France’s forests, once robust carbon sinks, are showing signs of running out of steam in their ability to sequester CO2, a crucial ecological function in limiting global warming. A study by the French National Institute for Geographic and Forestry Information (IGN) and the FCBA technology institute shows that, despite a variety of scenarios, the general trend is for this storage capacity to decline over the period 2020-2050.
Study details and scenarios
The study examines different scenarios that take into account the level of timber harvesting, massive reforestation initiatives, and the impact of climate change. It shows considerable variation in carbon sequestration, ranging from 40 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year in an optimistic scenario to just 3 MtCO2e/year in the most pessimistic. These results underline the vulnerability of forests to overexploitation and increasing climatic threats, such as fire, infestation and drought.
Implications and government action
Fluctuations in the carbon storage capacity of French forests pose a major challenge for public forest management policies. The study points to a more cautious and adaptive management of forests, while noting that in some years, forests could become net sources of carbon, reversing their current role as carbon sinks. The government has put in place an ambitious plan to plant a billion trees by 2032, but the substantial effects of this project will not be seen until after 2050, and will depend on the effectiveness of the selection of planting sites and the success of these plantations.
Economic consequences and impact on forest production
The study also predicts an impact on forest production, with a potential drop of 25% by 2050, while tree mortality could increase by 77% compared to today. These forecasts are alarming for the wood industry. The sector could face increased tensions, with demand rising by around 16% excluding wood energy and 14% including wood energy between 2019 and 2050. In particular for softwood lumber, due to the projected increase in demand.
French forests are at a crossroads, facing unprecedented challenges exacerbated by climate change. While the study provides clear directions for the future, it also highlights the need for coordinated government action and forest management initiatives adapted to the realities of the 21st century.
