Towards a “Winter of Grumbling”?

At the opening of the UN General Assembly, the UN Secretary General warns against a "winter of discontent".

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The U.N. secretary-general warned Tuesday at the opening of the annual General Assembly that a “winter of discontent is on the horizon” in a world “paralyzed” by divisions despite mounting crises, from the war in Ukraine to global warming.

“The crisis of purchasing power is raging, confidence is crumbling, inequality is exploding, our planet is burning,” and yet, “we are stuck with a colossal global dysfunction,” said Antonio Guterres as he opened this week’s high-level United Nations General Assembly.

“These crises threaten the very future of humanity and the fate of the planet,” he said. “Let us not delude ourselves. We are in rough seas. A winter of global discontent is on the horizon.

After the Secretary General, for several days, dozens of heads of state and government from all over the world will speak at this annual diplomatic grand mass which resumes in person after two years disrupted by Covid-19.

Traditionally, this first day is dominated by the speech of the American president who, as the leader of the host country of the UN headquarters, speaks first. But exceptionally — as on very rare occasions in the past — this will not be the case: Joe Biden, who was on Monday at the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, has postponed his speech to Wednesday.

“North-South “fracking

Among the dangers that threaten the world mentioned by the Secretary General, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

While Moscow announced on Tuesday a referendum to annex the Kherson region under the control of its troops, this war will be at the heart of this high-level diplomatic week.

This includes an intervention on Wednesday by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — by video thanks to a special authorization voted last week by the member states — and a Security Council meeting on Thursday at the level of foreign ministers.

But the countries of the South are becoming increasingly annoyed that the West is focusing its attention on Ukraine.

In an attempt to respond to the concerns of some countries, the Americans and Europeans are holding a ministerial meeting on Tuesday on food security, a consequence of this war from which the whole planet is suffering.

And French President Emmanuel Macron, who is due to be at the podium midday Tuesday, will insist on the need to prevent “fracturing” between countries of the North and the South, the Elysée Palace said, adding that the head of state will hold a dinner on this theme with several other leaders.

These tensions caused by the war in Ukraine echo the North-South resentment in the fight against climate change.

The poor countries, on the front line of the devastating impacts of a warming for which they are not responsible, are fighting in particular for the rich countries to finally keep their promises of financial aid.

A “suicidal war

“It is high time to move beyond these endless discussions,” said Antonio Guterres on Tuesday.

Attacking the big fossil fuel companies that “feast” on profits inflated by the war in Ukraine, he also called on rich countries to tax these profits to “redirect” them in part to countries suffering “loss and damage” due to the devastating impacts of climate change and to populations suffering from inflation.

With two months to go before the UN COP27 climate conference in Egypt, “climate action has taken a back seat” to other crises, he also denounced, calling for an end to “our suicidal war on nature”.

On Tuesday, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are also expected to take the podium.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raissi is also in New York this week for his first General Assembly and the nuclear issue could once again be at the center of discussions.

Mr. Raissi was expected to meet Tuesday with Emmanuel Macron, who has encouraged him in recent months during telephone conversations to accept the conditions proposed by the Europeans to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement that was supposed to prevent Tehran from acquiring the atomic bomb in exchange for the lifting of sanctions suffocating its economy.

This high-level week has, however, some notable absentees, in particular Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The United States has granted Trinidad and Tobago a special licence to resume negotiations with Venezuela on the Dragon gas field, partially lifting restrictions imposed on the Venezuelan energy sector.
Ambassadors of European Union member states have approved the transmission of a legislative proposal to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports by January 2028 to the Council of Ministers.
The State Duma has approved Russia’s formal withdrawal from a treaty signed with the United States on the elimination of military-grade plutonium, ending over two decades of strategic nuclear cooperation.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said it was not in Poland’s interest to extradite to Germany a Ukrainian citizen suspected of taking part in the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022.
Al-Harfi and SCLCO signed agreements with Syrian authorities to develop solar and wind capacity, amid an ongoing energy rapprochement between Riyadh and Damascus.
Faced with risks to Middle Eastern supply chains, Thai and Japanese refiners are turning to US crude, backed by tariff incentives and strategies aligned with ongoing bilateral trade discussions.
France intercepted a tanker linked to Russian exports, prompting Emmanuel Macron to call for a coordinated European response to hinder vessels bypassing oil sanctions.
The activation of the snapback mechanism reinstates all UN sanctions on Iran, directly affecting the defence, financial and maritime trade sectors.
Commissioner Dan Jørgensen visits Greenland to expand energy ties with the European Union, amid plans to double EU funding for the 2028–2034 period.
European and Iranian foreign ministers meet in New York to try to prevent the reinstatement of UN sanctions linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announces a bilateral agreement with Mexico including targeted investments in energy corridors, logistics infrastructure and cross-border security.
The US president has called for an immediate end to Russian oil imports by NATO countries, denouncing a strategic contradiction as sanctions against Moscow are being considered.
Tehran withdrew a resolution denouncing attacks on its nuclear facilities, citing US pressure on IAEA members who feared suspension of Washington’s voluntary contributions.
Poland’s energy minister calls on European Union member states to collectively commit to halting Russian oil purchases within two years, citing increasing geopolitical risks.
Athens and Tripoli engage in a negotiation process to define their exclusive economic zones in the Mediterranean, amid geopolitical tensions and underwater energy stakes.
European powers demand concrete steps from Tehran on nuclear issue or United Nations sanctions will be reinstated, as IAEA inspections remain blocked and tensions with Washington persist.
Brussels confirms its target to end all Russian energy imports by 2028, despite growing diplomatic pressure from Washington amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Donald Trump threatens to escalate US sanctions against Russia, but only if NATO member states stop all Russian oil imports, which remain active via certain pipelines.
The two countries agreed to develop infrastructure dedicated to liquefied natural gas to strengthen Europe's energy security and boost transatlantic trade.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calls for modernising the oil industry and expanding export markets as Tehran faces the possible reactivation of 2015 nuclear deal sanctions.

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