Community solar capacity in the United States: optimistic forecasts for 2028

Community solar installations in the United States declined by 6% in 2022 and by 13% in the first quarter of 2023. Despite these challenges, optimistic forecasts for community solar capacity to 2028 are emerging, with potential growth of 13% or a decline of 24% from baseline scenarios, according to joint reports from Wood Mackenzie and CSSA.

Share:

Community solar installations in the US declined by 6% year-on-year in 2022 and by 13% in the first quarter of 2023.

Recovery imminent: Optimistic forecasts for community solar capacity by 2028

According to the latest report published by Wood Mackenzie in collaboration with the Coalition for Community Solar Access (CCSA), last year’s supply chain uncertainty and interconnection and siting issues have hampered growth in key markets in states such as Massachusetts and Maine. However, growth in community solar is set to resume from 2024 and continue over the next five years.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts that existing markets will grow at an average annual rate of 8%, with cumulative capacity of almost 14 gigawatts (GW) by 2028. This forecast does not include the potential of new programs, which could result in a significant increase.

“Near-term growth is driven by the continued success of programs in New York and Illinois, as well as positive policy updates in Maryland, Minnesota and New Jersey. In addition, California’s proposed new program could account for 20% of Wood Mackenzie’s national outlook between 2024 and 2028,” said Caitlin Connelly, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie.

Strategies for optimizing tax benefits: New directives impacting community solar power

As far as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is concerned, recent guidance from the US tax authorities on Investment Tax Credit (ITC) gross-ups has shown that it would be difficult to benefit from more than one gross-up. Developers of community solar systems can benefit from any of the three ITC (investment tax credit) bonuses, but are more likely to seek the low-income community (LMI) bonus first, according to the report’s findings.

The $27 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (GGRF) also offers new opportunities for community solar power. The US Environmental Protection Agency’s “Solar for All” fund, which is part of the GGRF, will be particularly beneficial for community solar, providing up to $7 billion in funding to support the creation and expansion of community solar programs, with a focus on supporting low-income communities.

“Community solar growth continues on a healthy long-term trajectory, with capacity expected to more than double over the next five years in existing state markets alone,” said Matt Hargarten, vice president of campaigns at CCSA. “These projections don’t take into account new states passing community solar laws or the billions of dollars in federal subsidies that we expect will be awarded to states to expand access to community solar. Needless to say, we’re only scratching the surface of how many people in the U.S. will be able to enjoy the benefits of community solar access by the end of the decade if regulators and lawmakers keep their foot on the gas pedal.”

Dual-tone forecast: Alternative scenarios redefine the future of community solar according to Wood Mackenzie and CSSA

The Wood Mackenzie and CSSA reports now include alternative forecasts for community solar, resulting in an increase or decrease in Wood Mackenzie’s base scenario. Alternative positive and negative forecasts highlight the impact of key market uncertainties such as supply chain dynamics, retail rate changes and state and federal policy updates.

In Wood Mackenzie’s optimistic scenario, national five-year forecasts increase by 13%, while they fall by 24% in the pessimistic scenario. The report also shows that subscriber management companies Arcadia, Perch Energy and Ampion now manage over 50% of the total community solar market.

“Promoters continue to use third parties to outsource subscriber acquisition and management services, especially as state subscription requirements become increasingly stringent and restrictive. Successful subscription management companies use software tools that reduce subscriber acquisition costs, and have business models geared towards targeting low-income populations,” concludes Connelly.

Solargik strengthens its presence in Italy with 85 MW of photovoltaic projects, including partnerships with Revalue and Free Ingegneria, to deploy systems on steep and agricultural land previously considered unexploitable.
EDF power solutions commissions two new photovoltaic plants in Moselle, together representing a capacity of 72 MWp, capable of annually supplying electricity equivalent to 36,000 inhabitants, or 30% of the population of Metz.
Solar energy reached a record share of 22.1% in the European electricity mix in June 2025, becoming for the first time the main source of electricity in the European Union, according to a report by think tank Ember.
Abraxas Power Corp. receives unprecedented authorisation from Maldivian authorities to develop a 100 MW solar project within a new special economic zone, targeting energy security and national climate objectives.
GreenYellow and Meaders Feeds Ltd finalise a second 1.8 MWp solar project under the Carbon Neutral Industrial Sector Scheme aimed at decarbonising the Mauritian industrial sector.
The Lime Kiln project, developed by Chaberton Energy and Pivot Energy, will provide renewable energy to 500 homes and businesses in Maryland, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
MPC Energy Solutions has signed an agreement to sell its stake in the Planeta Rica solar project in Colombia. The transaction is expected to close by the end of 2025.
EDF power solutions has commissioned the Aéroparc photovoltaic plant, with a capacity of 42.2 MWp, in the Territoire de Belfort, making a significant contribution to the region's energy transition.
The overproduction of solar energy in Europe is causing a drop in captured prices, undermining the profitability of producers. In Germany, Spain, and France, capture prices are at record lows, with profound economic consequences.
Altarea Energies Renouvelables has started work on its first ground-mounted photovoltaic plant in Caudecoste, marking a new milestone in its development. The 7 MWc plant is expected to be operational by the end of 2025.
Chinese manufacturer JinkoSolar has delivered three energy storage systems totalling 21.6 MWh to the American company Distributed Energy Infrastructure, as part of the Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target (SMART) programme aimed at strengthening local solar infrastructure.
TotalEnergies ENEOS has commissioned two photovoltaic installations totalling 1.2 MWp for marine logistics group Lee Huat Yap Kee in Singapore, under two long-term power purchase agreements with no upfront investment.
TCL Solar has concluded two exclusive partnerships in Suzhou with AU Solar and Madina Solar to supply 250 megawatts of photovoltaic modules to the Pakistani market, addressing rapidly growing local energy demand.
Mitrex secures Guinness Record for the largest integrated solar facade globally, combining photovoltaics and cultural art in Edmonton, covering over 30,000 square feet with installed capacity exceeding 265 kW.
EDF power solutions completes the acquisition of the 500MW Gate Burton solar-battery project from the company Low Carbon, strengthening its presence in hybrid photovoltaic-storage solutions in the United Kingdom.
The global photovoltaic films market is expected to see significant growth, reaching $41.59bn by 2034 due to the development of new solar technologies and the increasing demand for encapsulation suited to these innovations, a recent study indicates.
Italian group Plenitude has begun building Entrenúcleos, a 200 MW photovoltaic plant near Seville, set to deliver more than 435 GWh a year from 2026 while trialling locally produced green steel.
The state-controlled refiner has launched a 7.5-megawatt photovoltaic unit off Qingdao, the country’s first commercial installation designed for fully saline waters, intended to supply its future renewable hydrogen production.
The Emirati company Global South Utilities plans to install up to 250 MW of solar capacity in Madagascar, a project aimed at strengthening the national electricity network heavily reliant on fossil fuels and frequently facing energy deficits.
Emerging economies from the BRICS group now account for more than half of global solar electricity production in 2024, driven mainly by China, India, and Brazil, according to a new report by the organisation Ember.