Towards a “Winter of Grumbling”?

At the opening of the UN General Assembly, the UN Secretary General warns against a "winter of discontent".

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The U.N. secretary-general warned Tuesday at the opening of the annual General Assembly that a “winter of discontent is on the horizon” in a world “paralyzed” by divisions despite mounting crises, from the war in Ukraine to global warming.

“The crisis of purchasing power is raging, confidence is crumbling, inequality is exploding, our planet is burning,” and yet, “we are stuck with a colossal global dysfunction,” said Antonio Guterres as he opened this week’s high-level United Nations General Assembly.

“These crises threaten the very future of humanity and the fate of the planet,” he said. “Let us not delude ourselves. We are in rough seas. A winter of global discontent is on the horizon.

After the Secretary General, for several days, dozens of heads of state and government from all over the world will speak at this annual diplomatic grand mass which resumes in person after two years disrupted by Covid-19.

Traditionally, this first day is dominated by the speech of the American president who, as the leader of the host country of the UN headquarters, speaks first. But exceptionally — as on very rare occasions in the past — this will not be the case: Joe Biden, who was on Monday at the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, has postponed his speech to Wednesday.

“North-South “fracking

Among the dangers that threaten the world mentioned by the Secretary General, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

While Moscow announced on Tuesday a referendum to annex the Kherson region under the control of its troops, this war will be at the heart of this high-level diplomatic week.

This includes an intervention on Wednesday by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — by video thanks to a special authorization voted last week by the member states — and a Security Council meeting on Thursday at the level of foreign ministers.

But the countries of the South are becoming increasingly annoyed that the West is focusing its attention on Ukraine.

In an attempt to respond to the concerns of some countries, the Americans and Europeans are holding a ministerial meeting on Tuesday on food security, a consequence of this war from which the whole planet is suffering.

And French President Emmanuel Macron, who is due to be at the podium midday Tuesday, will insist on the need to prevent “fracturing” between countries of the North and the South, the Elysée Palace said, adding that the head of state will hold a dinner on this theme with several other leaders.

These tensions caused by the war in Ukraine echo the North-South resentment in the fight against climate change.

The poor countries, on the front line of the devastating impacts of a warming for which they are not responsible, are fighting in particular for the rich countries to finally keep their promises of financial aid.

A “suicidal war

“It is high time to move beyond these endless discussions,” said Antonio Guterres on Tuesday.

Attacking the big fossil fuel companies that “feast” on profits inflated by the war in Ukraine, he also called on rich countries to tax these profits to “redirect” them in part to countries suffering “loss and damage” due to the devastating impacts of climate change and to populations suffering from inflation.

With two months to go before the UN COP27 climate conference in Egypt, “climate action has taken a back seat” to other crises, he also denounced, calling for an end to “our suicidal war on nature”.

On Tuesday, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are also expected to take the podium.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raissi is also in New York this week for his first General Assembly and the nuclear issue could once again be at the center of discussions.

Mr. Raissi was expected to meet Tuesday with Emmanuel Macron, who has encouraged him in recent months during telephone conversations to accept the conditions proposed by the Europeans to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement that was supposed to prevent Tehran from acquiring the atomic bomb in exchange for the lifting of sanctions suffocating its economy.

This high-level week has, however, some notable absentees, in particular Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz places Gulf producers under intense pressure, highlighting their diplomatic and logistical limitations as a blockage threatens 20 million daily barrels of hydrocarbons destined for global markets.
Budapest and Bratislava jointly reject the European Commission's proposal to ban Russian energy supplies, highlighting significant economic risks and a direct threat to their energy security, days ahead of a key meeting.
Libya officially contests Greece's allocation of offshore oil permits, exacerbating regional tensions over disputed maritime areas south of Crete, rich in hydrocarbons and contested by several Mediterranean states.
Hungary, supported by Slovakia, strongly expresses opposition to the European Commission's plan to phase out imports of Russian energy resources, citing major economic and energy impacts for Central Europe.
Israeli military strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear site destroyed critical electrical infrastructure but did not reach strategic underground facilities, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The French president travels to Nuuk on 15 June to support Greenlandic sovereignty, review energy projects and respond to recent US pressure, according to the Élysée.
Kazakhstan has selected Rosatom and China National Nuclear Corporation to build two nuclear power plants totaling 2.4 GW, a decision following a favorable referendum and coinciding with Xi Jinping’s upcoming strategic visit.
Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear sites disrupt US-Iranian talks on the nuclear deal. Tehran now considers canceling the upcoming negotiation round in Oman, heightening regional economic concerns.
Facing alarming breaches of uranium enrichment thresholds by Iran and explicit existential threats, Israel launches targeted military strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, escalating regional tensions dramatically.
The Kremlin has confirmed that Vladimir Putin aims to help resolve the nuclear dispute between the United States and Iran, leveraging strengthened strategic ties with Tehran.
President Lee Jae-myung adopts an energy diplomacy rooted in national interest, amid a complex international landscape of rivalries that could create challenging situations for the country and its energy businesses.
Paris and Warsaw held a bilateral workshop in Warsaw to strengthen coordination on electricity infrastructure investments and supply security under the Nancy Treaty.
Donald Trump firmly rejects any uranium enrichment by Iran, while Russia affirms Tehran’s right to civil nuclear power, intensifying tensions in negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program.
Syria has signed a $7bn agreement with a consortium of companies from Qatar, Turkey and the United States to rebuild its national power sector.
Friedrich Merz confirmed that Germany would block any attempt to relaunch the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite internal calls suggesting a potential reopening of dialogue with Moscow.
A memorandum of understanding formalises energy cooperation between the European Union and the Latin American Energy Organization, including permanent EU participation in the organisation’s governance bodies.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban announced that Hungary would oppose the EU's plan to ban Russian energy deliveries by 2027, both legally and politically.
Michael Kretschmer, Minister-President of Saxony, proposed restarting dialogue with Russia on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite clear opposition from the German government to any reactivation of the project.
Donald Trump is calling on the United Kingdom to abandon wind energy in favor of revitalizing offshore oil extraction, sparking debate over the economic and political implications of such an energy strategy after their recent trade agreement.
China and Egypt concluded over 30 energy-focused agreements, including electric vehicles, smart grids and storage technologies.