South Africa, in the midst of its energy transition, must manage a delicate balance between reducing its dependence on coal and securing its natural gas supply.
The transition to gas is imperative, but faces a number of obstacles, including delays in exploiting local discoveries and the inadequacy of existing infrastructure.
The 2024 Gas Master Plan attempts to address these challenges, but implementation remains hampered by financial and technical obstacles.
The ability to secure natural gas supplies relies on a combination of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and the exploitation of regional gas resources.
However, slow investment in critical infrastructure, such as pipelines and import terminals, and uncertainty over the development of domestic gas projects, accentuate the risk of shortages.
Increased risk of gas shortages and the industry’s response
The announcement that Sasol will stop supplying gas via the Rompco pipeline from 2027 is a wake-up call for the sector.
This decision, coupled with the gradual closure of Eskom’s coal-fired power plants, exacerbates the risk of gas shortages.
Demand for gas-fired power plants is growing, but domestic and regional sources of supply are struggling to meet projected needs.
Commodity Insights’ projections indicate a growing dependence on LNG imports, which could account for up to 87% of gas supply by 2050.
This situation exposes the country to fluctuations in international gas prices and currency risks.
Industry players stress the need for long-term contracts to secure supplies, and for investment in infrastructure to minimize these risks.
Regional outlook and strategic challenges
Regional collaboration offers a potential solution for mitigating gas supply risks.
Recent gas discoveries in Namibia offer an interesting opportunity for South Africa, although the lack of cross-border infrastructure currently complicates any rapid integration.
Discussions on better regional energy integration, combined with optimization of available resources, remain crucial to ensuring sustainable energy security.
South Africa’s energy sector will be able to navigate this uncertain environment with the help of rigorous strategic planning and strengthened regional partnerships.
The main challenge remains to guarantee a reliable and competitive gas supply, essential to support the country’s energy transition and preserve economic stability.
