Venezuela’s crude oil exports to the European Union will record their sharpest decline in two years in 2025, falling 75% in value, according to the European Union’s trade representative in Venezuela. The drop follows the United States’ decision to revoke special licences granted to European companies operating in the country, despite the embargo in place since 2019.
European crude oil purchases from Venezuela will fall from €1.535bn ($1.65bn) in 2024 to just €383mn ($412mn) in 2025. This development marks a turning point in the energy trade relationship between Europe and Caracas, which had slightly recovered after sanctions were eased in 2023. The suspension of these derogations has brought operations by several companies to a halt, with none confirming the acquisition of new authorisations.
Reduction in derivative imports and impact on European exports
Venezuela, facing limited refining capacity, also imports naphtha from Europe to produce fuel. These imports amounted to €72mn ($77mn) in 2025, a decrease of €76mn ($81mn) compared to the previous year. The European representative nevertheless expects a 35% rebound in naphtha sales in 2026, while crude oil imports are forecast to fall a further 78.8%.
The possibility of one-off shipments to the European market remains dependent on fresh authorisations from US authorities. “There could be sporadic cargoes to Europe, but this will depend on the authorisation scenarios (from the United States),” said Jaime Luis Socas during a forum in Caracas.
Economic consequences and trade uncertainty
This reshaping of oil flows also affects other trade sectors. Venezuela’s declining purchasing power, a direct result of falling foreign currency revenues, is leading to a contraction in European exports to the country, particularly in pharmaceuticals, machinery and agri-food products. Imports of machinery, electrical equipment and vegetable preparations are in decline, according to the European Union’s trade representative.
US company Chevron, the only entity allowed to maintain certain operations in the country since July, remains subject to specific restrictions, while European actors have yet to obtain similar status. The geopolitical context, marked by increased US pressure on the Venezuelan government, continues to directly influence access conditions to the national energy sector.
