Crude oil prices remained nearly unchanged following a 2% decline earlier in the week, as markets awaited possible developments in negotiations to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude dipped 0.03% to $62.47 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 0.07% to $58.84.
The stabilisation came after Iraq restored production at the West Qurna 2 oilfield operated by Russia’s Lukoil. The site, considered one of the world’s largest, had experienced a disruption that briefly tightened supply. Its restart weighed on prices, with both benchmarks falling more than $1 on Monday.
Ukraine negotiations influence market sentiment
Market participants are closely monitoring diplomatic progress following a meeting in London between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the leaders of the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Kyiv is expected to present a new peace proposal to Washington in the coming days, which may influence risk perception related to Russian oil flows.
At the same time, the Group of Seven (G7) nations and the European Union are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban. Such a measure would aim to further curtail Moscow’s energy revenues while increasing pressure on its shipping logistics.
US Federal Reserve and supply outlook in focus
Investors are also awaiting a strategic decision from the United States Federal Reserve regarding its benchmark interest rates. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 0.25-point cut, which could indirectly impact oil prices through the dollar and global growth expectations.
According to analysts at BMI, market fundamentals continue to point towards oversupply in 2026. However, they anticipate a gradual recovery in prices next year as US shale production slows and global consumption grows.
“Much will depend on the response of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to lower prices in the first quarter of 2026,” analysts said, noting that market balance could be restored by the end of the year.
