India’s imports of Russian oil are expected to reach their lowest level in three years starting in December, following a peak in November. The decline results from a strategic shift by Indian refiners amid intensifying Western sanctions on Moscow. Several Indian refining companies are redirecting their purchases to avoid violations of the newly enforced restrictions.
Recent sanctions imposed by the United States directly target major Russian producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil. Buyers had until November 21 to wind down dealings with these companies. Separately, the European Union set a January 21 deadline after which it will reject fuel from refineries that processed Russian crude within the 60 days prior to the bill of lading.
Indian refiners seek to secure alternative supply sources
Amid increased banking scrutiny and tighter financial controls, public Indian refiners are showing heightened caution. According to an industry official, India is likely to import between 600,000 and 650,000 barrels per day of Russian crude in December, compared with 1.87 million barrels per day in November. The estimate includes purchases by Indian Oil Corporation, Nayara Energy, and deliveries from pre-existing contracts to Reliance Industries.
In October, Russian oil imports stood at 1.65 million barrels per day, up 2% from September. Several refiners sought to maximise stock levels ahead of the US sanctions deadline, while others anticipated the EU rule requiring oil products for the European market to be produced from non-Russian crude starting in 2026.
Strategic adjustment among major Indian players
Several Indian refiners have already suspended Russian crude purchases, including Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd. State-run Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation continue to purchase only from non-sanctioned entities.
Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, continues to process Russian oil exclusively after other suppliers pulled back. Reliance Industries, which operates the world’s largest refining complex, confirmed receipt of cargoes committed before October 22. Any deliveries after November 20 will be processed at its refinery designated for the domestic market.
Impact on sourcing diversification
Imports of US crude surged in October, reaching the highest level since June 2024. Indian refiners took advantage of a temporary arbitrage opportunity to adjust their supply mix. Meanwhile, Washington is increasing pressure on New Delhi to boost its purchases of American energy, after doubling tariffs on certain Indian goods to 50%.
This dynamic is forcing India’s energy sector to rapidly reorganise its supply chains and monitor geopolitical developments closely that could affect crude flows.
