popular articles

The UAE-Israel oil deal: a geopolitical revolution?

The normalization of ties between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel raises crucial questions about the oil agreement and the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline. This potential agreement, which would make it possible to bypass the Suez Canal, could have major implications for oil supply routes in the Middle East, redrawing the region's strategic balance.
accord pétrolier

Please share:

Is the UAE-Israel oil deal a strategic turning point in the Middle East? At any rate, this is the question that arises after the historic normalization of ties between the two countries. The Israeli government has just announced the opening of discussions with Dubai concerning the use of a joint oil pipeline (the Europe Asia Pipeline). It links the Red Sea port of Eilat with Ashkelon in the Mediterranean, bypassing the Suez Canal.

With a capacity of 600,000 barrels/day, this pipeline will mainly be used to transport crude oil from the Middle East to Europe. It will be co-managed by the Israeli state-owned company EAPC and the Emirati company MED-RED Land Bridge. Operating in both directions, the pipeline will also be able to transport crude oil from Central Asia and Europe to the Indian Ocean. If the project goes ahead, it could become a major oil route in the years to come.

The strategic importance of the UAE-Israel oil deal

The announcement of talks on the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline sent shockwaves through the Middle East. The question of oil supply routes is central in a region still highly dependent on hydrocarbon exports. Several factors explain the strategic importance of this new road.

UAE-Israel oil agreement

The vulnerability of the Suez Canal

The first factor is the vulnerability of the Suez Canal route and its pipeline, SUMED. Due to its lack of depth, the canal is effectively unable to accommodate VLCC supertankers. They can load around 2 million barrels, twice the maximum allowed on this route. As a result, crude carriers have to use two vessels instead of a single VLCC, generating additional costs.

They can also transport their crude via the SUMMED pipeline built parallel to the Suez Canal. The problem, however, lies in the pipeline’s limited capacity, which can only handle 2.34 million barrels/day. This represents a mere 40% of oil flows through the canal. With the increase in traffic, we can therefore expect this road to become rapidly congested over the next few years.

The Suez Canal is the world’s third-largest oil transit route. Nearly 6 million barrels are transported by this route every day. This makes the UAE-Israel pipeline an interesting alternative, particularly for the use of VLCCs to relieve traffic congestion.

A conflict of influence with Turkey

The UAE-Israel oil deal should also be seen as a strategy for the influence of both countries on the regional scene. For the Israeli government, the agreement opens up the possibility of turning the country into a transit zone for Europe. Tel Aviv’s ambition is to become an oil and gas hub in order to increase its influence in the region. This ambition is also shared by Turkey, which is the big loser in the rapprochement between Dubai and Tel Aviv.

For the Emiratis, the oil agreement serves to counter Turkish influence on transit to Europe. Dubai thus hopes to compete with the Kirkuk-Ceyhan route, which transports 500,000 barrels/day of Iraqi crude through Turkey. The UAE also plans to deliver gas to Europe via an extension of the EastMed pipeline. This could make it possible to capitalize on Dubai’s recent huge gas discoveries in its Jebel Ali field.

At this point, however, the gas project has barely gone beyond the discussion stage. Nevertheless, it could be an important element in the future relationship between the Israeli and Emirati governments.

The uncertainties of the UAE-Israel oil deal

In some respects, the UAE-Israel oil deal is very ambitious, and not limited to the oil sector alone. Yet there are still grey areas that cast doubt on the agreement’s true strategic significance.

The project’s lack of transparency

One of the first questions raised by the project concerns its relative lack of transparency. Indeed, the Israeli government has always refused to publish information on the physical and financial state of the pipeline. This is due to the special nature of the Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline, which was originally conceived as a joint project with Iran. After the Islamic revolution of 1979, it was unilaterally nationalized by Israel, creating a legal dispute between the two countries.

Since then, absolutely nothing has been known about the companies using the pipeline. This lack of transparency is particularly problematic for investors, especially in the event of environmental damage. In 2014, this pipeline was responsible for the worst ecological disaster in Israel’s history. This lack of transparency could considerably reduce investor interest in the project.

Regional geopolitical uncertainties

Another question concerns the geopolitical effects of the UAE-Israel oil deal. Indeed, by bypassing the Suez Canal, the draft agreement provoked the ire of Egypt. For Cairo, this is a crucial issue for its public finances and its status in the region. Under these conditions, it is not impossible that the UAE and Israel will limit their ambitions in order to satisfy the Egyptians.

Similarly, this agreement does nothing to resolve transit problems in the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb. Rivalries with Iran and instability in Yemen will therefore remain major obstacles to Emirati exports to Europe. The solution would therefore be to use the East-West pipeline that crosses Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea. However, this will depend on the pipeline’s capacity and Riyadh’s recognition of the State of Israel.

So it’s still too early to say whether the UAE-Israel oil deal represents a genuine geopolitical revolution. For this to happen, the pipeline will undoubtedly have to be extended to the Gulf countries. In practice, the scope of the project will depend to a large extent on the Saudi state’s attitude towards Israel.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

As Russia ratifies a 20-year civil nuclear agreement with Iran, the United States reopens indirect talks in Oman. Tehran demands the lifting of sanctions, while 275 kg of uranium enriched to 60% raises concerns.
Russia’s State Duma officially approves a major energy partnership with Iran, paving the way for enhanced cooperation in the oil, natural gas, and civil nuclear sectors, despite ongoing Western sanctions.
Russia’s State Duma officially approves a major energy partnership with Iran, paving the way for enhanced cooperation in the oil, natural gas, and civil nuclear sectors, despite ongoing Western sanctions.
The Venezuelan army says it will respond forcefully to any threat following allegations of a plot targeting ExxonMobil's infrastructure in contested waters off Guyana.
The Venezuelan army says it will respond forcefully to any threat following allegations of a plot targeting ExxonMobil's infrastructure in contested waters off Guyana.
Adani, via its subsidiary Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd., has launched operations at the Colombo West International Terminal, strengthening the strategic role of Colombo Port in South Asia.
Adani, via its subsidiary Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd., has launched operations at the Colombo West International Terminal, strengthening the strategic role of Colombo Port in South Asia.
The French and British governments denounce ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, despite ceasefire discussions backed by the United States.
New Delhi signed new defence and energy agreements with Colombo, consolidating its strategic influence on the island as China continues expanding its investments.
New Delhi signed new defence and energy agreements with Colombo, consolidating its strategic influence on the island as China continues expanding its investments.
European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen is in Baku to reaffirm energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, focusing on the expansion of the gas corridor and regional green energy projects.
European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen is in Baku to reaffirm energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, focusing on the expansion of the gas corridor and regional green energy projects.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ruled out any possibility of reactivating the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, shut down since 2022, despite discussions mentioned by Russia and growing pressure on energy supply.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ruled out any possibility of reactivating the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, shut down since 2022, despite discussions mentioned by Russia and growing pressure on energy supply.
The United States has sanctioned a Chinese refinery processing Iranian crude, increasing pressure on Tehran and raising concerns over global oil market stability.
The United States has cancelled oil operation authorisations in Venezuela for foreign companies, disrupting exports and reinforcing the country's economic isolation following Nicolás Maduro's contested re-election.
The United States has cancelled oil operation authorisations in Venezuela for foreign companies, disrupting exports and reinforcing the country's economic isolation following Nicolás Maduro's contested re-election.
The Algerian energy group Sonelgaz is offering its technical expertise to Burkina Faso to strengthen its electrical infrastructure, illustrating Algeria's strategic intention to consolidate its presence in sub-Saharan Africa’s energy markets.
The Algerian energy group Sonelgaz is offering its technical expertise to Burkina Faso to strengthen its electrical infrastructure, illustrating Algeria's strategic intention to consolidate its presence in sub-Saharan Africa’s energy markets.
Washington again delays the enforcement of sanctions against NIS, the Serbian energy company controlled by Gazprom, extending the status quo until the end of April according to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
Washington again delays the enforcement of sanctions against NIS, the Serbian energy company controlled by Gazprom, extending the status quo until the end of April according to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
The United States has strengthened its support for Guyana amid Venezuela’s claims over the Essequibo, warning Caracas of a military response in case of aggression targeting the territory or American oil interests.
No attacks on energy installations have been reported since a partial agreement announced by the United States, marking a pause in hostilities targeting critical infrastructure.
No attacks on energy installations have been reported since a partial agreement announced by the United States, marking a pause in hostilities targeting critical infrastructure.
During a visit to Guyana, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that any Venezuelan attack on the territory or oil infrastructure of Guyana would trigger a military response, heightening regional tensions.
During a visit to Guyana, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that any Venezuelan attack on the territory or oil infrastructure of Guyana would trigger a military response, heightening regional tensions.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio launches meetings with Caribbean leaders to discuss energy security, trade pressures and regional instability, including in Haiti and Guyana.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio launches meetings with Caribbean leaders to discuss energy security, trade pressures and regional instability, including in Haiti and Guyana.
Hungary’s Foreign Minister travelled to Moscow for talks with Russian authorities on energy security, reinforcing a strategic energy partnership already bolstered by record gas and oil deliveries in 2024.
Donald Trump imposes 25% tariffs against importers of Venezuelan oil, particularly targeting China, which has already condemned an infringement on its economic sovereignty, signaling increased tensions in global energy markets.
Donald Trump imposes 25% tariffs against importers of Venezuelan oil, particularly targeting China, which has already condemned an infringement on its economic sovereignty, signaling increased tensions in global energy markets.
The planned visit of senior US officials to Greenland sparks political backlash in Nuuk, as no new government has been formed since the 11 March elections.
The planned visit of senior US officials to Greenland sparks political backlash in Nuuk, as no new government has been formed since the 11 March elections.
Starting 2 April, the United States will apply a 25% customs duty on all goods from countries trading with Venezuela’s oil or gas sector, Donald Trump announced.
Starting 2 April, the United States will apply a 25% customs duty on all goods from countries trading with Venezuela’s oil or gas sector, Donald Trump announced.
A Panama-flagged vessel suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet was detained by German customs after suffering an engine failure in the Baltic Sea in January.
Amidst war and geopolitical uncertainty, Ukraine must choose between European influence and the strategic promises of the United States, a choice that could redefine its economic and security future, particularly in terms of natural resources.
Amidst war and geopolitical uncertainty, Ukraine must choose between European influence and the strategic promises of the United States, a choice that could redefine its economic and security future, particularly in terms of natural resources.
As Russian gas deliveries via Nord Stream have ceased, Europe is exploring possible solutions to repurpose or replace this major infrastructure within a complex energy transition and diversification of supply sources.
As Russian gas deliveries via Nord Stream have ceased, Europe is exploring possible solutions to repurpose or replace this major infrastructure within a complex energy transition and diversification of supply sources.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to discuss the sharing of rare earth resources in Ukraine on Tuesday, including energy production plants and territories rich in raw materials. These resources are at the heart of the ceasefire negotiations.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to discuss the sharing of rare earth resources in Ukraine on Tuesday, including energy production plants and territories rich in raw materials. These resources are at the heart of the ceasefire negotiations.

Advertising