popular articles

Libya: Economic recovery dependent on oil, but weakened by lack of reforms

The IMF forecasts robust economic growth for Libya in 2025 driven by oil, but warns that structural reforms are essential to avoid renewed vulnerability to global market shocks.

Please share:

Libya, with its oil resources accounting for around 3% of the world’s proven reserves, could experience an economic recovery in 2025, supported by increased oil production. According to a statement released on April 16 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) following a mission in the country, this recovery could translate into significant growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 2024, oil and gas continued to dominate the Libyan economy, accounting for nearly 68% of GDP, 97% of exports, and more than 90% of fiscal revenues, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).

However, this outlook remains uncertain without a deep revision of economic policies and diversification of economic sectors. The IMF stressed that the country’s heavy reliance on hydrocarbons exposes Libya to risks associated with fluctuations in global oil prices and internal tensions, as demonstrated by recent violence at the Zawiya refinery. Political stability, still fragile, remains a crucial factor for sustained growth. Thus, while the AfDB projects a growth rate of 6.2% for 2025, this will largely depend on the stability of oil and gas prices and production.

The structural challenges of the Libyan economy

Despite the growth outlook, the IMF warns that Libya’s current economic situation remains too vulnerable to allow for effective diversification. The country suffers from weaknesses in non-hydrocarbon activities, a lack of financing, and ineffective regulation. This climate of uncertainty, coupled with sustained public spending, hinders the development of the private sector. Furthermore, the absence of reforms in key areas such as subsidies, governance, and support for the private sector undermines the economy’s effectiveness.

A call for fiscal and budgetary reforms

Long-term growth prospects for Libya remain closely tied to political and economic reforms. The IMF has stressed the need for significant budgetary reforms to stabilize public finances and ensure long-term economic viability. The international institution emphasized that it is crucial to reform the wage and subsidy system, as well as promote revenues outside the oil sector. These efforts would be essential for attracting foreign investments and increasing crude oil production, thereby strengthening the Libyan economy in the face of global challenges.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

Brazilian group Petrobras formalises its return to Angola with two memorandums of understanding signed with Sonangol and the national oil regulator, targeting offshore exploration without immediate financial commitment.
The Abuja Court of Appeal rejected Malabu Oil & Gas’s lawsuit against Agip, Eni’s subsidiary, by upholding the statute of limitations on the OPL 245 oil block case.
The Abuja Court of Appeal rejected Malabu Oil & Gas’s lawsuit against Agip, Eni’s subsidiary, by upholding the statute of limitations on the OPL 245 oil block case.
Portugal’s Galp expects a production surge in Brazil driven by the offshore Bacalhau field, in partnership with Sinopec, Equinor and ExxonMobil.
Portugal’s Galp expects a production surge in Brazil driven by the offshore Bacalhau field, in partnership with Sinopec, Equinor and ExxonMobil.
North Atlantic has entered exclusive negotiations to acquire the Gravenchon refinery, France’s second-largest, from ExxonMobil in a deal reshaping the industrial landscape of the Seine Valley.
North Atlantic has entered exclusive negotiations to acquire the Gravenchon refinery, France’s second-largest, from ExxonMobil in a deal reshaping the industrial landscape of the Seine Valley.
TotalEnergies sells its 12.5% stake in the offshore Bonga oil field to Shell for $510mn, raising the British group's share to 67.5% in the OML 118 block off the Nigerian coast.
The Trump administration authorizes Chevron to maintain limited stakes in Venezuela while prohibiting oil production and export, marking a decisive shift for the oil sector amid geopolitical tensions with Maduro’s government.
The Trump administration authorizes Chevron to maintain limited stakes in Venezuela while prohibiting oil production and export, marking a decisive shift for the oil sector amid geopolitical tensions with Maduro’s government.
Indonesia Energy announces a ramp-up in its oil assets with a 60% increase in proven reserves and confirms a strategic shift toward gradual energy diversification.
Indonesia Energy announces a ramp-up in its oil assets with a 60% increase in proven reserves and confirms a strategic shift toward gradual energy diversification.
SK Innovation, through its subsidiary SK Earthon, is accelerating investments in offshore oil exploration projects in Southeast Asia, enhancing South Korea's energy security through a regional strategy focused on operational efficiency.
SK Innovation, through its subsidiary SK Earthon, is accelerating investments in offshore oil exploration projects in Southeast Asia, enhancing South Korea's energy security through a regional strategy focused on operational efficiency.
Production at the Mero-4 field began on May 24 using a 180,000 barrels/day FPSO, the result of international cooperation among six partners operating offshore Brazil.
As Western nations debate an adjustment to the price ceiling on Russian oil, Moscow firmly rejects these measures as market-distorting, citing a lack of significant impact on its current exports.
As Western nations debate an adjustment to the price ceiling on Russian oil, Moscow firmly rejects these measures as market-distorting, citing a lack of significant impact on its current exports.
Carlo McLeod joins the new presidential unit dedicated to hydrocarbons as Namibia centralises oil sector governance under the head of state.
Carlo McLeod joins the new presidential unit dedicated to hydrocarbons as Namibia centralises oil sector governance under the head of state.
Valeura Energy has completed eight wells on Block B5/27 in the Gulf of Thailand, securing stable output and preparing a new investment phase at the Nong Yao field.
Valeura Energy has completed eight wells on Block B5/27 in the Gulf of Thailand, securing stable output and preparing a new investment phase at the Nong Yao field.
Shell recognised Mecpec Trading for its 2023 fuel sales growth and contribution to Singapore's distribution network, with a 23% increase in total volume delivered.
Petroecuador suspended activities at its Esmeraldas refinery following a fire, with no injuries reported, while an investigation is under way to assess the damage.
Petroecuador suspended activities at its Esmeraldas refinery following a fire, with no injuries reported, while an investigation is under way to assess the damage.
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) plans to eliminate over 3,000 non-union positions as part of a comprehensive restructuring initiative aimed at significantly reducing operational costs.
Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) plans to eliminate over 3,000 non-union positions as part of a comprehensive restructuring initiative aimed at significantly reducing operational costs.
TotalEnergies has started production at Mero-4, raising the total capacity of the Mero field to 770,000 barrels per day via five offshore units off the coast of Brazil.
TotalEnergies has started production at Mero-4, raising the total capacity of the Mero field to 770,000 barrels per day via five offshore units off the coast of Brazil.
Falling oil prices strain shareholder returns as supermajors weigh high dividends against cash flow stability.
Economically fragile Venezuela awaits a critical U.S. decision on renewing oil licenses granted to multinationals, a crucial issue that could significantly affect its recent economic recovery and financial stability.
Economically fragile Venezuela awaits a critical U.S. decision on renewing oil licenses granted to multinationals, a crucial issue that could significantly affect its recent economic recovery and financial stability.
Nigerien authorities instruct the local arm of China National Petroleum Corporation to repatriate expatriates who have held positions for over four years, citing violations of local content requirements and economic sovereignty.
Nigerien authorities instruct the local arm of China National Petroleum Corporation to repatriate expatriates who have held positions for over four years, citing violations of local content requirements and economic sovereignty.
German asset manager Union Investment has excluded TotalEnergies from its sustainable funds over allegations of human rights violations linked to the EACOP oil project in Uganda, further complicating its international financing.
German asset manager Union Investment has excluded TotalEnergies from its sustainable funds over allegations of human rights violations linked to the EACOP oil project in Uganda, further complicating its international financing.
Iraq has signed a deal with China’s Geo-Jade and Hilal al-Basra to develop an integrated project combining oil, refining and electricity in the country’s south.
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels last week, defying market expectations, according to data published by the US Energy Information Administration.
US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels last week, defying market expectations, according to data published by the US Energy Information Administration.
As Venezuelan elections approach concerning the oil-rich disputed Essequibo territory, Guyana emphasizes increased vigilance, citing risks to its energy and territorial sovereignty amid Caracas' claims. ##
As Venezuelan elections approach concerning the oil-rich disputed Essequibo territory, Guyana emphasizes increased vigilance, citing risks to its energy and territorial sovereignty amid Caracas' claims. ##
GATE Energy and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly pursue international offshore contracts, combining engineering, construction and commissioning capabilities.
GATE Energy and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly pursue international offshore contracts, combining engineering, construction and commissioning capabilities.

Advertising