Iran Nuclear: Joe Biden at the Relaunch

The Iran nuclear deal, under strain since the US withdrawal in 2018, is raising hopes of appeasement under the incoming Biden administration.

Share:

Nucléaire Iranien: Joe Biden

The Iran nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was signed in 2015 by France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the United States, China, Russia, the European Union and Iran. The aim of the text was to control Iran’s nuclear program and lift economic sanctions against the country.

Calling the agreement a lie, Donald Trump’s administration decided to tighten economic sanctions against Tehran and exit the nuclear deal on May 8, 2018. In response, Iran has gradually broken away from the rules imposed by this agreement. A situation of high tension that could perhaps evolve under new President Joe Biden.

A US return to the Iran nuclear deal

Joe Biden told the New York Times that he would like to return to the Iran nuclear deal signed by Barack Obama and lift economic sanctions. However, the return of the United States is conditional on Iran’s strict compliance with the rules of the agreement.

Iran possessed more than 12 times the amount of enriched uranium authorized by the agreement

In particular, Iran has breached the 3.6% ceiling on uranium enrichment, reaching 4.5% according to BBC. The International Atomic Energy Agency has pointed out that Iran possesses more than 12 times the amount of enriched uranium authorized by the agreement. A development that could lead to the creation of a nuclear bomb, even though Iran has always stressed that its nuclear ambitions are peaceful.

For the future president of the United States, this agreement is the best way to avoid an arms race in the Middle East and guarantee stability in the region.

The latter declared:

“The last thing we need in this part of the world is an increase in nuclear capacity.”

 

Tehran may finally be ready to respect the agreement

According to BBC News, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told Aljazeera that the country would meet its commitments under the 2015 agreement if Joe Biden lifted all sanctions.

Iran demands guarantees

Moreover, Teheran has enjoined the incoming Biden administration to prove to them that once they join the agreement, they will not leave it like their predecessors. Both parties seem to want the other to readopt the terms of the agreement first.

However, the Iranian government has rejected any negotiations on extending certain clauses that expire in 2025. Joe Biden had floated the idea of extending by 15 years the clause that prevents Iran from producing uranium at the level needed for a nuclear weapon.

Iranian government refuses UN supervision

On December 2, the Iranian parliament passed a bill that would prevent UN inspections of its nuclear sites. It also demands that the government resume uranium enrichment at 20%, well above the 3.67% agreed under the deal. A law that is not supported by President Hassan Rouhani, and which could be repealed if the US lifts sanctions, according to Javad Zarif.

The latter told The Guardian:

“The Joint Program of Action and any international agreement is not a revolving door. It’s not that you can come in, impose restrictions on others, enjoy the privileges of membership and suddenly decide to leave and inflict $150 billion [110 milliards de livres] in damage on the Iranian people.”

 

Heightened tensions as Donald Trump’s term draws to a close

Donald Trump’s administration plans to step up sanctions against Tehran for his last few in office. According to Elliott Abrams, US special envoy for Iran, this decision has heightened tensions between the two countries and raised hopes of appeasement in Joe Biden.

The latter declared for Reuter:

“We’ll have next week, and the week after, and the week after that – throughout December and January, there will be sanctions that deal with weapons, weapons of mass destruction, human rights. … So this will continue for another two months, until the end.”

The United States is ready to add new sanctions

The US ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, added that the US could impose new sanctions. Notably against Lebanese personalities for corruption and aiding the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group. These relations were further complicated by the November 27 assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a senior scientist in Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. An act perpetrated, for Teheran, by Israel and Washington.

US President Donald Trump’s latest actions could therefore make dialogue between Joe Biden and Tehran even more difficult.

The European commitment to purchase $250bn of American energy annually raises questions about its technical and economic feasibility in light of limited export capacity.
A major customs agreement sealed in Scotland sets a 15% tariff on most European exports to the United States, accompanied by significant energy purchase commitments and cross-investments between the two powers.
Qatar has warned that it could stop its liquefied natural gas deliveries to the European Union in response to the new European directive on due diligence and climate transition.
The Brazilian mining sector is drawing US attention as diplomatic discussions and tariff measures threaten to disrupt the balance of strategic minerals trade.
Donald Trump has raised the prospect of tariffs on countries buying Russian crude, but according to Reuters, enforcement remains unlikely due to economic risks and unfulfilled past threats.
Afghanistan and Turkmenistan reaffirmed their commitment to deepening their bilateral partnership during a meeting between officials from both countries, with a particular focus on major infrastructure projects and energy cooperation.
The European Union lowers the price cap on Russian crude oil and extends sanctions to vessels and entities involved in circumvention, as coordination with the United States remains pending.
Brazil adopts new rules allowing immediate commercial measures to counter the U.S. decision to impose an exceptional 50% customs tariff on all Brazilian exports, threatening stability in bilateral trade valued at billions of dollars.
Several international agencies have echoed warnings by Teresa Ribera, Vice-President of the European Commission, about commercial risks related to Chinese competition, emphasizing the EU's refusal to engage in a price war.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development lends €400 million to JSC Energocom to diversify Moldova's gas and electricity supply, historically dependent on Russian imports via Ukraine.
BRICS adopt a joint financial framework aimed at supporting emerging economies while criticizing European carbon border tax mechanisms, deemed discriminatory and risky for their strategic trade relations.
The European Commission is launching an alliance with member states and industrial players to secure the supply of critical chemicals, amid growing competition from the United States and China.
Trade between Russia and Saudi Arabia grew by over 60% in 2024 to surpass USD 3.8 billion, according to Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Anton Alikhanov, who outlined new avenues for industrial cooperation.
Meeting in Rio, BRICS nations urge global energy market stability, openly condemning Western sanctions and tariff mechanisms in a tense economic and geopolitical context.
Despite strong ties, Iran's dependence on oil revenues limits its ability to secure substantial strategic support from Russia and China amid current international and regional crises, according to several experts.
Egypt’s Electricity Minister engages in new talks with Envision Group, Windey, LONGi, China Energy, PowerChina, and ToNGWEI to boost local industry and attract investments in renewable energy.
The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz places Gulf producers under intense pressure, highlighting their diplomatic and logistical limitations as a blockage threatens 20 million daily barrels of hydrocarbons destined for global markets.
Budapest and Bratislava jointly reject the European Commission's proposal to ban Russian energy supplies, highlighting significant economic risks and a direct threat to their energy security, days ahead of a key meeting.
Libya officially contests Greece's allocation of offshore oil permits, exacerbating regional tensions over disputed maritime areas south of Crete, rich in hydrocarbons and contested by several Mediterranean states.
Hungary, supported by Slovakia, strongly expresses opposition to the European Commission's plan to phase out imports of Russian energy resources, citing major economic and energy impacts for Central Europe.