Australia Projects 163 Million Tons of Metallurgical Coal Exports for 2024-25

Australia revises its metallurgical coal export forecast to reach 163 million tons for the 2024-25 fiscal year. However, revenues are expected to decline due to falling global market prices.

Share:

Subscribe for unlimited access to all energy sector news.

Over 150 multisector articles and analyses every week.

Your 1st year at 99 $*

then 199 $/year

*renews at 199$/year, cancel anytime before renewal.

Australia anticipates an increase in its metallurgical coal exports for the 2024-25 fiscal year, reaching 163 million tons, according to the latest projections from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources. This 1.2% revision from the previous estimate of 161 million tons reflects more favorable weather conditions, with reduced disruptions caused by the La Niña climate phenomenon.

Increase Supported by New Mining Projects

Exports of metallurgical coal are expected to continue rising to 174 million tons by 2025-26, driven by the development of new mining capacities. Domestic production is forecast to reach 178 million tons in the same period, compared to the 169 million tons projected for 2024-25. These increases are partly attributed to the launch of new mining operations.

Despite this growth in volume, declining prices on international markets are expected to reduce export revenues. Estimates for the 2024-25 fiscal year suggest a revenue drop to AUD 43 billion, compared to AUD 54 billion in 2023-24. By 2025-26, revenues could fall further to AUD 41 billion.

Impact of Prices and International Context

The department highlighted that the decrease in revenues is linked to falling average prices for metallurgical coal. Prices are projected to settle at USD 204 per ton in 2025, down from an average of USD 245 in 2024. Analysts believe that this decline will be mitigated by high production costs at some mines, which limit the risk of prices dropping below USD 200 per ton.

Additionally, premium metallurgical coal low volatility price indices averaged USD 207.6 per ton between July and December 2024, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Reduced Prospects for Iron Ore

At the same time, Australia’s iron ore export forecasts for 2024-25 were slightly revised down, from 915 million tons to 914 million. This adjustment reflects weak global steel demand, driven by a contraction in industrial production and unfavorable economic conditions in the construction sector.

Between January and September 2024, global steel production declined by 1.6%, representing a decrease of 23 million tons compared to the same period in 2023. This persistent weakness is putting pressure on global iron ore prices, which are expected to average USD 80 per ton in 2025 before dropping to USD 76 per ton in 2026.

India’s coking coal imports are rising and increasingly split between the United States and Russia, while Australian producers redirect volumes to China; 2025 results confirm a shift in trade flows.
China approved 25 GW in H1 2025 and commissioned 21 GW; the annual total could exceed 80 GW. Proposals reached 75 GW and coal’s share fell to 51% in June, amid declining imports.
Valor Mining Credit Partners completes its first major financing with a secured loan to strengthen the operational capacity of a U.S. mining site.
Amid tensions on the Midwest power grid, Washington orders the continued operation of the J.H. Campbell plant to secure electricity supply over the coming months.
Peabody Energy abandons the acquisition of Anglo American’s Australian coal assets, triggering an arbitration process following the failure of a post-incident agreement at the Moranbah North mine.
Core Natural Resources announces USD220.2mn in operating cash flow for the second quarter of 2025, while revising its capital return strategy and increasing post-merger synergies.
A report by Wood Mackenzie reveals that geopolitical pressures and rising global electricity demand could keep coal-fired generation elevated well beyond current forecasts.
Ramaco Resources officially opens in the United States the first mine dedicated to rare earths in seven decades, also inaugurating Wyoming's first new coal mining operation in over half a century during a ceremony attended by senior political officials.
Turkish power producer Eren Energi Elektrik Uretim has launched a tender to buy 375,000 tonnes of thermal coal to be delivered in five shipments starting from August 2025, according to a document seen by Platts on June 27.
Ireland ends four decades of coal-based electricity production by converting its Moneypoint power plant to heavy fuel oil, now exclusively reserved for the balancing market until 2029.
Duke Energy Indiana will launch a technical study to evaluate the potential sale of its coal units at the Cayuga site following the planned commissioning of new natural gas plants in 2029 and 2030.
China's coal imports dropped 18% in May, driven by historically low domestic prices and significant growth in national production, shifting the country's energy market dynamics.
India’s unprecedented drop in power demand led to a sharp decline in coal-based generation in May, while renewable energy output reached a record high.
Greenpeace data shows a renewed wave of coal projects in early 2025, as renewable capacity surpasses thermal energy for the first time.
Financial giant BlackRock highlights economic and strategic risks linked to an antitrust procedure backed by Washington, targeting major asset managers accused of conspiring to reduce coal production in the United States.
Adani Power will supply 1,500 MW to Uttar Pradesh through an ultra-supercritical coal power plant built under the DBFOO model, at a tariff of Rs 5.383 per unit.
A satellite analysis led by Ember and Kayrros shows that methane emissions from Australian mines are 40% higher than official reports, revealing significant gaps in the current coal sector monitoring.
Donald Trump issues several executive orders aimed at reducing regulations on the U.S. coal industry, addressing economic expectations from coal-producing states while securing national energy supply.
Backed by Chinese funding, Zambia and Zimbabwe are reviving coal projects in contrast to international energy sector trends.
New coal-fired electricity capacity added in 2024 dropped to 44 GW, driven mainly by China and India, according to a report released on Thursday.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.

or

Go unlimited with our annual offer: $99 for the 1styear year, then $ 199/year.