The International Court of Justice opinion increases legal risks for fossil fuel projects

The advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice increases legal exposure for states and companies involved in the licensing or expansion of oil and gas projects, according to several international law experts.

Share:

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

The opinion delivered by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on state obligations regarding climate change could reshape the legal environment of the oil and gas sector. While non-binding, the opinion introduces an interpretation of international law that potentially exposes stakeholders to new litigation and re-evaluation of already granted exploration or exploitation permits.

According to the Court, a state’s failure to take sufficient measures to limit the use or production of fossil fuels may constitute a breach of international law. The opinion specifically mentions the granting of exploration permits or subsidies for fossil fuels as potentially unlawful under climate commitments.

A more uncertain legal framework for industry players

For companies operating in hydrocarbons, this development adds regulatory uncertainty and could influence investment decisions. National courts may now invoke the ICJ’s opinion to challenge permits or ongoing projects, particularly in countries where international law is directly applicable, such as the Netherlands or France.

Several legal experts believe the opinion will also affect commercial disputes, especially in cases where investors challenge states over the withdrawal or suspension of exploitation licences. This risk is heightened when new climate pledges contradict existing regulatory frameworks.

Potential international-level litigation

In dualist legal systems, where international law requires transposition, the influence remains indirect but tangible. Constitutional courts may rely on the ICJ’s interpretive authority to justify rulings unfavourable to oil companies. The Court’s recognition of an “existential threat” reinforces the ability of vulnerable states to seek redress from polluting nations before international tribunals.

The opinion could also serve as a defence for countries facing claims from corporations after altering their climate policies. Italy’s condemnation to compensate an oil operator for revoking a drilling permit illustrates the growing complexity of balancing energy sovereignty and climate obligations.

Expected impact on contracts and arbitration

The opinion’s reach is likely to affect stability clauses and legal guarantees traditionally embedded in agreements between governments and energy operators. Financial institutions may also reconsider their risk assessment models for fossil fuel projects, anticipating challenges to the legality of funded developments.

“It will be more difficult to claim a legitimate expectation to operate a fossil fuel project without obstruction,” said Lorenzo Cotula, an expert in international law. Legal risk assessment now explicitly integrates climate considerations, with potentially lasting effects on the structure of the global oil and gas market.

Lukoil has started divesting its foreign assets following new US oil sanctions, a move that could reshape its overseas presence and impact supply in key European markets.
Kazakhstan is reviewing Lukoil's stakes in major oil projects after the Russian group announced plans to divest its international assets following new US sanctions.
The Mexican state-owned company reduced its crude extraction by 6.7% while boosting its refining activity by 4.8%, and narrowed its financial losses compared to the previous year.
The new US licence granted to Chevron significantly alters financial flows between Venezuela and the United States, affecting the local currency, oil revenues and the country's economic balance.
Three Crown Petroleum reports a steady initial flow rate of 752 barrels of oil equivalent per day from its Irvine 1NH well in the Powder River Basin, marking a key step in its horizontal drilling programme in the Niobrara.
Cenovus Energy adjusts its MEG Energy acquisition offer to $30 per share and signs a voting support agreement with Strathcona Resources, while selling assets worth up to CAD150mn.
Iraq is negotiating a potential revision of its OPEC production limit while maintaining exports at around 3.6 million barrels per day despite significantly higher capacity.
Le Premier ministre hongrois se rendra à Washington pour discuter avec Donald Trump des sanctions américaines contre le pétrole russe, dans un contexte de guerre en Ukraine et de dépendance persistante de la Hongrie aux hydrocarbures russes.
Nigerian tycoon Aliko Dangote plans to expand his refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, reshaping regional energy dynamics through an unmatched private-sector project in Africa.
COOEC has signed a $4bn EPC contract with QatarEnergy to develop the offshore Bul Hanine oil field, marking the largest order ever secured by a Chinese company in the Gulf.
The group terminates commitments for the Odin and Hild rigs in Mexico, initially scheduled through November 2025 and March 2026, due to sanctions affecting an involved counterparty, while reaffirming compliance with applicable international frameworks.
Shell has filed an appeal against the cancellation of its environmental authorisation for Block 5/6/7 off the South African coast, aiming to continue exploration in a geologically strategic offshore zone.
The Greek government has selected a consortium led by Chevron to explore hydrocarbons in four maritime zones in the Ionian Sea and south of Crete, with geophysical surveys scheduled to begin in 2026.
Algerian company Sonatrach has resumed exploration activities in Libya's Ghadames Basin, halted since 2014, as part of a strategic revival of the country's oil sector.
The Indian refiner segments campaigns, strengthens documentary traceability and adjusts contracts to secure certified shipments to the European Union, while redirecting ineligible volumes to Africa and the Americas based on market conditions.
US authorities have authorised a unit at Talen Energy’s Wagner plant in Maryland to operate beyond regulatory limits until the end of 2025 to strengthen grid reliability.
Gran Tierra Energy has signed a crude oil sale agreement with a $200mn prepayment and amended its Colombian credit facility to improve financial flexibility.
Operations at BP’s 440,000 barrel-per-day Whiting refinery have resumed following a temporary shutdown caused by a power outage and a minor fire incident.
The European Union targets a trading subsidiary and a refinery linked to China National Petroleum Corporation, tightening access to financial and insurance services without disrupting pipeline deliveries, with reallocations expected in settlements, insurance, and logistics. —
Viktor Orban says he is working to bypass recent US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, underscoring Hungary’s continued reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.