OPEC Revises Down its Oil Demand Forecasts for 2024 and 2025

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) adjusts its monthly forecasts, predicting a downward revision in global oil consumption for 2024 and 2025 while highlighting the critical role of non-OECD economies.

Share:

Subscribe for unlimited access to all energy sector news.

Over 150 multisector articles and analyses every week.

Your 1st year at 99 $*

then 199 $/year

*renews at 199$/year, cancel anytime before renewal.

Global oil demand continues to grow but at a slower pace than initially anticipated. In its latest monthly report published on Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) adjusted its forecasts downward for 2024 and 2025.

The report estimates that global oil consumption will reach **103.82 million barrels per day (mb/d)** in 2024, up from 102.21 mb/d in 2023. For 2025, consumption is expected to be **105.27 mb/d**, representing a downward revision of 210,000 barrels per day for 2024 and 90,000 barrels per day for 2025 compared to earlier estimates.

Adjustments Based on New Data

OPEC attributes these revisions mainly to updates in data for the first three quarters of 2024. These adjustments reflect changes in demand across both OECD and non-OECD regions.

According to the report, non-OECD economies, particularly **China and India**, remain the primary drivers of oil demand growth. China, buoyed by steady economic growth, plays a crucial role, supported by India’s performance and other emerging economies.

Conversely, within OECD countries, the situation is mixed. **The Americas** continue to act as a positive factor with robust demand, while Europe provides more moderate contributions. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region within the OECD sees stagnant demand.

Impact of OPEC+ Decisions

In early December, OPEC+ (comprising OPEC and its allies) extended its oil production cuts to maintain market balance. This decision, anticipated by observers, had a limited impact on crude prices, already influenced by geopolitical factors.

For instance, recent uncertainties in Syria—though not a major oil producer—have raised concerns about global supply due to heightened regional tensions.

Outlook and Challenges

Despite these revisions, OPEC remains optimistic about overall demand growth, driven by emerging economies. However, these forecasts reflect global economic uncertainties and the challenges posed by energy transition policies in various regions.

Commercial crude oil inventories fell more than expected in the United States, while gasoline demand crossed a key threshold, offering slight support to crude prices.
The United States extends a 30-day reprieve to NIS, controlled by Gazprom, as Serbia seeks to maintain energy security amid pressure on the Russian energy sector.
With net output reaching 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, CNOOC Limited continues its expansion, strengthening both domestic and international capacities despite volatile crude oil prices.
The Daenerys oil discovery could increase Talos Energy’s proved reserves by more than 25% and reach 65,000 barrels per day, marking a strategic shift in its Gulf of Mexico portfolio.
The United States will apply 50% tariffs on Indian exports in response to New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil, further straining trade relations between the two partners.
Rising energy demand is driving investments in petrochemical filtration, a market growing at an average annual rate of 5.9% through 2030.
Chevron has opened talks with Libya’s National Oil Corporation on a possible return to exploration and production after leaving the country in 2010 due to unsuccessful drilling.
The Impact Assessment Agency of Canada opens public consultation on its 2024-2025 draft monitoring report for offshore oil and gas exploratory drilling off Newfoundland and Labrador.
Cenovus Energy announces the acquisition of MEG Energy through a mixed transaction aimed at strengthening its position in oil sands while optimizing cost structure and integrated production.
Vantage Drilling International Ltd. extends the validity of its conditional letter of award until August 29, without changes to the initial terms.
Libya is preparing to host an energy forum in partnership with American companies to boost investment in its oil and gas sectors.
Washington increases pressure on Iran’s oil sector by sanctioning a Greek shipper and its affiliates, accused of facilitating crude exports to Asia despite existing embargoes.
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management formalizes a strategic environmental review, setting the framework for 30 oil sales in the Gulf of America by 2040, in line with a new federal law and current executive directives.
Amid repeated disruptions on the Druzhba pipeline, attributed to Ukrainian strikes, Hungary has requested U.S. support to secure its oil supply.
Norwegian producer Aker BP raises its oil potential forecast for the Omega Alfa well, part of the Yggdrasil project, with estimated resources reaching up to 134 million barrels of oil equivalent.
The gradual restart of BP’s Whiting refinery following severe flooding is driving price and logistics adjustments across several Midwestern U.S. states.
Bruno Moretti, current special secretary to the presidency, is in pole position to lead Petrobras’ board of directors after Pietro Mendes’ resignation for a regulatory role.
Next Bridge Hydrocarbons completes a $6 million private debt raise to support its involvement in the Panther project while restructuring part of its existing debt.
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical reported a net loss in the first half of 2025, impacted by reduced demand for fuels and chemical products, as well as declining sales volumes.
Zener International Holding takes over Petrogal’s assets in Guinea-Bissau, backed by a $24 million structured financing deal arranged with support from Ecobank and the West African Development Bank.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.

or

Go unlimited with our annual offer: $99 for the 1styear year, then $ 199/year.