The Ryazan refinery, owned by Rosneft and crucial to the Russian fuel market, was hit by Ukrainian drones on March 13. This incident, confirmed by Governor Pavel Malkov, comes against a backdrop of increasing attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, underlining an offensive strategy ahead of the Russian presidential elections.
Impact on refining capacity
In addition to Ryazan, the Kirishi and Novoshakhtinsky refineries were also targeted, with the latter suspending operations following the fall of drone debris. These attacks, along with Western sanctions, are having a significant impact on the Russian refining sector, which has seen throughput fall by 7% since the start of the year. Domestic pressure is mounting, with an anticipated rise in the price of products on the market and increased challenges in meeting domestic demand, particularly sensitive in the impending electoral context.
Government responses and sanctions
Faced with escalating attacks and pressure on domestic supplies, the Russian government imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports to bolster domestic stocks. However, the effectiveness of this measure has yet to be demonstrated, as pump prices have shown little reaction to similar restrictions in the past. Renewed attacks add another layer of complexity to the management of fuel supply and demand in Russia.
Consequences for the Global Energy Market
These developments are heightening uncertainty on world energy markets, with potential repercussions on oil prices and the stability of supplies. The disruption of Russian refining capacity could lead to adjustments in oil trade flows, exacerbating tensions in a volatile market. Analysts are closely monitoring the implications of these attacks to anticipate future movements in crude and refined product prices.
The attacks on Russian oil infrastructure signal a potentially new and more intense phase in the conflict, with significant implications for regional and global energy security. As Russia prepares for presidential elections against a backdrop of heightened internal and external pressure, the outcome of these conflicting dynamics could redefine the energy and geopolitical balances in the region.
