The historic exceedance of the 1.5°C global warming threshold compared to pre-industrial levels in 2024 highlights a new stage in the global climate crisis. According to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), current trends show that this year will be the hottest on record, amplifying environmental and economic challenges.
In November 2024, the global temperature exceeded the pre-industrial November baseline by 1.62°C. These figures surpass the ambitious limit set by the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming below 2°C while striving to limit it to 1.5°C. However, such annual exceedances are not enough to consider this threshold permanently crossed, as it is measured over long-term trends.
Alarming Economic and Social Impacts
The year was also marked by more intense natural disasters. Devastating typhoons in Asia, historic droughts in Southern Africa and the Amazon, and global economic losses estimated at $310 billion, according to Swiss Re, demonstrate the tangible consequences of warming.
Current policies appear insufficient to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The UN Environment Program estimates the world is heading towards a catastrophic warming of 3.1°C by the end of the century. Even with current climate commitments, more significant reductions in emissions are needed to avoid irreversible climate impacts.
A Slow Energy Transition
Recent international negotiations, including COP29, have not yielded significant progress. Developing countries, which secured a promise of $300 billion in annual aid from wealthy nations by 2035, remain dissatisfied with funding that is largely insufficient for their energy transition.
The lack of explicit commitment to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels at COP28 in Dubai also highlights the sluggish pace of global transition. Meanwhile, Antarctica is experiencing record ice melt, with sea ice remaining at historically low levels since 2023, exacerbating the effects of global warming.
A Critical Milestone for Climate Future
The combination of the El Niño phenomenon and human-induced warming contributed to these new records. According to climatologist Robert Vautard, the year following El Niño is often warmer, with heat redistributing throughout the months. If global temperatures do not drop significantly in 2025, it could signal a new climate paradigm.
A study published in Science also highlighted a reduction in low-altitude clouds, decreasing Earth’s ability to reflect solar energy into space, a phenomenon exacerbating rising temperatures.
