Goldman Sachs anticipates challenges for the US administration elected in November, which will have to deal with restricted tools to increase domestic oil supply in 2025.
According to the bank, U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories are at historically low levels, reducing the ability to intervene quickly on the markets.
Furthermore, the easing of regulations, often cited as a potential lever, would only have a significant impact in the long term, without guaranteeing a notable increase in supply in the short term.
The US economy continues to show signs of resilience, with recently released economic data exceeding analysts’ expectations.
These results have bolstered oil demand forecasts, keeping crude prices high. Brent crude futures for September are trading at around $82 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate is at around $78 a barrel.
Price forecasts and the impact of trade policies
Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude prices will fluctuate between $75 and $90 a barrel in 2025, provided that gross domestic product (GDP) growth follows a stable trend and oil demand remains buoyant.
The role of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies in balancing the market also remains a key factor in these forecasts.
However, the bank warns of the uncertainties associated with trade policy.
In a scenario where the United States imposes a 10% tariff on imported goods, oil prices could fall by as much as $11 per barrel.
This situation would be exacerbated if the US Federal Reserve delayed interest rate cuts due to higher-than-expected core inflation.
Against this backdrop, forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 could see Brent crude fall to 62 dollars a barrel, well below the 81 dollars currently anticipated.
