Trump Revives Tariff Threat on Oil: What Impact on the U.S. Industry?

Donald Trump's promise to impose 25% tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico raises concerns among experts, fearing higher energy costs and escalating trade tensions in North America.

Partagez:

Donald Trump’s recent declaration to impose 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico starting on his first day in office in 2025 has cast uncertainty over the U.S. oil industry. Although these measures are framed as a negotiation tactic, experts are already debating the economic implications for the energy sector.

In July 2024, the U.S. imported a record 4.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of Canadian crude oil, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). These imports, representing nearly 50% of foreign crude consumed in the U.S., are essential for the operations of American refineries. If the new tariffs were enacted without exemptions, they could significantly raise costs for these facilities, potentially leading to higher gasoline prices for American consumers.

A Controversial Negotiation Tool

Donald Trump’s approach of announcing drastic measures as a starting point for trade negotiations is not new. In 2026, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), will undergo a mandatory review. Trump’s tariff threats could serve as leverage to secure concessions within this framework.

However, critics are already highlighting the risks associated with this strategy. “It’s a pressure tactic that, if implemented, could seriously disrupt the energy market,” explained William Reinsch, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. According to him, exemptions for energy products, particularly crude oil and refined products, would be necessary to limit the economic fallout.

Industry Advocates for Free Trade

U.S. oil and gas industry stakeholders have voiced their opposition to protectionist measures that could increase supply costs and reduce the sector’s competitiveness. Scott Lauermann, spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute (API), emphasized the importance of the energy partnership with Canada and Mexico, stating, “Maintaining free trade is crucial for North American energy security and U.S. consumers.”

American refineries, particularly in the PADD 2 region (Midwest), rely heavily on Canadian crude, a source difficult to replace due to its specific composition. According to Bob McNally, president of the Rapidan Energy Group, a 25% tariff would lead to higher pump prices, especially in Midwestern states, exacerbating economic pressures on households.

A Burdensome Exemption Process

Although exemptions are deemed likely, their implementation remains a contentious issue. Companies would need to navigate a complex and costly process to obtain waivers, which might discourage some from pursuing them. “The exemption process is often perceived as an additional burden with a high rejection rate,” said Josh Zive, legal expert at Bracewell LLP.

For now, observers hope that consultations between the energy sector and the Trump administration will prevent these tariffs. Nevertheless, the only certainty lies in the uncertainty surrounding future U.S. trade policies, as companies prepare for a variety of scenarios.

According to the 2025 report on global energy access, despite notable progress in renewable energy, insufficient targeted financing continues to hinder electricity and clean cooking access, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.
While advanced economies maintain global energy leadership, China and the United States have significantly progressed in the security and sustainability of their energy systems, according to the World Economic Forum's annual report.
On the sidelines of the US–Africa summit in Luanda, Algiers and Luanda consolidate their energy collaboration to better exploit their oil, gas, and mining potential, targeting a common strategy in regional and international markets.
The UK's Climate Change Committee is urging the government to quickly reduce electricity costs to facilitate the adoption of heat pumps and electric vehicles, judged too slow to achieve the set climate targets.
The European Commission will extend until the end of 2030 an expanded state-aid framework, allowing capitals to fund low-carbon technologies and nuclear power to preserve competitiveness against China and the United States.
Japan's grid operator forecasts an energy shortfall of up to 89 GW by 2050 due to rising demand from semiconductor manufacturing, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence technologies.
Energy-intensive European industries will be eligible for temporary state aid to mitigate high electricity prices, according to a new regulatory framework proposed by the European Commission under the "Clean Industrial Deal."
Mauritius seeks international investors to swiftly build a floating power plant of around 100 MW, aiming to secure the national energy supply by January 2026 and address current production shortfalls.
Madrid announces immediate energy storage measures while Lisbon secures its electrical grid, responding to the historic outage that affected the entire Iberian Peninsula in late April.
Indonesia has unveiled its new national energy plan, projecting an increase of 69.5 GW in electricity capacity over ten years, largely funded by independent producers, to address rapidly rising domestic demand.
French Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher condemns the parliamentary moratorium on new renewable energy installations, warning of the potential loss of 150,000 industrial jobs and increased energy dependence on foreign countries.
The European battery regulation, fully effective from August 18, significantly alters industrial requirements related to electric cars and bicycles, imposing strict rules on recycling, supply chains, and transparency for companies.
The European Parliament calls on the Commission to strengthen energy infrastructure and accelerate the implementation of the Clean Industrial Deal to enhance the continent's energy flexibility and security amid increased market volatility.
The European Commission unveils an ambitious plan to modernize electricity grids and introduces the Clean Industrial Deal, mobilizing hundreds of billions of euros to strengthen the continent's industrial and energy autonomy.
In the United States, regulated electric grid operators hold a decisive advantage in connecting new data centres to the grid, now representing 134 GW of projects, according to a Wood Mackenzie report published on June 19.
The French National Assembly approves a specific target of 200 TWh renewable electricity production by 2030 within a legislative text extensively debated about the future national energy mix.
In 2024, US CO₂ emissions remain stable at 5.1bn tonnes, as the Trump administration prepares hydrocarbon-friendly energy policies, raising questions about the future evolution of the American market.
The early publication of France's energy decree triggers strong parliamentary reactions, as the government aims to rapidly secure investments in nuclear and other energy sectors.
Seven weeks after the major Iberian power outage, Spain identifies technical network failures, while the European Investment Bank approves major funding to strengthen the interconnection with France.
The European Union has announced a detailed schedule aiming to definitively halt Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, anticipating internal legal and commercial challenges to overcome.