The gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, signed in 2019, comes to an end in 2024.
This agreement has enabled Russia to transport up to 40 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year through Ukrainian territory, supplying a large part of Europe. This infrastructure is crucial for countries such as Austria, Slovakia and Hungary, which remain partially dependent on Russian gas supplies.The gradual reduction in European dependence on Russian gas since 2022, in response to the invasion of Ukraine, has not completely eliminated the need for transit via Ukraine.
In 2023, 14.65 bcm of gas still passed through this strategic corridor.
Kiev, firmly opposed to extending the agreement, has already indicated that there will be no renewal, casting serious doubt on the continuity of gas flows beyond 2024.
The alternatives available to compensate for a possible cessation of transit via Ukraine are limited.
The TurkStream pipeline, linking Russia to Southern Europe via the Black Sea, does not have the capacity to fully replace current volumes.
Moreover, although the European Union has stepped up its efforts to diversify its sources of supply, notably with Azerbaijan via the Southern European Gas Corridor, these initiatives cannot quickly compensate for the possible loss of Ukrainian transit.
The financial impact for Gazprom would be significant if flows via Ukraine were to cease, with an estimated loss of revenue of $4.5 billion a year.
However, the stakes go far beyond economic considerations.
The end of the agreement could accentuate tensions between Russia, Ukraine and the countries of the European Union, increasing the risk of further disruption to energy markets.
European governments and industrial players alike must now anticipate these scenarios by strengthening their infrastructures and continuing to diversify energy sources.
These measures are essential to limit the risk of supply disruptions and to guarantee the continent’s long-term energy stability.
