EIA’s oil production forecast

The EIA expects non-OPEC countries, such as the United States, Brazil and Canada, to experience an increase in oil production, while OPEC production will decline in 2023 before rebounding in 2024. This should result in relatively stable oil prices.

Share:

The U.S. Energy Information Agency’s(EIA) short-term energy outlook forecast calls for non-OPEC countries to experience increased oil production gains this year and next. This marks a reversal of the last two years, when OPEC was responsible for the majority of production gains.

EIA says U.S. on track to become oil production leader

The report highlights that countries such as the United States, Brazil, Canada and Guyana will drive this growth and overshadow OPECThis comes after Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries announced plans to cut production by about 1.16 million barrels a day starting next month.

According to the EIA, total non-OPEC liquid fuels production is expected to increase by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1 million barrels per day in 2024. In contrast, OPEC production will decline by 500,000 barrels per day in 2023 and then increase by 1 million barrels per day in 2024, after the group’s production agreement expires.

The report also highlights that nearly half of the expected gains by non-OPEC producers over the next two years will come from the United States. U.S. crude oil production is expected to increase by 5.5% to 12.54 million barrels per day this year and by 1.7% to 12.75 million barrels per day in 2024.

In addition, the EIA predicts that U.S. retail gasoline prices will hover around $3.50 per gallon this summer, peaking between $3.60 per gallon and $3.70 per gallon in June. This represents a significant drop from last year, when prices spiked as high as $5 per gallon as oil prices rose and storage levels fell. According to EIA forecasts, the average U.S. household is expected to spend between $2,140 and $2,730 on gasoline this year, up from $2,780 in 2022.

Stable oil demand in global oil markets

The report also indicates that gasoline inventories are declining as refineries undergo renovations, raising fears of higher prices this summer. However, the EIA estimates that refinery gasoline production will grow faster than U.S. consumption, increasing inventories and driving down prices. The average retail price of a gallon of gasoline in the U.S. was $3.608 this week, compared to $4.11 a year earlier.

The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around $85 a barrel this year, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to be around $79.24. Both estimates were about $2 higher than EIA’s March forecast of OPEC production restrictions.

However, higher crude oil prices could hurt refining margins and encourage refiners to reduce throughput, the EIA warned, forecasting average U.S. refinery utilization of 90% this year, down from over 91% last year.

Finally, the EIA expects global oil markets to be in relative balance in the coming year, with oil demand remaining relatively stable. Liquid fuel consumption is expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024. U.S. consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels would increase by 0.5 percent to 20.4 million barrels per day in 2023 and then increase by 1.6 percent to 20.7 million barrels per day in 2024.

  • Populaires ​
Ignitis begins construction of three energy storage parks in Lithuania
Shell ships first LNG cargo from its LNG Canada facility
Dalinar Energy wins recommendation to acquire Citgo with $7.38bn bid
TotalEnergies acquires 1.5 GW of AES renewable assets in the Caribbean
Japan and Siemens Gamesa sign strategic offshore wind agreement
France anticipates significant slowdown in emission reductions starting in 2025
French greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a global slowdown in reductions forecast for the full year, according to Citepa, an independent organisation responsible for national monitoring.
U.S. Senate Approves Accelerated End to Renewable Energy Tax Credits
The Republican budget bill passed by the U.S. Senate accelerates the phase-out of tax credits for renewable energies, favoring fossil fuels and raising economic concerns among solar and wind industry professionals.
Brazil: renewable energy curtailment to jump by 300% by 2035
Rapid growth in solar and wind capacities will lead to a significant rise in electricity curtailment in Brazil, as existing transmission infrastructure remains inadequate to handle this massive influx of energy, according to a recent study by consulting firm Wood Mackenzie.
South Korea reduces its dependence on fossil fuels below 50%
In April 2025, fossil fuels represented 49.5% of South Korea's electricity mix, dropping below the symbolic threshold of 50% for the first time, primarily due to a historic decline in coal-generated electricity production.
US Senate adopts tax neutrality for advanced biofuels
The US Senate Finance Committee modifies the '45Z' tax credit to standardize the tax treatment of renewable fuels, thereby encouraging advanced biofuel production starting October 2025.
Renewable energy: access improving, but financing still insufficient for Africa
According to the 2025 report on global energy access, despite notable progress in renewable energy, insufficient targeted financing continues to hinder electricity and clean cooking access, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
China and the United States improve their energy performance in an unstable global context
While advanced economies maintain global energy leadership, China and the United States have significantly progressed in the security and sustainability of their energy systems, according to the World Economic Forum's annual report.
Algeria and Angola strengthen energy cooperation at US–Africa summit
On the sidelines of the US–Africa summit in Luanda, Algiers and Luanda consolidate their energy collaboration to better exploit their oil, gas, and mining potential, targeting a common strategy in regional and international markets.
UK urged to accelerate electricity price reforms
The UK's Climate Change Committee is urging the government to quickly reduce electricity costs to facilitate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, judged too slow to achieve the set climate targets.
Brussels expands subsidies for low-carbon technologies and nuclear power
The European Commission will extend until the end of 2030 an expanded state-aid framework, allowing capitals to fund low-carbon technologies and nuclear power to preserve competitiveness against China and the United States.
Japan Faces Major Electricity Shortfall of 89 GW by 2050
Japan's grid operator forecasts an energy shortfall of up to 89 GW by 2050 due to rising demand from semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence technologies.
EU Approves Targeted Energy Aid for Europe’s Heavy Industries
Energy-intensive European industries will be eligible for temporary state aid to mitigate high electricity prices, according to a new regulatory framework proposed by the European Commission under the "Clean Industrial Deal."
Mauritius launches international tender for floating power plant
Mauritius seeks international investors to swiftly build a floating power plant of around 100 MW, aiming to secure the national energy supply by January 2026 and address current production shortfalls.
Spain and Portugal Strengthen Networks Following April Blackout
Madrid announces immediate energy storage measures while Lisbon secures its electrical grid, responding to the historic outage that affected the entire Iberian Peninsula in late April.
Indonesia Commits 190 Billion USD to Expand Energy Capacity by 2034
Indonesia has unveiled its new national energy plan, projecting an increase of 69.5 GW in electricity capacity over ten years, largely funded by independent producers, to address rapidly rising domestic demand.
France: Moratorium on renewables; warning about immediate industrial impact
French Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher condemns the parliamentary moratorium on new renewable energy installations, warning of the potential loss of 150,000 industrial jobs and increased energy dependence on foreign countries.
New European Battery Regulation Disrupts Europe’s Industrial Sector
The European battery regulation, fully effective from August 18, significantly alters industrial requirements related to electric cars and bicycles, imposing strict rules on recycling, supply chains, and transparency for companies.
European Parliament urges Brussels to act on energy grids
The European Parliament calls on the Commission to strengthen energy infrastructure and accelerate the implementation of the Clean Industrial Deal to enhance the continent's energy flexibility and security amid increased market volatility.
Europe Commits Major Investments to Electricity Grids and the Clean Industrial Deal
The European Commission unveils an ambitious plan to modernize electricity grids and introduces the Clean Industrial Deal, mobilizing hundreds of billions of euros to strengthen the continent's industrial and energy autonomy.
Wood Mackenzie highlights advantage of regulated utilities amid data centre boom
In the United States, regulated electric grid operators hold a decisive advantage in connecting new data centres to the grid, now representing 134 GW of projects, according to a Wood Mackenzie report published on June 19.

LEGAL

FOSSILS

POLICY

RENEWABLE

PLUS

© XMARKET PUBLISHING

Welcome

Your subscription

Included in this subscription:

COMMUNICATE ON ENERGYNEWS