Iran: Oil Dependence Limits Alliances with Moscow and Beijing

Despite strong ties, Iran's dependence on oil revenues limits its ability to secure substantial strategic support from Russia and China amid current international and regional crises, according to several experts.

Share:

Gain full professional access to energynews.pro from 4.90$/month.
Designed for decision-makers, with no long-term commitment.

Over 30,000 articles published since 2021.
150 new market analyses every week to decode global energy trends.

Monthly Digital PRO PASS

Immediate Access
4.90$/month*

No commitment – cancel anytime, activation in 2 minutes.

*Special launch offer: 1st month at the indicated price, then 14.90 $/month, no long-term commitment.

Annual Digital PRO Pass

Full Annual Access
99$/year*

To access all of energynews.pro without any limits

*Introductory annual price for year one, automatically renewed at 149.00 $/year from the second year.

For several decades, Iran has maintained economic and strategic relations with Russia and China, primarily centered around oil transactions and occasional military cooperation. However, the nature of these relationships, heavily focused on sanctioned oil exchanges, currently limits the practical scope of these partnerships. Indeed, although Moscow and Beijing economically benefit from purchasing discounted Iranian oil, neither country is willing to jeopardize its other Middle Eastern relationships by actively defending Iran. This dynamic is particularly evident in the context of recent regional tensions involving Tehran.

Russia’s cautious stance towards Iran

Russia, engaged on multiple international fronts, notably in Eastern Europe, demonstrates marked caution towards Iran. According to Maria Snegovaya from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Russia avoids direct involvement in conflicts involving Iran to preserve its good relations with other states in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia and Israel. This strategic restraint is also motivated by economic interests linked to potential increases in oil prices resulting from regional escalation, allowing Moscow to offset losses due to Western sanctions. Russia, heavily dependent on oil revenues to balance its budget, thus navigates carefully through crises affecting Iran.

China: Balancing economic opportunities and strategic restraint

China maintains a similar stance, though its motivations differ slightly. Brian Hart, also an analyst at CSIS, notes that Beijing, while remaining a major trading partner with Iran, does not necessarily oppose moderate weakening of Tehran. Such a scenario could allow China to negotiate better prices for oil imports, a crucial component of its energy strategy. Nonetheless, economically, Iran remains secondary to China compared to Gulf countries, notably Saudi Arabia, with which trade volumes are significantly larger. This situation therefore limits China’s incentives to become more actively involved in regional crises to support Tehran.

North Korea emerges as potential actor in the Iranian equation

Another unpredictable actor that could disrupt this fragile regional balance is North Korea. Victor Cha, head of geopolitical affairs at CSIS, indicates that North Korea could play a significant role in rebuilding Iran’s nuclear program, leveraging its recent rapprochement with Moscow. According to Cha, Russia does not seem actively opposed to such potential collaboration, thereby allowing Pyongyang to act freely. This dynamic could introduce a new variable into the region, further complicating geopolitical and economic balances surrounding Iran.

These various factors highlight the real limitations of Iran’s strategic partnerships, constrained by the divergent economic and geopolitical interests of Moscow, Beijing, and now Pyongyang. A situation that raises questions about the sustainability and effectiveness of these alliances for Tehran in the face of future regional challenges.

Brasília has officially begun the process of joining the International Energy Agency, strengthening its strategic position on the global energy stage after years of close cooperation with the Paris-based organisation.
During a meeting in Beijing, Vladimir Putin called on Slovakia to suspend its energy deliveries to Ukraine, citing Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure as justification.
Vladimir Putin and Robert Fico met in China to address the war in Ukraine, regional security and energy relations between Russia and Slovakia.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico plans to meet Vladimir Putin in Beijing before receiving Volodymyr Zelensky in Bratislava, marking a diplomatic shift in his relations with Moscow and Kyiv.
Iran once again authorises the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its nuclear sites, following a suspension triggered by a dispute over responsibility for Israeli strikes.
First suspect linked to the Nord Stream pipeline explosions, a Ukrainian citizen challenged by Berlin opposes his judicial transfer from Italy.
Ukrainian drones targeted a nuclear power plant and a Russian oil terminal, increasing pressure on diplomatic talks as Moscow and Kyiv accuse each other of blocking any prospect of negotiation.
A Ukrainian national suspected of coordinating the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage has been apprehended in Italy, reigniting a judicial case with significant geopolitical implications across Europe.
Russia continues hydrocarbon deliveries to India and explores new outlets for liquefied natural gas, amid escalating trade tensions with the United States.
Azerbaijani energy infrastructure targeted in Ukraine raises concerns over the security of gas flows between Baku and Kyiv, just as a new supply agreement has been signed.
The suspension of 1,400 MW of electricity supplied by Iran to Iraq puts pressure on the Iraqi grid, while Tehran records a record 77 GW demand and must balance domestic consumption with regional obligations.
Beijing opposes the possible return of European trio sanctions against Iran, as the nuclear deal deadline approaches and diplomatic tensions rise around Tehran.
The United States plans to collaborate with Pakistan on critical minerals and hydrocarbons, exploring joint ventures and projects in strategic areas such as Balochistan.
Around 80 Russian technical standards for oil and gas have been internationally validated, notably by the United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Oman, according to the Institute of Oil and Gas Technological Initiatives.
Baghdad and Damascus intensify discussions to reactivate the 850 km pipeline closed since 2003, offering a Mediterranean alternative amid regional tensions and export blockages.
The two countries end 37 years of conflict with a 43-kilometer corridor under American control for 99 years. The infrastructure will transport 50 million tons of goods annually by 2030.
A senior official from the UN agency begins technical discussions with Iran on Monday, the first meeting since June strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
A free trade agreement between Indonesia and the Eurasian Economic Union is set to be signed in December, aiming to reduce tariffs on $3 bn worth of trade and boost bilateral commerce in the coming years.
The visit of India's national security adviser to Moscow comes as the United States threatens to raise tariffs on New Delhi due to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
Brussels freezes its retaliatory measures for six months as July 27 deal imposes 15% duties on European exports.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.