Emissions expected to surge in Texas with 130 gas plant projects

A report identifies 130 gas power plant projects in Texas that could raise emissions to 115 million tonnes per year, despite analysts forecasting limited short-term realisation.

Share:

A report published on June 11 by the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP) states that proposed natural gas power plant projects in Texas could generate up to 115 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually, the same as the yearly emissions from 27 million vehicles. The study covers 130 projects, of which 108 would be entirely new, 17 would expand existing facilities, and five remain unspecified.

Projected capacity far exceeds forecast needs

According to data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Texas had 68.8 GW of gas-fired power capacity as of May 31. If all projects identified by EIP were realised, it would add another 58 GW. However, only 1.8 GW currently have signed interconnection agreements and posted financial guarantees for commissioning by the end of 2030.

S&P Global Commodity Insights projects a far more limited expansion, estimating that 10 GW of additional capacity could be added by the end of the decade, with a further 5 GW by 2035. Analysts cite overly optimistic demand forecasts, supply chain constraints and price uncertainty as major hurdles to project completion.

Impact on prices and infrastructure

Tanya Peevey, senior principal research analyst at Commodity Insights, noted that the impact on wholesale electricity prices will depend on the technology chosen. If new units rely on combined-cycle systems to meet base-load demand—such as from data centres—wholesale prices could decline. In contrast, an increase in combustion turbines would likely push prices higher, especially during peak hours.

The Platts M2MS Power Forward curves published on June 10 show ERCOT North Hub forward prices for 2030 averaging $56.27/MWh, compared to $72.38/MWh for average day-ahead locational marginal prices between 2020 and 2024.

A political response to the 2021 shock

Following the February 2021 winter storm that left nearly 4 million Texas households without power, the state introduced a public fund to support up to 10 GW of “dispatchable” generation, excluding battery storage. Initially capitalised with $5bn, the Texas Energy Fund recently received legislative approval for an additional $5bn, bringing the total to $10bn.

Despite this, EIP asserts the programme is facing difficulties. “They are struggling to keep projects from withdrawing and developers from leaving the programme,” said Griffin Bird, an analyst at EIP and lead author of the report.

Uncertain outlook despite numerous announcements

Of the 130 identified projects, 63 aim for commissioning before 2029, totalling 36.4 GW. The remaining 77 account for 28.3 GW, with no clear timeline. Bird said it is difficult to determine which projects will be built but noted that some can remain dormant for years before progressing rapidly once funding becomes available.

Tanya Peevey also pointed out that while ERCOT processes interconnection queues more efficiently than other operators, environmental restrictions and local opposition limit available sites, while supply chain issues slow the availability of gas turbines.

Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Peter Szijjarto states Budapest will block any European ban on Russian hydrocarbon imports, stressing the impact on household energy costs.
The International Energy Agency anticipates an acceleration in global liquefied natural gas trade, driven by major new projects in North America, while demand in Asia remains weak.
Spanish group Naturgy reports an unprecedented net profit, driven by rising electricity prices and increased use of its gas-fired power plants since the major Iberian grid outage.
The Hague court has authorised the release of Gazprom’s shares in Wintershall Noordzee, following a judicial decision after several months of legal proceedings involving Ukrainian companies.
SSE plc invests up to €300mn ($326mn) in a new 170MW power plant in County Meath, aiming to ensure energy security and support the growing demand on Ireland's power grid.
The Egyptian government has paid over $1 billion to oil majors to secure natural gas production and restore international investor confidence.
CMA CGM and TotalEnergies announce a strategic partnership with the creation of a joint venture to operate a liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering vessel with a capacity of 20,000 m³, based in Rotterdam.
The amount of gas flared globally surged to 151 billion cubic meters, the highest level in nearly twenty years, resulting in losses estimated at 63 billion USD and raising concerns for energy security.
Since early April, Europe has imported nearly 45 billion cubic meters (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG), with storage prospects for winter putting pressure on gas prices.
The Sharjah Electricity, Water and Gas Authority has completed a natural gas network in Al Hamriyah, spanning over 89 kilometres at a total cost of $3.81mn.
LNG trading volumes in the Asia-Pacific region reached 1.24 million tonnes, driven by summer demand and rising participation, despite a 21% monthly decline linked to geopolitical uncertainty.
Subsea 7 S.A. has announced a major contract signed with Equinor for the engineering and installation of subsea infrastructure at the Fram Sør gas field, located in the North Sea off the coast of Norway.
The Republic of Congo and Eni confirm the expansion of the Congo LNG project and multiply industrial initiatives to strengthen energy supply and strategic sectors.
Italian group Eni signs a twenty-year liquefied natural gas supply contract with US-based Venture Global, covering two mn tonnes per year and marking a first for the company from the United States.
The discovery of the Gajajeira field marks a major step for Angola, strengthening its natural gas development strategy and diversifying national energy resources in a context of sector transition.
The Voskhod vessel, under US sanctions, docked at the Arctic LNG 2 plant in Russia, marking the second visit by a sanctioned ship to the site this year, according to maritime tracking data.
Japan has urgently secured several additional cargoes of liquefied natural gas from the United States to avert an imminent electricity supply shortage caused by rapidly declining national reserves expected at the end of July.
The European Commission has unveiled a proposal to prohibit the import of Russian gas into the Union, sparking intense debate on its feasibility, contractual impact and consequences for supply security among several Member States.
CNOOC Limited announces the discovery of a significant oil and gas reservoir in the buried hills of the Beibu Gulf, opening new opportunities for shallow water exploration off the coast of China.
TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG gas project is at the centre of a legal challenge in Washington, following the approval of a $4.7 bn loan by the US Exim Bank, amid security concerns and opposition from civil society groups.