Solar industry forecasts 592 GW of new capacity by 2024

BloombergNEF forecasts 592 GW of solar installations by 2024, marking 33% growth. However, overcapacity and low prices are creating pressure on the supply chain.

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The global solar industry is on course to install 592 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity in 2024, a 33% increase on 2023, according to the latest forecasts from BloombergNEF.
This growth is largely fuelled by falling prices for photovoltaic modules, boosting demand in emerging markets such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and India.
However, this situation is also putting intense pressure on solar panel manufacturers, faced with increased competition and reduced margins.
The continuing fall in module prices, currently at $0.096/W (€0.087), is forcing manufacturers to reassess their market strategies.
Cost reductions are becoming a priority in the face of oversupply outstripping demand in several regions.
Japan and South Africa, for example, are seeing a decline in new installations, reflecting tougher market conditions despite global expansion.

Reducing Polysilicon Production and Impact on Profitability

Against this backdrop of overproduction, BloombergNEF adjusts its forecast for polysilicon production in 2024 to 1.96 million metric tons, down from the 2.2 million tons initially forecast.
This decision is the result of manufacturers adjusting their production capacity in response to low polysilicon prices, currently at $4.9/kg (€4.4).
At this price level, the majority of producers are operating below their production costs, jeopardizing the economic viability of some of them.
Players in the sector are adapting their operations, with some cutting back on labor, deferring payments to suppliers or reducing salaries to manage these new financial constraints.
This situation stems from systemic overcapacity throughout the supply chain, from polysilicon production to finished modules.
The BloombergNEF report anticipates that this period of tension could lead to market consolidation, with weaker companies likely to disappear or consolidate.

Manufacturers’ adjustment strategies and the future of the market

In this competitive climate, solar module manufacturers are implementing diversified strategies to maintain their operations.
Improved production processes, the adoption of new technologies such as TOPCon (tunnel oxide passivated contact), and rigorous inventory management are common measures adopted.
BloombergNEF forecasts that module prices based on this technology could fall below $0.10/W (€0.09) by the end of the year, making it more attractive for large-scale projects.
The report also points out that future growth depends on improving efficiency and reducing costs throughout the supply chain.
With a forecast of 996 GW of new installations by 2035, the solar market continues to present significant opportunities.
However, only those players capable of adapting quickly to price fluctuations and demand dynamics will be able to capitalize on these opportunities.

Supply Chain Impacts and Regional Perspectives

Pressure on the solar supply chain is also manifesting itself in capacity reductions and production adjustments.
Manufacturers must navigate between the need to maintain profitable operations and competitiveness in the face of falling module prices.
Tensions in the polysilicon market add another layer of complexity, with manufacturers forced to manage costs while avoiding significant losses.
Regional dynamics vary considerably.
While markets such as Pakistan and India are experiencing notable growth due to lower installation costs and supportive policies, others, such as Japan and South Africa, face structural and economic obstacles limiting new installations.
These regional disparities illustrate the need for companies to develop specific market strategies to maximize opportunities and minimize risks.

T1 Energy commits $850 million to build a five-gigawatt photovoltaic facility in Texas, selecting Yates Construction and benefiting from local tax incentives, with 1,800 jobs anticipated by the end of 2026.
The German solar developer has completed the 90-megawatt-peak Postomino photovoltaic park in north-western Poland, integrating it with an existing wind farm’s high-voltage line in a cable-pooling arrangement set to supply electricity to about 32,000 homes.
EDF Renouvelables plans a floating solar plant in Isère by 2027, featuring 70,000 panels integrated with an existing hydroelectric dam, targeting an annual production of 60 GWh.
Scatec ASA finalises financing for its hybrid solar-battery Obelisk project in Egypt, securing $479.1 million from international financial institutions for a planned capacity of 1.1 GW solar and 100 MW storage.
The 800 MW Horizeo photovoltaic project spanning 680 hectares in Gironde awaits governmental authorization linked to France’s Zero Net Artificialization (ZAN) objective to advance permits submitted in early 2024.
Global photovoltaic tracker shipments rose 20% in 2024, driven by India and Saudi Arabia, pushing the United States to a less dominant market position.
Chinese manufacturer Astronergy will supply its ASTRO N8 photovoltaic modules for a solar project developed in Spain by engineering firm GES Siemsa, marking a strategic advance in the European market.
SMEG and the City of Mâcon have started construction of a 6 MWc solar power plant on a former landfill site, with commissioning scheduled for early 2026.
Producer Corsica Sole is inaugurating a 5.4 MWc photovoltaic plant in Cirey-sur-Vezouze on a former industrial site, with 8,700 panels and an estimated annual output of 6.1 GWh.
The Kashgar region has connected over 10 GW of solar projects to the grid, representing more than three-quarters of its total power capacity, initiating the development of a new power system in southern Xinjiang.
U.S.-based Soltage raises $260mn to support the construction of 250 MW in solar and storage projects within a development pipeline exceeding 2 GW.
Origis Energy has closed financing for the Wheatland project in Indiana as part of a $530mn portfolio, in partnership with MUFG and several financial institutions.
Germany’s solar capture price fell to a five-year low in May, driven by rising negative price hours and excess photovoltaic capacity.
Albioma Solaire Guyane has commissioned five photovoltaic plants totalling 1.4 MWc, spread across Mana and Macouria, to strengthen local electricity supply in a region isolated from the national grid.
South African group NOA and Standard Bank have finalised the financing of the 349 MW Khauta South solar site, now the largest developed on a single site in South Africa.
Enfinity Global signed new power purchase agreements for a 420 MW solar portfolio with a US technology company operating in Italy, reinforcing its position in the Italian energy market.
The American solar sector saw strong industrial growth in Q1, but tax and trade uncertainties could hinder its momentum and affect local investments.
Global solar leaders doubled shipments in one year, but combined losses of $4 billion highlight intense margin pressure in the sector.
Growth in the U.S. solar sector is expected to slow by 2030 due to political shifts in Washington directly impacting tax incentives and imposing tariffs on essential materials, creating sectoral uncertainty.
The $176 million agreement between Pine Gate Renewables and Waaree Solar Americas strengthens the US solar supply chain with locally manufactured modules.