The global aviation fuel market is experiencing sustained expansion. According to data from SkyQuest Technology Consulting, it was valued at USD 351.11 billion in 2024 and could reach USD 751.01 billion in 2032. This progression corresponds to a compound annual growth rate of 10.11% over the period 2025-2032. The ongoing growth of commercial air transport, combined with the rise in international trade of goods and passengers, strongly stimulates demand for aviation fuel.
Airlines must adjust their supplies to face this trend. The increase in passenger and freight flows imposes higher consumption, placing aviation fuel at the core of the sector’s financial balance. Industry players are focusing on diversifying production sources, gradually integrating alternative fuels to meet regulatory and economic requirements. These developments translate into a reshaping of competitive dynamics and the strengthening of new partnerships.
Drivers of global growth
Several factors explain this upward trajectory. First, the increase in international travel directly contributes to rising fuel consumption. The growth of middle classes in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, generates strong demand for commercial flights. At the same time, air freight exchanges are progressing under the influence of e-commerce and globalized supply chains. These combined elements result in structurally high consumption.
Technological innovation in aircraft design and engineering also contributes to this dynamic. Manufacturers are working to improve the energy efficiency of aircraft, which promotes more effective fuel use. However, these efficiency gains do not fully offset the rise in demand. The net result remains continuous growth in consumption. Airlines must therefore secure supplies and adapt to price volatility.
The role of alternative fuels
Another key factor lies in the rise of alternative fuels, known as Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF). These fuels, derived from renewable raw materials, are attracting growing interest from airlines and governments. Their adoption responds to regulatory requirements but also reflects the willingness of industry players to diversify their sources of supply and reduce dependence on traditional hydrocarbons.
Recent contracts highlight this evolution. TotalEnergies signed an agreement with Air France-KLM for the delivery of 1.5 million tons of sustainable fuel over ten years. Boeing announced the purchase of 7.5 million gallons of a blend containing 30% SAF for its demonstration programs. Airbus strengthened its ties with TotalEnergies to secure supply and develop new fuels compatible with both current and future aircraft. These initiatives are creating a new market segment within the global aviation fuel industry.
Pressures from Brent prices
Oil price volatility remains a structuring factor. Aviation fuel, being derived from Brent crude, is directly correlated with fluctuations in the oil market. The reduction in crude production decided by certain members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), notably Saudi Arabia, has helped maintain high price levels. This situation increases the energy bill for airlines.
Impacts vary by region. Low-income areas, such as parts of Africa and Asia-Pacific, are particularly sensitive to these increases. Higher prices translate into increased ticket costs, limiting access to air travel for a significant portion of the population. The risk for airlines is a contraction of demand in the most price-sensitive markets, weighing on profitability.
Global market segmentation
The aviation fuel market is divided into several key segments. From a technological perspective, processes include conventional refining, hydrotreating, catalytic cracking, isomerization, and various conversion methods such as alcohol-to-jet or biomass-to-liquid. Among these pathways, HEFA-SPK (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids – Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene) dominates due to its compatibility with existing engines and broad regulatory acceptance.
By aircraft type, fixed-wing aircraft account for more than 70% of global consumption, due to their central role in passenger and freight transport. Military helicopters, drones, and specialized aircraft also contribute but in smaller proportions. In terms of fuel, Jet A/A-1 remains dominant with around 96% of the market share in 2024. Nevertheless, the gradual integration of SAF and the growing interest in hydrogen and power-to-liquid fuels suggest a progressive diversification of the energy mix.
Competitive landscape
Major sector players include ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, and Reliance Petroleum, which rank among the top five companies in terms of revenue. ExxonMobil is expected to generate USD 339.9 billion in 2024, followed by Shell with USD 302 billion, TotalEnergies with USD 210.2 billion, and Chevron with USD 194.7 billion. These companies ensure production, refining, and distribution of aviation fuel on a global scale.
In addition to these leaders, specialized producers such as Neste Corporation and World Energy are focusing on the growth of sustainable fuels. Their role is becoming central as airlines look for solutions compatible with regulatory requirements. Competition is therefore structured between the major oil groups, which dominate conventional production, and emerging players positioned in the SAF segment.
Regional developments
In North America, the market is driven by a robust commercial aviation sector and fiscal incentives favoring biofuel production, notably through the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States. Airlines benefit from a regulatory framework conducive to the integration of alternative fuels, while still consuming conventional fuel on a large scale.
In Asia-Pacific, growth is the fastest. Rising middle-class incomes and the expansion of aircraft fleets sustain strong demand. China and India are investing in research and development of alternative fuels, while Southeast Asia seeks to attract capital to develop production infrastructure. Countries in this region stand out for their desire to increase energy independence.
In Europe, the dynamic relies on strict regulations. The Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) imposes additional costs on airlines, encouraging greater use of sustainable fuels. Partnerships between European suppliers and carriers are fostering the growth of SAF. Experiments on hydrogen and power-to-liquid fuels illustrate an ongoing diversification.
The Middle East maintains a key position thanks to its refining capacity and central role in intercontinental routes. In Latin America, new airline routes and infrastructure investments drive demand. In Africa, traffic growth remains constrained by economic factors, but demographic expansion and rising trade could stimulate long-term consumption.
