SUBSCRIBE
PROFILE

Oil rises 1.3% after limited OPEC+ output increase

Crude prices rose following the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to increase production only marginally in November, despite ongoing signs of oversupply.

Share:

Gain full professional access to energynews.pro from 4.90$/month.
Designed for decision-makers, with no long-term commitment.

Over 30,000 articles published since 2021.
150 new market analyses every week to decode global energy trends.

Monthly Digital PRO PASS

Immediate Access
4.90$/month*

No commitment – cancel anytime, activation in 2 minutes.

START NOW — 4.90$/month

*Special launch offer: 1st month at the indicated price, then 14.90 $/month, no long-term commitment.

Annual Digital PRO Pass

Full Annual Access
99$/year*

To access all of energynews.pro without any limits

SUBSCRIBE — 99$/year

*Introductory annual price for year one, automatically renewed at 149.00 $/year from the second year.

Sign up for free to unlock this article

Oil prices rose by more than 1% on October 8, driven by an unexpected decision from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, known as OPEC+, to limit their production increase in November. Benchmark Brent crude rose by 82 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 85 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.58.

A modest increase supports prices

OPEC+ agreed to a production increase of only 137,000 barrels per day for November, despite growing signals of a market surplus. This decision is seen as a minimal compromise aimed at maintaining group cohesion amid differing concerns among its members. “The bare minimum that OPEC+ decided to get away with on Sunday still provided some support,” said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

This modest adjustment comes as several analysts warn of a growing imbalance between supply and demand. According to Goldman Sachs, global crude inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels per day in the last quarter, despite historically strong seasonal demand. The bank forecasts a surplus reaching 2 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026.

U.S. factors and persistent uncertainties

Market participants are also awaiting the weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), expected on October 8. Sources who reviewed figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicate that U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels during the week ending October 3, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell.

Meanwhile, the EIA announced that U.S. oil production is expected to reach a record level in 2025, surpassing previous forecasts. This trend could intensify tensions between excess supply and global demand, particularly if Russian output reductions were to deepen.

Goldman Sachs notes that any unexpected decline in Russian production could pose an upside risk for prices, despite the surplus context. The market therefore continues to evolve in an uncertain environment, influenced by both OPEC+ policy adjustments and U.S. domestic production dynamics.

  • Popular on energynews.pro
Ukraine plans to increase gas imports by 30% after Russian strikes
Spanish solar producers warn of impact from negative electricity prices
JANAF and MOL begin crucial talks on Central European oil transport
Ameresco signs $197mn contract to modernise NRL’s energy infrastructure
Ares Management acquires 49% stake in US energy portfolio from EDPR
Belarus quadruples fuel exports to Russia in September
Rail shipments of Belarusian gasoline to Russia surged in September as Moscow sought to offset fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure.
Denmark strengthens maritime controls at Skagen Strait amid Russian shadow fleet activity
Denmark is intensifying inspections of ships passing through Skagen, a strategic point linking the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, to counter the risks posed by the Russian shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil.
TotalEnergies appoints Nicola Mavilla as global head of exploration
Nicola Mavilla succeeds Kevin McLachlan as TotalEnergies' Director of Exploration, bringing over two decades of international experience in the oil and gas industry.
Sahara Group deploys seven rigs to boost oil output in Nigeria
Sahara Group is making a major investment in Nigeria with seven new drilling rigs, aiming to become the country’s top private oil producer by increasing output to 350,000 barrels per day.
Senegal plans second refinery with 5.5 mn tonnes annual capacity
Senegal aims to double its oil refining capacity with a project estimated between $2bn and $5bn, as domestic demand exceeds current output.
Chevron gradually restarts El Segundo refinery after major fire
Chevron is working to restart several units at its El Segundo refinery in California after a fire broke out in a jet fuel production unit, temporarily disrupting regional fuel supplies.
Ethiopia launches $2.5bn refinery to reduce fuel import dependency
Ethiopia has begun construction of its first crude oil refinery in Gode, a $2.5bn project awarded to GCL, aimed at strengthening the country’s energy security amid ongoing reliance on fuel imports.
Opec+ raises production by 137,000 barrels per day in November
Opec+ slightly adjusts its quotas for November, continuing its market share recovery strategy amid stagnant global demand and a pressured market.
Beijing transfers up to $8.4bn to Iran through parallel oil network
China has established a clandestine oil-for-projects barter system to circumvent US sanctions and support Iran’s embargoed economy, according to an exclusive Wall Street Journal investigation.
TotalEnergies exits three mature fields in Norway’s Ekofisk area
TotalEnergies EP Norge signed two agreements to divest its non-operated interests in three inactive Norwegian fields, pending an investment decision expected in 2025.
US Supreme Court to rule on ExxonMobil case over 1960 Cuban asset seizures
The US Supreme Court will hear ExxonMobil’s appeal for compensation from Cuban state-owned firms over nationalised oil assets, reviving enforcement of the Helms-Burton Act.
Major fire contained at Chevron’s El Segundo refinery, investigation underway
A major fire has been extinguished at Chevron’s main refinery on the US West Coast. The cause of the incident remains unknown, and an investigation has been launched to determine its origin.
OPEC+ prepares new production hike amid rift between Riyadh and Moscow
Eight OPEC+ countries are set to increase oil output from November, as Saudi Arabia and Russia debate the scale of the hike amid rising competition for market share.
China could supply gasoline to Russia if Moscow removes import duties
The potential removal by Moscow of duties on Chinese gasoline revives export prospects and could tighten regional supply, while Singapore and South Korea remain on the sidelines.
Putin denounces “piracy” after tanker seized off French coast
Vladimir Putin responded to the interception of a tanker suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet, calling the French operation “piracy” and denying any direct Russian involvement.
Russian oil tanker Boracay resumes voyage after being seized by France
After being intercepted by the French navy, the Boracay oil tanker, linked to Russia's shadow fleet, left Saint-Nazaire with its oil cargo, reigniting tensions over Moscow’s circumvention of European sanctions.
Russian crude exports hit 18-month high despite sanctions pressure
Russian seaborne crude shipments surged in September to their highest level since April 2024, despite G7 sanctions and repeated drone strikes on refinery infrastructure.
Moscow rules out diesel export ban for producers
Russia’s Energy Ministry stated it is not considering blocking diesel exports from producers, despite increasing pressure on domestic fuel supply.
TotalEnergies sells Norwegian oil assets to Vår Energi to reduce debt
TotalEnergies has reached a deal to sell mature offshore oil fields in the North Sea to Vår Energi as part of a $3.5bn divestment plan aimed at easing its rising debt.
Russia extends ban on gasoline and diesel exports until 2025
The Russian government has extended the ban on gasoline and diesel exports, including fuels traded on the exchange, to preserve domestic market stability through the end of next year.