Oil rises 1.3% after limited OPEC+ output increase

Crude prices rose following the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to increase production only marginally in November, despite ongoing signs of oversupply.

Share:

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25£/month*

*billed annually at 99£/year for the first year then 149,00£/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2£/month*
then 14.90£ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

Oil prices rose by more than 1% on October 8, driven by an unexpected decision from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, known as OPEC+, to limit their production increase in November. Benchmark Brent crude rose by 82 cents, or 1.3%, to $66.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 85 cents, or 1.4%, to $62.58.

A modest increase supports prices

OPEC+ agreed to a production increase of only 137,000 barrels per day for November, despite growing signals of a market surplus. This decision is seen as a minimal compromise aimed at maintaining group cohesion amid differing concerns among its members. “The bare minimum that OPEC+ decided to get away with on Sunday still provided some support,” said PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga.

This modest adjustment comes as several analysts warn of a growing imbalance between supply and demand. According to Goldman Sachs, global crude inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels per day in the last quarter, despite historically strong seasonal demand. The bank forecasts a surplus reaching 2 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026.

U.S. factors and persistent uncertainties

Market participants are also awaiting the weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), expected on October 8. Sources who reviewed figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicate that U.S. crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels during the week ending October 3, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell.

Meanwhile, the EIA announced that U.S. oil production is expected to reach a record level in 2025, surpassing previous forecasts. This trend could intensify tensions between excess supply and global demand, particularly if Russian output reductions were to deepen.

Goldman Sachs notes that any unexpected decline in Russian production could pose an upside risk for prices, despite the surplus context. The market therefore continues to evolve in an uncertain environment, influenced by both OPEC+ policy adjustments and U.S. domestic production dynamics.

Kazakhstan is reviewing Lukoil's stakes in major oil projects after the Russian group announced plans to divest its international assets following new US sanctions.
The Mexican state-owned company reduced its crude extraction by 6.7% while boosting its refining activity by 4.8%, and narrowed its financial losses compared to the previous year.
The new US licence granted to Chevron significantly alters financial flows between Venezuela and the United States, affecting the local currency, oil revenues and the country's economic balance.
Three Crown Petroleum reports a steady initial flow rate of 752 barrels of oil equivalent per day from its Irvine 1NH well in the Powder River Basin, marking a key step in its horizontal drilling programme in the Niobrara.
Cenovus Energy adjusts its MEG Energy acquisition offer to $30 per share and signs a voting support agreement with Strathcona Resources, while selling assets worth up to CAD150mn.
Iraq is negotiating a potential revision of its OPEC production limit while maintaining exports at around 3.6 million barrels per day despite significantly higher capacity.
Le Premier ministre hongrois se rendra à Washington pour discuter avec Donald Trump des sanctions américaines contre le pétrole russe, dans un contexte de guerre en Ukraine et de dépendance persistante de la Hongrie aux hydrocarbures russes.
Nigerian tycoon Aliko Dangote plans to expand his refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, reshaping regional energy dynamics through an unmatched private-sector project in Africa.
COOEC has signed a $4bn EPC contract with QatarEnergy to develop the offshore Bul Hanine oil field, marking the largest order ever secured by a Chinese company in the Gulf.
The group terminates commitments for the Odin and Hild rigs in Mexico, initially scheduled through November 2025 and March 2026, due to sanctions affecting an involved counterparty, while reaffirming compliance with applicable international frameworks.
Shell has filed an appeal against the cancellation of its environmental authorisation for Block 5/6/7 off the South African coast, aiming to continue exploration in a geologically strategic offshore zone.
The Greek government has selected a consortium led by Chevron to explore hydrocarbons in four maritime zones in the Ionian Sea and south of Crete, with geophysical surveys scheduled to begin in 2026.
Algerian company Sonatrach has resumed exploration activities in Libya's Ghadames Basin, halted since 2014, as part of a strategic revival of the country's oil sector.
The Indian refiner segments campaigns, strengthens documentary traceability and adjusts contracts to secure certified shipments to the European Union, while redirecting ineligible volumes to Africa and the Americas based on market conditions.
US authorities have authorised a unit at Talen Energy’s Wagner plant in Maryland to operate beyond regulatory limits until the end of 2025 to strengthen grid reliability.
Gran Tierra Energy has signed a crude oil sale agreement with a $200mn prepayment and amended its Colombian credit facility to improve financial flexibility.
Operations at BP’s 440,000 barrel-per-day Whiting refinery have resumed following a temporary shutdown caused by a power outage and a minor fire incident.
The European Union targets a trading subsidiary and a refinery linked to China National Petroleum Corporation, tightening access to financial and insurance services without disrupting pipeline deliveries, with reallocations expected in settlements, insurance, and logistics. —
Viktor Orban says he is working to bypass recent US sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, underscoring Hungary’s continued reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.
Traceability requirements from the EU (European Union) on fuel origin are reshaping Indian refined flows, with a shift toward Africa and Brazil supported by local premiums and a decline in Russian exports.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25£/month*

*billed annually at 99£/year for the first year then 149,00£/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2£/month*
then 14.90£ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.