Iran: Between economic openness and energy isolation

The Iranian presidential election pits Pezeshkian, who favors economic openness, against Jalili, who favors self-sufficiency. A crucial decision for the country's energy future.

Share:

Investissements énergie Iran

Iran is preparing to elect a new president, with two candidates with radically different visions for the future of the country’s energy industry. Masoud Pezeshkian, former Minister of Health, defends a strategy of economic openness and attracting foreign investment, while Saeed Jalili, former nuclear regulator, advocates a policy of self-sufficiency and economic resilience. This election will determine Iran’s energy trajectory for years to come.

Pezeshkian’s Pro-Investment strategy

Masoud Pezeshkian proposes resuming nuclear negotiations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to lift economic sanctions and attract foreign investment. According to Pezeshkian, Iran needs $250 billion in annual investment to modernize and increase the capacity of its oil industry. He believes that international cooperation is essential to achieve these goals.
Energy expert Hamid Hosseini maintains that Pezeshkian firmly believes in the importance of international interaction to revive the Iranian economy. Lifting sanctions would not only boost oil exports, but also improve the country’s overall economic situation by attracting the foreign capital needed to develop its energy infrastructure.

Jalili’s conservative approach

Saeed Jalili, for his part, is a fervent advocate of economic self-sufficiency. He proposes to build new domestic refineries to increase the added value of Iranian petroleum products. Jalili favors the use of internal financial resources to develop the upstream sector and increase oil production without relying on foreign investment.
Jalili is also known for wanting to strengthen relations with countries like Russia and China, and to reduce Iran’s dependence on US dollar transactions. Its strategy is based on increased resistance to international sanctions and maximum exploitation of internal resources to maintain and increase oil production.

Implications for the Energy Market

The election of either Pezeshkian or Jalili will have significant repercussions on the Iranian and global energy markets. Under Raisi’s presidency, Iran managed to increase its oil production despite sanctions, reaching 3.17 million barrels per day in May 2024. Nevertheless, the Iranian economy remains fragile, with high inflation and renewed US sanctions.
Pezeshkian’s vision for lifting sanctions and attracting foreign investment could stabilize and boost the Iranian economy. On the other hand, Jalili’s strategy of increasing self-sufficiency could limit opportunities for foreign investment, but would guarantee a degree of economic independence.

Economic outlook

Whoever wins the election, Iran will have to overcome many challenges to achieve its energy goals. The country will have to navigate between the need to lift sanctions to attract investment and the desire to maintain a degree of economic independence.
Iran’s energy policy will play a crucial role in the country’s economic future. With some of the world’s largest oil reserves, decisions taken in Tehran will have global repercussions. Investors and analysts will be watching developments closely, as they will influence not only the Iranian economy but also the dynamics of the international oil market.

Asia dominated global new renewable energy capacity in 2024 with 71% of installations, while Africa recorded limited growth of only 7.2%, according to the latest annual report from IRENA.
US President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act dramatically changes energy investment rules, imposing restrictions on renewables while favouring hydrocarbons, according to a recent report by consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie.
On July 8, 2025, the Senate validated the Gremillet bill, aimed at structuring France's energy transition with clear objectives for nuclear power, renewable energies, and energy renovation.
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile, and Peru significantly increase renewable electricity production, reaching nearly 70% of the regional electricity mix, according to a recent Wood Mackenzie study on Latin America's energy sector.
The Canadian government announces an investment of more than $40mn to fund 13 energy projects led by Indigenous communities across the country, aiming to improve energy efficiency and increase local renewable energy use.
A major electricity blackout paralyzed large parts of the Czech Republic, interrupting transport and essential networks, raising immediate economic concerns, and highlighting the vulnerability of energy infrastructures to unforeseen technical incidents.
French greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a global slowdown in reductions forecast for the full year, according to Citepa, an independent organisation responsible for national monitoring.
The Republican budget bill passed by the U.S. Senate accelerates the phase-out of tax credits for renewable energies, favoring fossil fuels and raising economic concerns among solar and wind industry professionals.
Rapid growth in solar and wind capacities will lead to a significant rise in electricity curtailment in Brazil, as existing transmission infrastructure remains inadequate to handle this massive influx of energy, according to a recent study by consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.
In April 2025, fossil fuels represented 49.5% of South Korea's electricity mix, dropping below the symbolic threshold of 50% for the first time, primarily due to a historic decline in coal-generated electricity production.
The US Senate Finance Committee modifies the '45Z' tax credit to standardize the tax treatment of renewable fuels, thereby encouraging advanced biofuel production starting October 2025.
According to the 2025 report on global energy access, despite notable progress in renewable energy, insufficient targeted financing continues to hinder electricity and clean cooking access, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
While advanced economies maintain global energy leadership, China and the United States have significantly progressed in the security and sustainability of their energy systems, according to the World Economic Forum's annual report.
On the sidelines of the US–Africa summit in Luanda, Algiers and Luanda consolidate their energy collaboration to better exploit their oil, gas, and mining potential, targeting a common strategy in regional and international markets.
The UK's Climate Change Committee is urging the government to quickly reduce electricity costs to facilitate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, judged too slow to achieve the set climate targets.
The European Commission will extend until the end of 2030 an expanded state-aid framework, allowing capitals to fund low-carbon technologies and nuclear power to preserve competitiveness against China and the United States.
Japan's grid operator forecasts an energy shortfall of up to 89 GW by 2050 due to rising demand from semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence technologies.
Energy-intensive European industries will be eligible for temporary state aid to mitigate high electricity prices, according to a new regulatory framework proposed by the European Commission under the "Clean Industrial Deal."
Mauritius seeks international investors to swiftly build a floating power plant of around 100 MW, aiming to secure the national energy supply by January 2026 and address current production shortfalls.
Madrid announces immediate energy storage measures while Lisbon secures its electrical grid, responding to the historic outage that affected the entire Iberian Peninsula in late April.