S'abonner

Japan: The share of renewable energy could double by 2040-2041

Japan plans to reduce its reliance on thermal energy to 30%-40% by fiscal year 2040-2041 while significantly increasing renewable energy, according to a draft Strategic Energy Plan.

Share:

Japan, the world’s fifth-largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter, has unveiled a draft revision of its Strategic Energy Plan. This update forecasts a significant drop in thermal energy’s share of the national energy mix, set between 30% and 40% by fiscal year (FY) 2040-2041.

Energy demand growth

This transformation is accompanied by an expected increase in electricity consumption. According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), energy demand could reach 1.1 to 1.2 trillion kWh by FY 2040-2041, compared to approximately 985.4 billion kWh for FY 2023-2024. The increase would primarily be driven by digital transformation (DX) and industrial transition (GX), which require growing amounts of energy.

GHG emissions reduction targets

As part of its climate commitment, Japan aims to reduce GHG emissions by 73% by FY 2040-2041 compared to FY 2013-2014 levels. This new target aligns with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), which the country must submit to the United Nations by early 2024.

Projected energy mix

The energy mix forecast for FY 2040-2041 is structured as follows:
– Renewable energy: 40%-50%
– Thermal energy: 30%-40%
– Nuclear energy: around 20%

This distribution marks a significant shift compared to FY 2023-2024, where thermal energy still dominates at 68.6%, compared to 22.9% for renewables and 8.5% for nuclear energy.

Lack of details on thermal energy sources

The report does not specify the breakdown of thermal energy sources, such as coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), or oil. Additionally, the share of alternative fuels, such as hydrogen or ammonia, remains undefined for FY 2040-2041.

Current energy policy

By FY 2030-2031, under the 6th Strategic Energy Plan, Japan aims for the following targets:
– Renewables to reach 36%-38%
– Nuclear energy contributing 20%-22%
– Hydrogen and ammonia representing 1%

Fossil fuels, such as LNG, coal, and oil, would retain a reduced share, with 20% for LNG, 19% for coal, and 2% for oil.

Economic and political context

Japan’s strategic repositioning comes as balancing energy security, economic competitiveness, and climate goals remains a major challenge. Reducing thermal energy’s share could have economic implications, particularly for industries dependent on imported natural gas and coal.

  • Populaires ​
MN8 Energy raises $575mn with Natixis CIB to strengthen its US solar debt
Saudi Aramco Sharply Raises Crude Prices for Asia in August
Germany extends electricity price aid to 2,200 companies
Geothermal Radar launches global platform to accelerate industrial geothermal projects
Global PV inverter shipments reach 589 GWac as Asia-Pacific dominates in 2024
Asia accounts for 71% of new renewable capacity, Africa remains marginalised
Asia dominated global new renewable energy capacity in 2024 with 71% of installations, while Africa recorded limited growth of only 7.2%, according to the latest annual report from IRENA.
Trump law reshapes US energy markets according to Wood Mackenzie
US President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act dramatically changes energy investment rules, imposing restrictions on renewables while favouring hydrocarbons, according to a recent report by consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie.
The French Senate adopts the Gremillet bill for energy transition
On July 8, 2025, the Senate validated the Gremillet bill, aimed at structuring France's energy transition with clear objectives for nuclear power, renewable energies, and energy renovation.
Latin America’s six largest economies accelerate transition to renewables
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru significantly increase renewable electricity production, reaching nearly 70% of the regional electricity mix, according to a recent Wood Mackenzie study on Latin America's energy sector.
Canada funds 13 Indigenous energy projects with $40mn investment
The Canadian government announces an investment of more than $40mn to fund 13 energy projects led by Indigenous communities across the country, aiming to improve energy efficiency and increase local renewable energy use.
Czech Republic hit by massive power outage disrupting the economy
A major electricity blackout paralyzed large parts of the Czech Republic, interrupting transport and essential networks, raising immediate economic concerns, and highlighting the vulnerability of energy infrastructures to unforeseen technical incidents.
France anticipates significant slowdown in emission reductions starting in 2025
French greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a global slowdown in reductions forecast for the full year, according to Citepa, an independent organisation responsible for national monitoring.
U.S. Senate Approves Accelerated End to Renewable Energy Tax Credits
The Republican budget bill passed by the U.S. Senate accelerates the phase-out of tax credits for renewable energies, favoring fossil fuels and raising economic concerns among solar and wind industry professionals.
Brazil: renewable energy curtailment to jump by 300% by 2035
Rapid growth in solar and wind capacities will lead to a significant rise in electricity curtailment in Brazil, as existing transmission infrastructure remains inadequate to handle this massive influx of energy, according to a recent study by consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.
South Korea reduces its dependence on fossil fuels below 50%
In April 2025, fossil fuels represented 49.5% of South Korea's electricity mix, dropping below the symbolic threshold of 50% for the first time, primarily due to a historic decline in coal-generated electricity production.
US Senate adopts tax neutrality for advanced biofuels
The US Senate Finance Committee modifies the '45Z' tax credit to standardize the tax treatment of renewable fuels, thereby encouraging advanced biofuel production starting October 2025.
Renewable energy: access improving, but financing still insufficient for Africa
According to the 2025 report on global energy access, despite notable progress in renewable energy, insufficient targeted financing continues to hinder electricity and clean cooking access, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
China and the United States improve their energy performance in an unstable global context
While advanced economies maintain global energy leadership, China and the United States have significantly progressed in the security and sustainability of their energy systems, according to the World Economic Forum's annual report.
Algeria and Angola strengthen energy cooperation at US–Africa summit
On the sidelines of the US–Africa summit in Luanda, Algiers and Luanda consolidate their energy collaboration to better exploit their oil, gas, and mining potential, targeting a common strategy in regional and international markets.
UK urged to accelerate electricity price reforms
The UK's Climate Change Committee is urging the government to quickly reduce electricity costs to facilitate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, judged too slow to achieve the set climate targets.
Brussels expands subsidies for low-carbon technologies and nuclear power
The European Commission will extend until the end of 2030 an expanded state-aid framework, allowing capitals to fund low-carbon technologies and nuclear power to preserve competitiveness against China and the United States.
Japan Faces Major Electricity Shortfall of 89 GW by 2050
Japan's grid operator forecasts an energy shortfall of up to 89 GW by 2050 due to rising demand from semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence technologies.
EU Approves Targeted Energy Aid for Europe’s Heavy Industries
Energy-intensive European industries will be eligible for temporary state aid to mitigate high electricity prices, according to a new regulatory framework proposed by the European Commission under the "Clean Industrial Deal."
Mauritius launches international tender for floating power plant
Mauritius seeks international investors to swiftly build a floating power plant of around 100 MW, aiming to secure the national energy supply by January 2026 and address current production shortfalls.
Spain and Portugal Strengthen Networks Following April Blackout
Madrid announces immediate energy storage measures while Lisbon secures its electrical grid, responding to the historic outage that affected the entire Iberian Peninsula in late April.

LEGAL

FOSSILS

POLICY

RENEWABLE

PLUS

© XMARKET PUBLISHING