Natural Gas Prices Expected to Rise by 34% This Winter, According to US EIA

The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a 34% increase in natural gas prices this winter, despite above-average stock levels and generally colder temperatures.

Share:

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

Despite historically high levels of U.S. natural gas stocks, the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), a government entity, announces a significant increase in prices for the 2024-2025 winter period. According to its forecasts, the average price at the Henry Hub will reach $2.99/MMBtu between December and March, compared to $2.23/MMBtu over the same period last year, representing a 34% increase.

The EIA emphasizes that this rise occurs in a context of stable production and colder-than-normal weather conditions in December, even though temperatures in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to be milder. End-of-winter projections estimate a total storage level of 1.92 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 2% above the five-year average.

Gas Inventories and Withdrawal Forecasts

The U.S. entered the winter season with stocks of 3.92 Tcf, 6% above the 2019-2023 average. However, the EIA predicts significant withdrawals in December, reaching 590 billion cubic feet (Bcf), 34% more than the five-year average for that month. This decrease is attributed to increased demand due to colder temperatures and limited production.

Price and Production Trends

The agency revised upward its forecasts for natural gas prices in the first quarter of 2025, estimating an average of $2.95/MMBtu, compared to $2.45/MMBtu at the end of 2024. For the whole of 2025, prices are expected to stabilize around $2.95/MMBtu, supported by rising demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and a production recovery.

Indeed, the EIA anticipates an increase in dry gas production, expected to reach 103 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025, driven by LNG export projects in the Permian and Eagle Ford regions, as well as expanded production in the Haynesville Basin.

LNG Exports and Long-Term Prospects

The EIA anticipates a 15% increase in LNG exports in 2025, reaching 14 Bcf/d. This growth will be supported by new projects, including those by Venture Global at Plaquemines LNG and Cheniere Energy at Corpus Christi. These strategic developments aim to meet growing international demand, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Impact on Electricity Consumption

In parallel, electricity demand will increase by 2% this winter, according to the EIA, driven by an estimated 6% rise in heating degree days. The residential and commercial sectors are expected to consume 3% and 2% more electricity, respectively, compared to last winter, supported by greater use of heating systems.

This increase in consumption is also reflected in wholesale electricity prices. In some regions, such as ISO-New England’s internal hub, price forecasts have been raised by 16%, reaching $76.32/MWh in the first quarter of 2025.

Caracas suspended its energy agreements with Trinidad and Tobago, citing a conflict of interest linked to the foreign policy of the new Trinidadian government, jeopardising several major cross-border gas projects.
TotalEnergies is asking Mozambique for a licence extension and financial compensation to restart its $20 billion gas project suspended since 2021 following an armed attack.
An Italian appeal court has approved the extradition to Germany of a former Ukrainian commander suspected of coordinating the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, a decision now challenged in cassation.
QatarEnergy has acquired a 40% stake in the North Rafah offshore exploration block, located off Egypt’s Mediterranean coast, strengthening its presence in the region in partnership with Italian group Eni.
The U.S. Department of Energy has given final approval to the CP2 LNG project, authorising liquefied natural gas exports to countries without free trade agreements.
LNG Energy Group finalised a court-approved reorganisation agreement in Colombia and settled a major debt through asset transfer, while continuing its operational and financial recovery plan.
Daniel Chapo is visiting the United States to encourage ExxonMobil to commit to a major investment in Rovuma LNG, a strategic gas project for Mozambique as TotalEnergies resumes its suspended operations.
Baker Hughes will expand its coiled tubing drilling fleet from four to ten units in Saudi Arabia’s gas fields under a multi-year agreement with Aramco, including operational management and underbalanced drilling services.
Tokyo Gas commits to one million tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas under the Alaska LNG project, boosting Glenfarne’s commercial momentum after five agreements signed in seven months.
Indonesia Energy Corporation partners with Aquila Energia to develop two pilot projects combining solar and natural gas to power data centres in Brazil, under a non-binding framework supported by both governments.
A former Ukrainian soldier accused of taking part in the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline is at the centre of a contested extradition process between Italy and Germany, revived by a ruling from Italy’s Court of Cassation.
Venezuela demands full financial compensation for any gas exports from the offshore Dragon field, reactivated following U.S. authorisation granted to Trinidad and Tobago.
Vistra Corp. finalises the purchase of seven natural gas power plants totalling 2.6 gigawatts, strengthening its presence in key US electricity markets.
Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure has finalised the sale of its non-core Sylvan Lake site to Parallax Energy Operating for $5.5mn, with limited impact on its 2025 results.
U.S. gas deliveries to Mexico reached 7.5 billion cubic feet per day in May, driven by rising demand in the power sector and new cross-border interconnections.
The Algerian national company has restarted a key liquefaction unit in Skikda, strengthening its export capacity amid massive investment in the gas sector.
Doha and Washington warn Brussels about the consequences of EU sustainability requirements on liquefied natural gas exports, as the continent’s energy security remains under pressure.
The Volans-1X exploration well revealed a 26-metre productive zone in the Orange Basin, marking another hydrocarbon find for Azule Energy partners in 2025.
Faced with the absence of commercially viable results on the Guercif permit, Predator Oil & Gas has initiated a sale process while continuing technical evaluation of the gas potential.
According to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, a stable gas price of $6/MMBtu would boost global demand by 60 billion m³ in the short term and 120 billion m³ by 2035, mainly driven by Asia.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.