Oil Prices Rise

Oil prices are rising. They are driven by fears of a recession and supply concerns.

Share:

Oil prices were rising more sharply on Monday as supply concerns returned to the forefront, although recession worries still loom.

Around 15:00 GMT (17:00 in Paris), the barrel of Brent North Sea for delivery in November took 1.84% to 94.54 dollars.

A barrel of U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for October delivery was up 1.80% to $88.35.

“Any lingering doubts about Russia’s willingness to use energy as a weapon to pressure its opponents faded last week,” commented Stephen Brennock, an analyst at PVM Energy.

Russian gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline are still suspended, fuelling fears of winter shortages. On Wednesday, Russia warned that it would no longer deliver oil or gas to countries that would cap the prices of hydrocarbons sold by Moscow, at a time when the West is working on such a measure.

“We see no reason to doubt (Vladimir) Putin on this point,” says Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at Seb.

“The market is poised for a tidal wave as Russian supply could fall sharply.”

The analyst points out that Russia is the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels and that sanctions could thus lead to “serious supply losses”. “The explosion of natural gas prices around the world is a good example of what can happen to oil,” he continues.

Earlier last week, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (Opec+) agreed to reduce their total production volume by 100,000 barrels per day.

A symbolic reduction, which “suggests that the producer group is willing to defend the high price environment,” Brennock says.

The price increase remains very limited, in a context of “aggressive monetary tightening by the main central banks and new confinements due to Covid in China, the largest importer,” said John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud.

Recession fears are still looming, compounding the difficulties in oil demand.

In Germany, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to fall by 0.3% in 2023 under the blow of massive inflation, and the lack of Russian gas, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, according to a study by the IFO institute published Monday.

On Sunday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also said that there was “a risk” of a recession in the United States because of the measures taken to slow inflation, which will necessarily weigh on economic activity, but that it is possible to escape.

Serbia has secured a new 30-day reprieve from the application of US sanctions targeting NIS, operator of the country’s only refinery, which is majority owned by Gazprom.
OMS Energy Technologies Inc. reports solid financial results for 2025, driven by marked revenue growth, improved gross margin and a reinforced cash position in a shifting market.
Five employees injured in an explosion at the Pascagoula refinery are suing Chevron for negligence, seeking significant compensation and alleging major breaches of safety regulations.
South Korea and Japan are reinforcing coordination on strategic stocks and oil logistics as growing dependence on Gulf imports and geopolitical tensions affect the Asian market.
Two separate strikes in the Vaca Muerta region threaten to disrupt oil and gas production after historic records, with unions protesting layoffs and unpaid wages in a rapidly expanding sector.
US refiner Phillips 66 posted quarterly earnings above expectations, driven by high utilisation rates and lower maintenance costs across its facilities.
The advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice increases legal exposure for states and companies involved in the licensing or expansion of oil and gas projects, according to several international law experts.
US oil company Chevron has received new approval from American authorities to relaunch its operations in Venezuela, halted since May following the revocation of its licence under the Trump administration.
Kazakhstan adopts an ambitious roadmap to develop its refining and petrochemical industry, targeting 30% exports and $5bn in investments by 2040.
Turkey has officially submitted to Iraq a draft agreement aimed at renewing and expanding their energy cooperation, now including oil, natural gas, petrochemicals and electricity in a context of intensified negotiations.
The Dangote refinery complex in Nigeria is planning a scheduled forty-day shutdown to replace the catalyst and repair the reactor of its gasoline production unit, starting in early December.
Indonesia Energy plans to drill two new wells on the Kruh block in Indonesia before the end of 2025, following a 60% increase in proven reserves thanks to recent seismic campaigns.
CanAsia Energy Corp. confirms it has submitted a bid for oil and gas exploration and production in Thailand, reinforcing its international strategy within a consortium and targeting a block in the 25th onshore round.
The decrease in US commercial crude oil stocks exceeds expectations, driven by a sharp increase in exports and higher refinery activity, while domestic production shows a slight decline.
Pacific Petroleum and VCP Operating finalise the $9.65mn acquisition of oil assets in Wyoming, backed by a consortium of Japanese institutional investors and a technology innovation programme focused on real-world asset tokenisation.
Repsol's net profit fell to €603mn in the first half, impacted by oil market volatility and a massive power outage that disrupted its activities in Spain and Portugal.
A USD 1.1 billion refinery project in Ndola, signed with Fujian Xiang Xin Corporation, aims to meet Zambia's domestic demand and potentially support regional exports.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OIES) confirmed its Brent price forecast at 69 USD/b in 2025 and 67 USD/b in 2026, while adjusting its 2025 surplus forecast to 280,000 barrels per day.
PermRock Royalty Trust has declared a monthly distribution of 395,288.31 USD, or 0.032491 USD per trust unit, payable on August 14, 2025, based on production revenues from May 2025.
Portuguese group Galp Energia announced an adjusted net profit of €373 million for Q2 2025, a 25% increase from the previous year, driven by higher hydrocarbon production in Brazil.