Assem Jihad

Sanctioned tanker Kairos, abandoned after a Ukrainian drone attack, ran aground off Bulgaria’s coast, exposing growing legal and operational risks tied to Russia’s shadow fleet in the Black Sea.
The United States is temporarily licensing Lukoil’s operations outside Russia, blocking all financial flows to Moscow while facilitating the supervised sale of a portfolio valued at $22bn, without disrupting supply for allied countries.

Libya: NOC prepares to award 20 oil blocks amid rising operational and political risks

Libya’s state oil firm NOC plans to launch a licensing round for 20 blocks in early 2026, amid mounting legal, political and financial uncertainties for international investors.
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European sanctions on Russia and refinery outages in the Middle East have sharply reduced global diesel supply, driving up refining margins in key markets.
L’arrêt de la raffinerie de Pancevo, frappée par des sanctions américaines contre ses actionnaires russes, menace les recettes fiscales, l’emploi et la stabilité énergétique de la Serbie.

Oil prices rise amid military escalation and diplomatic deadlock

Oil prices climbed, driven by Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure and the lack of diplomatic progress between Moscow and Washington over the Ukraine conflict.
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Chevron has announced a capital expenditure range of $18 to $19 billion for 2026, focusing on upstream operations in the United States and high-potential international offshore projects.
ExxonMobil is shutting down its oldest ethylene steam cracker in Singapore, reducing local capacity to invest in its integrated Huizhou complex in China, amid regional overcapacity and rising operational costs.

South America strengthens its role in global oil supply through 2030

Brazil, Guyana, Suriname and Argentina are expected to provide a growing share of non-OPEC+ oil supply, backed by massive offshore investments and continued exploration momentum.
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The revocation of US licences limits European companies’ operations in Venezuela, triggering a collapse in crude oil imports and a reconfiguration of bilateral energy flows.
Bourbon has signed an agreement with ExxonMobil for the charter of next-generation Crewboats on Angola’s Block 15, strengthening a strategic cooperation that began over 15 years ago.

Shadow fleet renews tankers to bypass sanctions and operational risks

Faced with tighter legal frameworks and reinforced sanctions, grey fleet operators are turning to 15-year-old VLCCs and scrapping older vessels to secure oil routes to Asia.
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Reconnaissance Energy Africa completed drilling at the Kavango West 1X onshore well in Namibia, where 64 metres of net hydrocarbon pay were detected in the Otavi carbonate section.
CNOOC Limited has started production at the Weizhou 11-4 oilfield adjustment project and its satellite fields, targeting 16,900 barrels per day by 2026.

Shell and Equinor finalise the creation of Adura, largest independent North Sea producer

The Adura joint venture merges Shell and Equinor’s UK offshore assets, becoming the leading independent oil and gas producer in the mature North Sea basin.
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A Delaware court approved the sale of PDV Holding shares to Elliott’s Amber Energy for $5.9bn, a deal still awaiting a U.S. Treasury licence through OFAC.
A new $100mn fund has been launched to support Nigerian oil and gas service companies, as part of a national target to reach 70% local content by 2027.

Sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil redirect oil flows toward Asia

Western measures targeting Rosneft and Lukoil deeply reorganise oil trade, triggering a discreet yet massive shift of Russian export routes to Asia without causing global supply disruption.
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The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission opens bidding for 50 exploration blocks across strategic zones to revitalise upstream investment.
La Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission ouvre la compétition pour 50 blocs d’exploration, répartis sur plusieurs zones stratégiques, afin de relancer les investissements dans l’amont pétrolier.
Hungary increases oil product exports to Serbia to offset the imminent shutdown of the NIS refinery, threatened by US sanctions over its Russian majority ownership.
Faced with falling oil production, Pemex is expanding local refining through Olmeca, aiming to reduce fuel imports and optimise its industrial capacity under fiscal pressure.

Petrobras cuts investment to $109 bn in new five-year plan

Brazil’s state oil company will reduce its capital spending by 2%, hit by falling crude prices, marking a strategic shift under Lula’s presidency.
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TotalEnergies has finalised the sale of its 12.5% stake in Nigeria’s offshore Bonga oilfield for $510mn, boosting Shell and Eni’s positions in the strategic deepwater production site.
Serbia is preparing a budget law amendment to enable the takeover of NIS, a refinery under US sanctions and owned by Russian groups, to avoid an imminent energy shutdown.

Dangote selects Honeywell to expand refinery capacity to 1.4 million barrels/day

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery selects US-based Honeywell to supply technology that will double its crude processing capacity and expand its petrochemical output.
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Iraq secures production by bypassing US sanctions through local payments, energy-for-energy swaps, and targeted suspension of financial flows to Lukoil to protect West Qurna-2 exports.
Restarting Olympic Pipeline’s 16-inch line does not restore full supply to Oregon and Seattle-Tacoma airport, both still exposed to logistical risks and regional price tensions.

India’s Russian oil imports to drop sharply from December

Faced with tightened sanctions from the United States and European Union, Indian refiners are drastically reducing their purchases of Russian crude from December, according to industry sources.
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Serbia’s only refinery, operated by NIS, may be forced to halt production this week, weakened by US sanctions targeting its Russian shareholders.
Glencore's attributable production in Cameroon dropped by 31% over nine months, adding pressure on public revenues as Yaoundé revises its oil and budget forecasts amid field maturity and targeted investment shifts.

Contrarian strategies outperform hedge fund tracking on Brent market

The profitability of speculative positioning strategies on Brent is declining, while contrarian approaches targeting extreme sentiment levels are proving more effective, marking a significant regime shift in oil trading.
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Alaska is set to record its highest oil production increase in 40 years, driven by two key projects that extend the operational life of the TAPS pipeline and reinforce the United States' strategic presence in the Arctic.
TotalEnergies increases its stake to 90% in Nigeria’s offshore block OPL257 following an asset exchange deal with Conoil Producing Limited.

TotalEnergies and Chevron compete for 40% stake in Mopane oil field in Namibia

TotalEnergies and Chevron are seeking to acquire a 40% stake in the Mopane oil field in Namibia, owned by Galp, as part of a strategy to secure new resources in a high-potential offshore basin.
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The reduction of Rosneft’s stake in Kurdistan Pipeline Company shifts control of the main Kurdish oil pipeline and recalibrates the balance between US sanctions, export financing and regional crude governance.
Russian group Lukoil seeks to sell its assets in Bulgaria after the state placed its refinery under special administration, amid heightened US sanctions against the Russian oil industry.

Washington launches new sale of 80 million offshore oil acres

US authorities will hold a large offshore oil block sale in the Gulf of America in March, covering nearly 80 million acres under favourable fiscal terms.
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Sonatrach awarded Chinese company Sinopec a contract to build a new hydrotreatment unit in Arzew, aimed at significantly increasing the country's gasoline production.
The American major could take over part of Lukoil’s non-Russian portfolio, under strict oversight from the U.S. administration, following the collapse of a deal with Swiss trader Gunvor.