Oil prices rise on positive US economic signs

Oil prices rose slightly after the publication of a positive indicator on the US economy, reassuring investors about future demand despite persistent geopolitical risks.

Share:

Prix du pétrole en hausse

Oil prices are rising slightly, buoyed by a positive economic indicator in the United States that reassures investors about economic health and future demand.
This article explores the factors influencing this rise, the US economic outlook and current geopolitical risks.

Impact of U.S. Economic Indicators

Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices are up by 0.16% and 0.18% respectively.
This follows the publication of an indicator showing a recovery in US services activity in July.
This better-than-expected rebound eased fears of an imminent US recession, despite an employment report showing a sharper-than-expected slowdown.
SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop tempered this optimism, pointing out that prices had hit a six-month low the previous day.
He emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the direction of the US economy, stressing the importance of watching for signs of a possible recession.

Chinese demand and geopolitical risks

Weak oil demand in China this year remains a key price driver.
A recession in the US could trigger a significant drop in prices, exacerbated by anemic Chinese demand.
PVM Energy analyst John Evans also points out that geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on the market.
Rockets were fired at an Iraqi base housing US troops, causing injuries.
The attack comes against a backdrop of heightened tensions between Iran, its allies and Israel, following assassinations of key Hamas and Hezbollah figures blamed on Israel.

Political reactions and outlook

In response to these tensions, US President Joe Biden convened an emergency meeting, during which Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for a ceasefire in Gaza.
This escalation of violence, initiated by the Hamas attack on Israel, has triggered a cycle of reprisals in the region.
The combination of these economic and geopolitical factors is creating significant volatility in the oil market.
Investors remain cautious, keeping a close eye on economic developments in the United States and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Looking ahead, analysts are divided on the outlook for oil prices.
Some predict stabilization if the US economy avoids recession and geopolitical tensions abate.
Others anticipate price falls if economic uncertainties and regional conflicts intensify.

Serbia has secured a new 30-day reprieve from the application of US sanctions targeting NIS, operator of the country’s only refinery, which is majority owned by Gazprom.
OMS Energy Technologies Inc. reports solid financial results for 2025, driven by marked revenue growth, improved gross margin and a reinforced cash position in a shifting market.
Five employees injured in an explosion at the Pascagoula refinery are suing Chevron for negligence, seeking significant compensation and alleging major breaches of safety regulations.
South Korea and Japan are reinforcing coordination on strategic stocks and oil logistics as growing dependence on Gulf imports and geopolitical tensions affect the Asian market.
Sonatrach continues to assess underexploited oil and gas areas with the support of Sinopec, following a gradual strategy to strengthen its position on the regional energy market.
Venezuelan oil group PDVSA is mobilising to restart export operations under conditions similar to previous US licences, as Washington prepares to again authorise its main partners to operate.
Two separate strikes in the Vaca Muerta region threaten to disrupt oil and gas production after historic records, with unions protesting layoffs and unpaid wages in a rapidly expanding sector.
US refiner Phillips 66 posted quarterly earnings above expectations, driven by high utilisation rates and lower maintenance costs across its facilities.
The advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice increases legal exposure for states and companies involved in the licensing or expansion of oil and gas projects, according to several international law experts.
US oil company Chevron has received new approval from American authorities to relaunch its operations in Venezuela, halted since May following the revocation of its licence under the Trump administration.
Turkey has officially submitted to Iraq a draft agreement aimed at renewing and expanding their energy cooperation, now including oil, natural gas, petrochemicals and electricity in a context of intensified negotiations.
The Dangote refinery complex in Nigeria is planning a scheduled forty-day shutdown to replace the catalyst and repair the reactor of its gasoline production unit, starting in early December.
Indonesia Energy plans to drill two new wells on the Kruh block in Indonesia before the end of 2025, following a 60% increase in proven reserves thanks to recent seismic campaigns.
CanAsia Energy Corp. confirms it has submitted a bid for oil and gas exploration and production in Thailand, reinforcing its international strategy within a consortium and targeting a block in the 25th onshore round.
The decrease in US commercial crude oil stocks exceeds expectations, driven by a sharp increase in exports and higher refinery activity, while domestic production shows a slight decline.
Pacific Petroleum and VCP Operating finalise the $9.65mn acquisition of oil assets in Wyoming, backed by a consortium of Japanese institutional investors and a technology innovation programme focused on real-world asset tokenisation.
Repsol's net profit fell to €603mn in the first half, impacted by oil market volatility and a massive power outage that disrupted its activities in Spain and Portugal.
A USD 1.1 billion refinery project in Ndola, signed with Fujian Xiang Xin Corporation, aims to meet Zambia's domestic demand and potentially support regional exports.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OIES) confirmed its Brent price forecast at 69 USD/b in 2025 and 67 USD/b in 2026, while adjusting its 2025 surplus forecast to 280,000 barrels per day.
PermRock Royalty Trust has declared a monthly distribution of 395,288.31 USD, or 0.032491 USD per trust unit, payable on August 14, 2025, based on production revenues from May 2025.