United States: natural gas prices expected to rise by 44% in 2025

U.S. natural gas futures point to a 44% increase in prices in 2025, driven by sustained demand and possible supply tensions.

Share:

Terminal LNG aux Etats-Unis

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

U.S. natural gas futures markets signal a significant price increase for 2025.
Based on current data, futures contracts on the benchmark Henry Hub are projecting an average price of $3.20 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), compared with an average of $2.22 this year.
This marked increase of 44% would represent the strongest annual rise since 2022.
It comes at a time when demand for natural gas is being boosted by electricity and industrial consumption, as well as liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

Overcapacity and Rising Demand

In 2024, natural gas markets in the United States were marked by high inventories and low prices.
After a mild winter, inventories remained around 10% above the historical average, limiting price increases despite high consumption due to hot summer weather.
Dry gas production, averaging 102.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in the first eight months of 2024, reached record levels, supported by a slight increase in production year-on-year.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a further increase in average production to 105 Bcf/d in 2025.

Impact of LNG Exports and Energy Consumption

LNG exports, a mainstay of gas demand, are set to grow strongly.
Gas consumption by LNG exporters, or “feedgas”, is set to rise from the current 13 Bcf/d to 17 Bcf/d by the end of 2025, according to LSEG.
This rise coincides with the commissioning of new export terminals and increased global demand.
At the same time, natural gas consumption by the power sector, which accounts for 38% of total gas demand in the USA, continues to grow, with gas-fired power plants gradually replacing coal-fired ones.

Market Impact and Player Strategies

Higher natural gas prices should lead to a supply response, encouraging producers to step up their activities.
However, higher costs could also weigh on demand, particularly in price-sensitive industrial sectors.
Changes in gas prices could also impact on the profitability of LNG exports, particularly for operators without long-term contracts with favorable terms.
Export prices remain favorable, with a significant differential between the Henry Hub and the European market, but this dynamic could change.
Currently, the average gas price in the Netherlands is around 4.6 times that of the Henry Hub, offering attractive margin opportunities for US exporters.
However, this differential is set to narrow to 3.5 times by the end of 2025, due in particular to rising US prices and a possible drop in European prices.

Outlook for Investors and Operators

Fluctuating gas futures prices in the US and international markets continue to shape the strategic decisions of producers and exporters.
Managing supply and demand becomes crucial as factors such as weather conditions, energy policies and global LNG demand influence forecasts.
Market players are closely monitoring these variables to adjust their short- and long-term positioning, well aware of the uncertainties inherent in the balance between supply and demand.

Pembina Pipeline Corporation has completed a $225mn subordinated note offering to fund the redemption of its Series 9 preferred shares, marking a new step in its capital management strategy.
A jihadist attack targeted Palma, a strategic area in northern Mozambique, marking a return of insecurity near TotalEnergies' suspended gas project since 2021.
Fermi America has signed an agreement with Energy Transfer to secure a firm natural gas supply for powering Phase One of its HyperGrid energy campus, dedicated to artificial intelligence, near Amarillo, Texas.
Rockpoint Gas Storage priced its initial public offering at C$22 per share, raising C$704mn ($515mn) through the sale of 32 million shares, with an over-allotment option expanding the transaction to 36.8 million shares.
Tailwater Capital secures $600mn in debt and $500mn in equity to recapitalise Producers Midstream II and support infrastructure development in the southern United States.
An economic study reveals that Germany’s gas storage levels could prevent up to €25 billion in economic losses during a winter supply shock.
New Fortress Energy has initiated the initial ignition of its 624 MW CELBA 2 power plant in Brazil, starting the commissioning phase ahead of commercial operations expected later this year.
Talen Energy launches $1.2bn debt financing and expands credit facilities to support strategic acquisitions of two combined-cycle natural gas power plants.
The Ukrainian government is preparing to raise natural gas imports by 30% to offset damage to its energy infrastructure and ensure supply continuity during the winter season.
Driven by rising electricity demand and grid flexibility needs, natural gas power generation is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4.8% through 2030.
Talen Energy secures $1.2bn term financing and increases two credit facilities to support the acquisition of two natural gas power plants with a combined capacity of 2,881 MW.
Tenaz Energy finalised the purchase of stakes in the GEMS project between Dutch and German waters, aiming to boost production to 7,000 boe/d by 2026.
Sembcorp Salalah Power & Water Company has obtained a new 10-year Power and Water Purchase Agreement from Nama Power and Water Procurement Company, ensuring operational continuity until 2037.
Eni North Africa restarts drilling operations on well C1-16/4 off the Libyan coast, suspended since 2020, aiming to complete exploration near the Bahr Es Salam gas field.
GOIL is investing $50mn to expand its LPG storage capacity in response to sustained demand growth and to improve national supply security.
QatarEnergy continues its international expansion by acquiring 27% of the offshore North Cleopatra block from Shell, amid Egypt’s strategic push to revive gas exploration in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Polish authorities have 40 days to decide on the extradition of a Ukrainian accused of participating in the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea.
The Japanese company has completed the first phase of a tender for five annual cargoes of liquefied natural gas over seven years starting in April 2027, amid a gradual contractual renewal process.
Baker Hughes has secured a contract from Bechtel to provide gas turbines and compressors for the second phase of Sempra Infrastructure’s LNG export project in Texas.
Targa Resources will build a 500,000 barrels-per-day pipeline in the Permian Basin to connect its assets to Mont Belvieu, strengthening its logistics network with commissioning scheduled for the third quarter of 2027.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.