Oil prices rise on positive US economic signs

Oil prices rose slightly after the publication of a positive indicator on the US economy, reassuring investors about future demand despite persistent geopolitical risks.
Prix du pétrole en hausse

Partagez:

Oil prices are rising slightly, buoyed by a positive economic indicator in the United States that reassures investors about economic health and future demand.
This article explores the factors influencing this rise, the US economic outlook and current geopolitical risks.

Impact of U.S. Economic Indicators

Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are up by 0.16% and 0.18% respectively.
This follows the publication of an indicator showing a recovery in US services activity in July.
This better-than-expected rebound eased fears of an imminent US recession, despite an employment report showing a sharper-than-expected slowdown.
SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop tempered this optimism, pointing out that prices had hit a six-month low the previous day.
He emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the direction of the US economy, stressing the importance of watching for signs of a possible recession.

Chinese demand and geopolitical risks

Weak oil demand in China this year remains a key price driver.
A recession in the US could trigger a significant drop in prices, exacerbated by anemic Chinese demand.
PVM Energy analyst John Evans also points out that geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the market.
Rockets were fired at an Iraqi base housing US troops, causing injuries.
The attack comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions between Iran, its allies and Israel, following assassinations of key Hamas and Hezbollah figures blamed on Israel.

Political reactions and outlook

In response to these tensions, US President Joe Biden convened an emergency meeting, during which Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for a ceasefire in Gaza.
This escalation of violence, initiated by the Hamas attack on Israel, has triggered a cycle of reprisals in the region.
The combination of these economic and geopolitical factors is creating significant volatility in the oil market.
Investors remain cautious, keeping a close eye on economic developments in the United States and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Looking ahead, analysts are divided on the outlook for oil prices.
Some predict stabilization if the US economy avoids recession and geopolitical tensions abate.
Others anticipate price falls if economic uncertainties and regional conflicts intensify.

British company Prax Group has filed for insolvency, putting hundreds of jobs at its Lindsey oil site at risk, according to Sky News.
Orlen announces the definitive halt of its Russian oil purchases for the Czech Republic, marking the end of deliveries by Rosneft following the contract expiry, amid evolving logistics and diversification of regional supply sources.
Equinor and Shell launch Adura, a new joint venture consolidating their main offshore assets in the United Kingdom, aiming to secure energy supply with an expected production of over 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Equinor announces a new oil discovery estimated at between 9 and 15 mn barrels at the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, strengthening the reserve potential in Norway's northern region.
Sierra Leone relaunches an ambitious offshore exploration campaign, using a 3D seismic survey to evaluate up to 60 potential oil blocks before opening a new licensing round as early as next October.
Faced with recurrent shortages, Zambia is reorganising its fuel supply chain, notably issuing licences for operating new tanker trucks and service stations to enhance national energy security and reduce external dependence.
The closure of the Grangemouth refinery has triggered a record increase in UK oil inventories, highlighting growing dependence on imports and an expanding deficit in domestic refining capacity.
Mexco Energy Corporation reports an annual net profit of $1.71mn, up 27%, driven by increased hydrocarbon production despite persistently weak natural gas prices in the Permian Basin.
S&P Global Ratings lowers Ecopetrol's global rating to BB following Colombia's sovereign downgrade, while Moody’s Investors Service confirms the group's Ba1 rating with a stable outlook.
Shell group publicly clarifies it is neither considering discussions nor approaches for a potential takeover of its British rival BP, putting an end to recent media speculation about a possible merger between the two oil giants.
The anticipated increase in the tax deduction rate may encourage independent refineries in Shandong to restart fuel oil imports, compensating for limited crude oil import quotas.
Petro-Victory Energy Corp. starts drilling of the AND-5 well in the Potiguar Basin, Brazil, as the first phase of an operation financed through its strategic partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Energia.
The Texan Port of Corpus Christi has completed major widening and deepening work designed to accommodate more supertankers, thus strengthening its strategic position in the US market for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is offering its interest in Prudhoe Bay, North America’s largest oil field, as part of its planned dissolution, assisted by RedOaks Energy Advisors for this strategic asset transaction.
CNOOC Limited’s Hong Kong subsidiary and KazMunayGas have concluded a nine-year exploration and production contract covering nine hundred and fifty-eight square kilometres in Kazakhstan, sharing investment and operations equally.
Donald Trump announced that the United States will no longer oppose Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, immediately triggering a drop in global crude oil prices and profoundly reshaping international energy trade partnerships.
Research firm S&P Global Commodity Insights lifts its outlook for the fourth straight year, betting on three point five mn barrels per day from 2025 despite lower prices.
Enbridge plans to expand its infrastructure to increase oil transportation from the American Midwest to the Gulf Coast, anticipating rising exports and addressing current market logistical constraints.
US commercial crude inventories significantly decline by 3.1 million barrels, widely surpassing initial forecasts and immediately pushing international oil prices higher.
The UK could have hydrocarbon reserves twice as large as current official estimates, according to Offshore Energies UK, highlighting the impact of fiscal policies on forecasts and the economic future of the North Sea.