Ukraine has decided not to renew the agreement signed in 2019 with Gazprom, which allowed the transit of Russian gas through its territory.
This contract, essential for gas supplies to several European countries, expires on December 31, 2024.
The quantity of gas transported by Ukraine, already in decline with only 14 billion cubic meters delivered in 2023, is likely to cease altogether, forcing the countries concerned to seek immediate alternatives.
This decision comes at a time when the European Union, although aiming for energy independence from Russia by 2027, is still dependent on these deliveries to meet the energy needs of certain member states.
For Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, this change represents a considerable challenge, both in terms of security of supply and costs.
Economic consequences and logistical challenges
Ukraine’s decision could further disrupt a market already under stress.
European consumers could face higher prices, increasing costs for local industries.
Anticipating this scenario, Russia is turning to China and considering expanding its gas infrastructure in Turkey to compensate for the loss of the European market.
Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, says his country is exploring alternative solutions, including agreements with Azerbaijan.
However, transporting Azerbaijani gas poses major logistical challenges, given the absence of a common border between the two countries.
Transit via Russia would still be necessary, further complicating the situation.
Geopolitical and strategic implications
This decision is part of a wider Ukrainian strategy to reduce its energy dependence on Russia.
The recent capture by Ukrainian forces of the town of Soudja, a strategic point for the transit of gas to Europe, testifies to the intensity of the current confrontations.
This situation could not only interrupt gas deliveries, but also complicate the European Union’s efforts to maintain a diversity of energy supply sources.
Discussions with Azerbaijan demonstrate the efforts being made by European and Ukrainian players to find alternative solutions.
However, the complexity of the geopolitical situation makes these discussions difficult, and uncertainty about the future of gas supplies remains.
