Community solar capacity in the United States: optimistic forecasts for 2028

Community solar installations in the United States declined by 6% in 2022 and by 13% in the first quarter of 2023. Despite these challenges, optimistic forecasts for community solar capacity to 2028 are emerging, with potential growth of 13% or a decline of 24% from baseline scenarios, according to joint reports from Wood Mackenzie and CSSA.

Share:

Gain full professional access to energynews.pro from 4.90$/month.
Designed for decision-makers, with no long-term commitment.

Over 30,000 articles published since 2021.
150 new market analyses every week to decode global energy trends.

Monthly Digital PRO PASS

Immediate Access
4.90$/month*

No commitment – cancel anytime, activation in 2 minutes.

*Special launch offer: 1st month at the indicated price, then 14.90 $/month, no long-term commitment.

Annual Digital PRO Pass

Full Annual Access
99$/year*

To access all of energynews.pro without any limits

*Introductory annual price for year one, automatically renewed at 149.00 $/year from the second year.

Community solar installations in the US declined by 6% year-on-year in 2022 and by 13% in the first quarter of 2023.

Recovery imminent: Optimistic forecasts for community solar capacity by 2028

According to the latest report published by Wood Mackenzie in collaboration with the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA), last year’s supply chain uncertainty and interconnection and siting issues have hampered growth in key markets in states such as Massachusetts and Maine. However, growth in community solar is set to resume from 2024 and continue over the next five years.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts that existing markets will grow at an average annual rate of 8%, with cumulative capacity of almost 14 gigawatts (GW) by 2028. This forecast does not include the potential of new programs, which could result in a significant increase.

“Near-term growth is driven by the continued success of programs in New York and Illinois, as well as positive policy updates in Maryland, Minnesota and New Jersey. In addition, California’s proposed new program could account for 20% of Wood Mackenzie’s national outlook between 2024 and 2028,” said Caitlin Connelly, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

Strategies for optimizing tax benefits: New directives impacting community solar power

As far as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is concerned, recent guidance from the US tax authorities on Investment Tax Credit (ITC) gross-ups has shown that it would be difficult to benefit from more than one gross-up. Developers of community solar systems can benefit from any of the three ITC (investment tax credit) bonuses, but are more likely to seek the low-income community (LMI) bonus first, according to the report’s findings.

The $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF) also offers new opportunities for community solar power. The US Environmental Protection Agency’s “Solar for All” fund, which is part of the GGRF, will be particularly beneficial for community solar, providing up to $7 billion in funding to support the creation and expansion of community solar programs, with a focus on supporting low-income communities.

“Community solar growth continues on a healthy long-term trajectory, with capacity expected to more than double over the next five years in existing state markets alone,” said Matt Hargarten, vice president of campaigns at CCSA. “These projections don’t take into account new states passing community solar laws or the billions of dollars in federal subsidies that we expect will be awarded to states to expand access to community solar. Needless to say, we’re only scratching the surface of how many people in the U.S. will be able to enjoy the benefits of community solar access by the end of the decade if regulators and lawmakers keep their foot on the gas pedal.”

Dual-tone forecast: Alternative scenarios redefine the future of community solar according to Wood Mackenzie and CSSA

The Wood Mackenzie and CSSA reports now include alternative forecasts for community solar, resulting in an increase or decrease in Wood Mackenzie’s base scenario. Alternative positive and negative forecasts highlight the impact of key market uncertainties such as supply chain dynamics, retail rate changes and state and federal policy updates.

In Wood Mackenzie’s optimistic scenario, national five-year forecasts increase by 13%, while they fall by 24% in the pessimistic scenario. The report also shows that subscriber management companies Arcadia, Perch Energy and Ampion now manage over 50% of the total community solar market.

“Promoters continue to use third parties to outsource subscriber acquisition and management services, especially as state subscription requirements become increasingly stringent and restrictive. Successful subscription management companies use software tools that reduce subscriber acquisition costs, and have business models geared towards targeting low-income populations,” concludes Connelly.

The solar photovoltaic installers sector will grow by 15 % annually through 2030, driven by residential demand, public incentives and increasing integration into urban projects.
The Norwegian subsidiary has launched the second phase of its projects in Maroua and Guider, bringing total capacity to 64.4 MW of solar and 38.2 MWh of storage with an annual target of 141.5 GWh.
ACWA Power secures the NOOR Midelt 2 and 3 solar-storage project in Morocco, outbidding European and Emirati competitors, with decisive backing from Gotion High-Tech’s storage technology.
QatarEnergy has signed a contract with Samsung C&T to build a solar power plant in Dukhan, set to reach 2,000 MW capacity by 2029, doubling the country’s solar output.
Billion Watts begins construction on its first solar-plus-storage project in Australia, scheduled for 2026, relying on an international consortium and a strategy focused on the volatility of the national electricity market.
Longroad Energy has closed financing and started construction of the 1000 Mile Solar project in Texas, with a capacity of 400 MWdc, supported by Meta and an international banking consortium.
Sunrun completed its fifth securitization deal of 2025, bringing non-recourse debt raised in the third quarter to over $1.5bn.
Odyssey Energy Solutions secures $7.5 million from British International Investment to support access to solar equipment under Nigeria’s DARES programme.
The Cameroonian government launches the extension of two solar plants in the Far North, increasing their combined capacity to 64.4 MWp, with support from international investors.
Statkraft has signed an agreement to sell solar and wind assets in India to Serentica Renewables, marking a strategic refocus on Europe and South America.
Independent power producer UNITe has been selected to develop two solar power plants on municipal land in Avèze and Malauzat, following a call for tenders by the French Energy Regulatory Commission.
Solar and storage accounted for 82% of new U.S. power capacity in early 2025, despite federal measures slowing their expansion.
Statkraft France won a 15.5 MWc solar project in Mourmelon-le-Grand during the latest national tender round, bringing its total awarded capacity to nearly 70 MWc in less than a year.
Solar growth in Central Europe has doubled that of the European Union since 2019, reshaping the energy mix and boosting battery manufacturing in the region.
Canadian energy producer Cordelio Power has completed commissioning of its Winfield solar project, a 150 MW facility backed by a 15-year contract with Microsoft and a $313mn structured financing deal.
Platform Anza surpassed its 2024 volume in just eight months, responding to developers’ urgency to secure projects ahead of regulatory and fiscal changes expected in 2026.
US-based AGCO has signed a ten-year virtual power purchase agreement with BRUC, covering a 100 MW solar project in Spain, to secure part of its European energy consumption.
Canadian developer Innergex has won all six projects of the Grenier des Essences portfolio for a total of 85 MW, strengthening its position in France’s ground-mounted solar sector.
Canadian Solar unveils its new low-carbon solar modules integrating heterojunction cells and thinner wafers, achieving up to 24.4% efficiency and a peak power output of 660 Wp.
Elmya Energy and Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure have created a joint venture targeting 4 GW of renewable energy projects in the United States, focused on the ERCOT and WECC markets.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.