popular articles

Gasoline Exports to Nigeria Slump amid Dangote Refinery Start Up

Gasoline exports to Nigeria have sharply dropped in October, as the Dangote refinery operates at half capacity, risking a fuel deficit without additional imports.

Please share:

Gasoline shipments to Nigeria have seen a significant decline in the first two weeks of October, according to ship tracking data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. This drop coincides with the arrival of domestic supply from the Lagos-based Dangote refinery, which appears to have reduced the appetite for exports.

However, with the new 650,000 b/d refinery operating at around half its capacity and the key gasoline-producing unit, the RFCC (Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking), remaining unstable as it ramps up, traders have warned that Nigeria could still face a substantial fuel deficit in the absence of imported supply.

A Significant Decline in Exports

According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, just 280,400 barrels of gasoline and blendstock were dispatched to Nigeria in the first week of the month, ending Oct. 6, via one MR, down from a weekly average of 1.3 million barrels in August. In the week ending Oct. 13, only one product tanker reported shipping gasoline to Nigeria, with just 290,567 barrels departing from Antwerp for delivery to Lagos. These two October cargoes fall significantly lower than the 12 dispatched in the first half of August and September respectively.

Since Oct. 8, no gasoline has been reported shipped to Nigeria. This slump in export activity signals the first disruption to a previously well-established flow, mostly from Northwest Europe to West Africa, with the arrival of its own domestic refining capacity.

Reduced Dependence and Risk of Deficit

Without its own domestic supply chains, Nigeria – Africa’s largest demand hub – has typically imported around 200,000-300,000 b/d of gasoline to service the bulk of its fuel supply, creating a dependency that Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, sought to overhaul with the inauguration of his new refinery in January.

In September, the refinery reached the key milestone of producing its first gasoline supplies from its reformer, followed by its higher-yield RFCC, which continues to be ramped up. Sources at the refinery have said that Nigeria’s state oil company, NNPC (Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation), has so far been its sole buyer of gasoline, having taken delivery of 90 million liters (around 570,000 barrels) from the refinery.

Outlook and Future Challenges

Yet, with shipments to Lagos appearing to preemptively decline, traders have flagged a potential shortfall in availability as domestic production remains insufficient to service consumption of over 300,000 b/d.

“There is no schedule for gasoline coming from Europe to Nigeria at the moment,” one trade source said, speculating that the new refinery might meet at most a quarter of domestic demand.

“The rest will have to come from whatever is in the Offshore Lome market,” the trader added, citing recently heard values of $35-$40/mt above Platts 10 ppm barges.

Impact on the Global Market

Meanwhile, lower arbitrage appetite from Northwest Europe has led to decreased buying activity for FOB AR 10 ppm barges in the Platts Market on Close assessment process, sources said.

Dangote Supply Channels

When the refinery permanently displaces previous gasoline flows will depend on the smooth ramp-up of its operations and delivery of material to the domestic market.

Sources at the refinery said that a contract remains in place with NNPC to act as the sole buyer for its gasoline supply, despite an announcement from the country’s finance minister, Wale Edun, that Nigerian marketers are now free to buy directly from the refinery.

An executive at the refinery said that the plant’s RFCC, set to unlock higher gasoline production volumes, could be stabilized by Nov. 11, although Commodity Insights analysts have forecast that the unit will only be contributing higher supplies from February 2025.

A faster-than-expected ramp-up would accelerate pressure on global gasoline cracks in the Atlantic Basin to as early as first-quarter 2025, though as a very large single-train refinery, the plant remains exposed to outages and disruptions.

Commodity Insights anticipates that the refinery will displace around 260,000 b/d of gasoline flows from Europe to West Africa by 2026, while sweet hydrocracking margins are seen as unlikely to recover substantially from an expected average of minus $1.50/b through Q4 2024 in Q1 2025.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

Iraq has signed a deal with China’s Geo-Jade and Hilal al-Basra to develop an integrated project combining oil, refining and electricity in the country’s south.
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels last week, defying market expectations, according to data published by the US Energy Information Administration.
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels last week, defying market expectations, according to data published by the US Energy Information Administration.
As Venezuelan elections approach concerning the oil-rich disputed Essequibo territory, Guyana emphasizes increased vigilance, citing risks to its energy and territorial sovereignty amid Caracas' claims. ##
As Venezuelan elections approach concerning the oil-rich disputed Essequibo territory, Guyana emphasizes increased vigilance, citing risks to its energy and territorial sovereignty amid Caracas' claims. ##
GATE Energy and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly pursue international offshore contracts, combining engineering, construction and commissioning capabilities.
GATE Energy and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly pursue international offshore contracts, combining engineering, construction and commissioning capabilities.
BW Offshore has handed over the operations of the FPSO BW Adolo to BW Energy Gabon while retaining ownership and the vessel lease under previously agreed terms.
Savannah Energy recorded a 19% rise in revenues in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the integration of a new asset in Nigeria and improved cash flows.
Savannah Energy recorded a 19% rise in revenues in the first quarter of 2025, driven by the integration of a new asset in Nigeria and improved cash flows.
Petrobras reaches a crucial milestone for exploring the Foz do Amazonas basin, yet stringent conditions for upcoming permits raise questions about future operations in this strategic region.
Petrobras reaches a crucial milestone for exploring the Foz do Amazonas basin, yet stringent conditions for upcoming permits raise questions about future operations in this strategic region.
PermRock Royalty Trust will pay a monthly distribution of USD371,192.79 on June 13, based on oil and gas production from March 2025 and calculated at USD0.030511 per trust unit.
PermRock Royalty Trust will pay a monthly distribution of USD371,192.79 on June 13, based on oil and gas production from March 2025 and calculated at USD0.030511 per trust unit.
Mazoon Mining, a subsidiary of Minerals Development Oman (MDO), has secured USD 270 million in financing and signed key contracts for Oman’s largest copper concentrate project, aimed at supporting the country’s mining sector.
Côte d'Ivoire signed an agreement with Yaatra Ventures to build a 170,000 barrels/day oil refinery, a $5.1 billion investment aimed at boosting national refining capacity.
Côte d'Ivoire signed an agreement with Yaatra Ventures to build a 170,000 barrels/day oil refinery, a $5.1 billion investment aimed at boosting national refining capacity.
The International Court of Justice ruled on the validity of treaties between Gabon and Equatorial Guinea over three strategic offshore islets potentially rich in oil.
The International Court of Justice ruled on the validity of treaties between Gabon and Equatorial Guinea over three strategic offshore islets potentially rich in oil.
Guyana’s Parliament passed a new law requiring oil operators to provide mandatory financial coverage for damages caused by hydrocarbon spills.
Guyana’s Parliament passed a new law requiring oil operators to provide mandatory financial coverage for damages caused by hydrocarbon spills.
Under pressure from investor Elliott, Phillips 66 sells a majority stake in its European fuel station subsidiary for $2.8bn in a move to streamline its portfolio.
The International Energy Agency forecasts a significant rise in global oil stocks due to slowing demand in developed economies and OPEC+'s gradual production increases starting in 2025.
The International Energy Agency forecasts a significant rise in global oil stocks due to slowing demand in developed economies and OPEC+'s gradual production increases starting in 2025.
Africa Oil completed the integration of Prime, doubling its production and reserves, while declaring a second quarterly dividend of $25mn supported by strong cash generation.
Africa Oil completed the integration of Prime, doubling its production and reserves, while declaring a second quarterly dividend of $25mn supported by strong cash generation.
Brazilian oil major Petrobras reported a $6bn net profit in Q1 2025, driven by higher production volumes and a stronger real against the US dollar.
Brazilian oil major Petrobras reported a $6bn net profit in Q1 2025, driven by higher production volumes and a stronger real against the US dollar.
Namibia plans to finalise agreements with TotalEnergies for the Venus oil field and with BWEnergy for the Kudu gas field by the end of 2026, according to the country’s petroleum commissioner.
The Trump administration has announced new sanctions targeting Iran's oil export network to China amid ongoing nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran.
The Trump administration has announced new sanctions targeting Iran's oil export network to China amid ongoing nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran.
Japanese refiners, dependent on Gulf crude for 96.6% of imports, are struggling to diversify supply sources as increased OPEC+ output makes Persian Gulf barrels more competitive compared to US crude.
Japanese refiners, dependent on Gulf crude for 96.6% of imports, are struggling to diversify supply sources as increased OPEC+ output makes Persian Gulf barrels more competitive compared to US crude.
Esso’s Gravenchon site restarts operations following a planned shutdown involving 1,000 workers and over 750,000 labour hours.
Esso’s Gravenchon site restarts operations following a planned shutdown involving 1,000 workers and over 750,000 labour hours.
Oil prices climbed following a joint decision by Washington and Beijing to temporarily suspend tariffs, easing pressure on global demand.
Shell announced a delay in bringing two new wells online at the Perdido offshore field, temporarily lowering production targets in the Gulf of Mexico.
Shell announced a delay in bringing two new wells online at the Perdido offshore field, temporarily lowering production targets in the Gulf of Mexico.
Lower sales revenues and rising operational costs impacted Aramco’s results, while the company remains central to Saudi Arabia’s economic strategy.
Lower sales revenues and rising operational costs impacted Aramco’s results, while the company remains central to Saudi Arabia’s economic strategy.
Oil prices climbed on Friday, supported by the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, reviving expectations of easing global tensions.
Oil prices climbed on Friday, supported by the signing of a trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, reviving expectations of easing global tensions.

Advertising