China recorded its highest crude oil import level in two years in November, reaching a daily average of 12.38 million barrels. This volume marks a 4.88% increase compared to the same period in 2024 and a 5.24% rise from the previous month. Total imports between January and November reached 521.87 million tonnes, equivalent to a daily average of 11.45 million barrels.
Purchases driven by cheaper feedstock
This increase comes despite a seasonal decline in domestic demand. Sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude exports have put downward pressure on prices, improving refining margins and prompting refiners to increase purchases. Importers are anticipating the first round of 2026 import quotas, according to several analysts.
Imports from Saudi Arabia jumped by 345,000 barrels per day to 1.59 million daily, making the kingdom China’s top supplier for the month. In contrast, Russian volumes fell by 157,000 barrels per day to a monthly average of 1.19 million barrels per day. Shipments from Iran rose sharply, adding 233,000 barrels per day to reach 1.35 million.
Independent refiners draw down stockpiles
In Shandong province, private refiners are ramping up crude purchasing and processing activity following a new round of import quotas issued by Beijing. This trend has contributed to a drawdown in stored volumes, which could ease concerns over a domestic supply overhang before year-end.
At the same time, China’s short-term oil demand outlook remains subdued. The Economics and Technology Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) projects annual oil consumption growth of 1.1%, driven mainly by petrochemical demand, while consumption of transportation fuels has peaked.
Market still shaped by geopolitical arbitrage
Current market conditions show a rapid adjustment of trade flows in response to geopolitical constraints. Russia and Iran, both under international sanctions, continue to offer discounted volumes, attracting Chinese refiners despite price volatility risks.
Observers expect Chinese refiners to maintain opportunistic buying strategies in the first quarter of 2026, as they await possible quota increases and a rebalancing of global crude prices.
