popular articles

Nagorno-Karabakh: a Primarily Energetic Conflict?

Nagorno-Karabakh is once again in the grip of war. This disputed region is the scene of violent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
nagorno-karabakh conflict

Please share:

Nagorno-Karabakh is once again in the grip of war. This disputed region is the scene of violent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. According to official figures, more than 800 people lost their lives on the Armenian side, mainly soldiers. On the Azerbaijani side, the government has so far refused to publish any casualty figures.

Nagorno-Karaback: the region of discord

Historically, this conflict dates back to Stalin’s decision in the early 1920s to include Armenian minorities in Azerbaijani territory. The consequence of this choice was to fuel national hatreds once the Soviet Union had disappeared. In 1994, the Armenian minority in Nagorno-Karabakh expelled the Baku authorities with the support of Yerevan. Since then, the two countries have regularly engaged in armed clashes without finding a definitive solution to the conflict.

The war that began on September 27 nevertheless marked an important turning point in the history of the conflict. Russia, the traditional mediator, is currently unable to impose a lasting ceasefire. The same applies to the Minsk Group, made up of Russia, the United States and France. This turnaround can be explained by the new role Turkey is playing in the region.

Supported by Baku, this is the first time the latter has become directly involved in the conflict. Ankara supplies its ally with military equipment and provides fighting units from Syria. This direct commitment is largely explained by energy considerations.

This is a major change, as in previous conflicts, energy was only considered as a consequence of the conflict. Armed clashes could threaten energy supplies in the region. Today, however, energy rivalries are no longer a consequence, but in fact the main cause of conflict. Indeed, we cannot understand Turkey’s involvement and Russia’s weakening without mentioning the changing energy balance of power.

Nagorno-Karabakh

Energy at the heart of developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

The changing nature of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is justified by a major shift in the region’s energy balance. In recent years, Azerbaijan has established itself as a key player in gas supplies to Turkey. The start-up of the Shah Deniz II gas project in 2018 has doubled Azerbaijan’s exports. Since last year, the country has supplied more than 9 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to Turkey.

This year, Baku even became Ankara’s leading gas supplier, ahead of Moscow. This development is all the more important as it is accompanied by a weakening of Russia’s position on the transit issue. The inauguration of the TANAP trans-Anatolian pipeline in 2017 has enabled Azerbaijan to bypass Russia as a transit country. The same applies to the country’s oil exports.

By passing through Georgia, this pipeline gives the Ankara-Baku axis greater room for maneuver vis-à-vis Moscow. In this context, Turkish military support for Azerbaijan is easy to understand. Sometimes passing just a few kilometers from the Armenian border, TANAP is vulnerable to attacks from Yerevan. Ankara is therefore turning the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict into a real energy security issue for the country.

Energy at the heart of rivalries between Moscow and Ankara

In addition to security of supply, the Turkish intervention can also be interpreted in terms of Russian-Turkish relations. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict comes just a few months before the renegotiation of gas contracts with Gazprom. For Ankara, this is a key factor in lowering the price of gas for Turkish consumers. In December 2021, more than 8 bcm will be renegotiated with the Russian company.

However, the contracts signed with Gazprom were signed in the 80s and 90s under radically different conditions than today. Being long-term and indexed to the price of oil, these contracts no longer correspond to market prices. It is now estimated that Turkey pays 20% more for gas from Russia than Europe. Under these conditions, Ankara would like to renegotiate contracts with Russia that are more in line with spot market prices.

Turkey has therefore embarked on a policy of diversifying its supplies, notably towards Azerbaijan and LNG. Gazprom has seen its market share plummet from 50% in 2017 to 30% today. In fact, relations with Baku have become a key element in Ankara’s game with Moscow. Any weakening of Azerbaijan would therefore mean a weakening of Turkey’s position at the negotiating table.

This support is all the more important as Turkey remains dependent on gas imports, at least in the short term. The giant deposit discovered in the Black Sea will not be operational until 2023 at the earliest. As a result, Azerbaijan will remain a key ally until the field comes on stream. Nevertheless, this discovery in the Black Sea considerably strengthens Ankara’s position in the forthcoming negotiations with Moscow.

turkstream

Behind the conflict, the ambition of a Turkish gas hub

One of the key issues in the renegotiation of Russian-Turkish gas contracts will be to put an end to destination clauses. These clauses prohibit the buyer from reselling unused gas on other markets. This ban is particularly problematic for Ankara, which aims to become a veritable gas hub in the region.

To achieve this goal, Turkey can count on a number of assets. Firstly, it is a secure transit country for Russian gas to Europe. Inaugurated at the end of 2019, TurkStream can supply the continent with up to 31.5 bcm of gas each year. For the moment, this pipeline is only connected to Europe via Bulgaria, but an extension to Greece is planned.

This would give TurkStream the capacity to supply the countries of Southern and Eastern Europe. This route is all the more important for Moscow as its North Stream 2 project now appears compromised. Moreover, transit through Ukraine and Poland is made difficult by geopolitical tensions. Turkey therefore represents an essential supply route for Moscow, giving Ankara considerable influence in the future.

Turkey is also involved in the TAP project, the trans-Adriatic gas pipeline linking Azerbaijan to Italy. In fact, it’s a new gas pipeline scheduled to be operational next month, linked to the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP). Ankara’s aim here is to connect the European market with the producer countries of Central Asia, primarily Turkmenistan. With Nagorno-Karabakh just around the corner, Turkey cannot afford to abandon its Azerbaijani ally.

Moreover, the ambition to be a hub explains Ankara’s head-on opposition to the East Med project linking Israel to Greece. The aim of the project is to supply gas from the Mediterranean, and possibly later from the Middle East, bypassing Turkey. Libya, whose territorial waters straddle the pipeline, is a key country for Ankara. As in Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkish intervention in Libya is largely explained by energy issues.

The ambition to be a gas hub between Asia and Europe therefore largely determines Turkish policy in its regional environment. Located close to TANAP, Nagorno-Karabakh has thus become a major issue for the country. As a result, energy is no longer just a consequence, but the main cause of the current conflict.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Recently published in

During President Ilham Aliyev's official visit to China, six agreements were signed between Azerbaijan and Chinese partners to develop green energy projects, including solar power plants, an offshore wind farm, and energy storage systems.
Narendra Modi is on an official visit to Saudi Arabia to consolidate energy and trade ties between India and Riyadh, a key strategic supplier of crude oil to New Delhi.
Narendra Modi is on an official visit to Saudi Arabia to consolidate energy and trade ties between India and Riyadh, a key strategic supplier of crude oil to New Delhi.
The United States' dominance in oil and gas production may stagnate and even decline in the coming decades, according to a report from Wood Mackenzie. Technological challenges and the rise of low-carbon energies are key factors in this shift.
The United States' dominance in oil and gas production may stagnate and even decline in the coming decades, according to a report from Wood Mackenzie. Technological challenges and the rise of low-carbon energies are key factors in this shift.
Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar met his Nigerien counterpart in Niamey on April 16, 2025, to discuss economic cooperation and security amidst ongoing political tensions and terrorist threats.
Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar met his Nigerien counterpart in Niamey on April 16, 2025, to discuss economic cooperation and security amidst ongoing political tensions and terrorist threats.
As nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States continue, European countries find themselves sidelined, despite their central role in the 2015 agreement.
The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, emphasised the urgency of reaching a deal on Iran's nuclear programme before crucial negotiations scheduled this weekend in Rome.
The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, emphasised the urgency of reaching a deal on Iran's nuclear programme before crucial negotiations scheduled this weekend in Rome.
The Greek government formalises maritime zone planning to optimise resource exploitation, particularly in the energy sector, under European and international legal frameworks.
The Greek government formalises maritime zone planning to optimise resource exploitation, particularly in the energy sector, under European and international legal frameworks.
Moscow refuses to specify the expiry date of the Russia-Ukraine energy strike moratorium, despite ongoing tensions and US diplomatic involvement.
Moscow refuses to specify the expiry date of the Russia-Ukraine energy strike moratorium, despite ongoing tensions and US diplomatic involvement.
The Kremlin has confirmed its willingness to actively support a diplomatic resolution on Iran’s nuclear file, ahead of a new round of talks between Tehran and Washington scheduled for this Saturday.
Abbas Araghchi will meet Sergey Lavrov in Russia before resuming nuclear discussions with the United States, scheduled for 19 April in Muscat under Omani mediation.
Abbas Araghchi will meet Sergey Lavrov in Russia before resuming nuclear discussions with the United States, scheduled for 19 April in Muscat under Omani mediation.
The US decision halts Trinidad and Tobago’s gas ambitions tied to the offshore Dragon field, undermining agreements with Caracas and several major energy companies.
The US decision halts Trinidad and Tobago’s gas ambitions tied to the offshore Dragon field, undermining agreements with Caracas and several major energy companies.
As Russia ratifies a 20-year civil nuclear agreement with Iran, the United States reopens indirect talks in Oman. Tehran demands the lifting of sanctions, while 275 kg of uranium enriched to 60% raises concerns.
As Russia ratifies a 20-year civil nuclear agreement with Iran, the United States reopens indirect talks in Oman. Tehran demands the lifting of sanctions, while 275 kg of uranium enriched to 60% raises concerns.
Russia’s State Duma officially approves a major energy partnership with Iran, paving the way for enhanced cooperation in the oil, natural gas, and civil nuclear sectors, despite ongoing Western sanctions.
The Venezuelan army says it will respond forcefully to any threat following allegations of a plot targeting ExxonMobil's infrastructure in contested waters off Guyana.
The Venezuelan army says it will respond forcefully to any threat following allegations of a plot targeting ExxonMobil's infrastructure in contested waters off Guyana.
Adani, via its subsidiary Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd., has launched operations at the Colombo West International Terminal, strengthening the strategic role of Colombo Port in South Asia.
Adani, via its subsidiary Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd., has launched operations at the Colombo West International Terminal, strengthening the strategic role of Colombo Port in South Asia.
The French and British governments denounce ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, despite ceasefire discussions backed by the United States.
The French and British governments denounce ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, despite ceasefire discussions backed by the United States.
New Delhi signed new defence and energy agreements with Colombo, consolidating its strategic influence on the island as China continues expanding its investments.
European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen is in Baku to reaffirm energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, focusing on the expansion of the gas corridor and regional green energy projects.
European Commissioner Dan Jørgensen is in Baku to reaffirm energy cooperation with Azerbaijan, focusing on the expansion of the gas corridor and regional green energy projects.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ruled out any possibility of reactivating the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, shut down since 2022, despite discussions mentioned by Russia and growing pressure on energy supply.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ruled out any possibility of reactivating the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, shut down since 2022, despite discussions mentioned by Russia and growing pressure on energy supply.
The United States has sanctioned a Chinese refinery processing Iranian crude, increasing pressure on Tehran and raising concerns over global oil market stability.
The United States has sanctioned a Chinese refinery processing Iranian crude, increasing pressure on Tehran and raising concerns over global oil market stability.
The Algerian energy group Sonelgaz is offering its technical expertise to Burkina Faso to strengthen its electrical infrastructure, illustrating Algeria's strategic intention to consolidate its presence in sub-Saharan Africa’s energy markets.
Washington again delays the enforcement of sanctions against NIS, the Serbian energy company controlled by Gazprom, extending the status quo until the end of April according to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
Washington again delays the enforcement of sanctions against NIS, the Serbian energy company controlled by Gazprom, extending the status quo until the end of April according to Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.
The United States has strengthened its support for Guyana amid Venezuela’s claims over the Essequibo, warning Caracas of a military response in case of aggression targeting the territory or American oil interests.
The United States has strengthened its support for Guyana amid Venezuela’s claims over the Essequibo, warning Caracas of a military response in case of aggression targeting the territory or American oil interests.
No attacks on energy installations have been reported since a partial agreement announced by the United States, marking a pause in hostilities targeting critical infrastructure.
No attacks on energy installations have been reported since a partial agreement announced by the United States, marking a pause in hostilities targeting critical infrastructure.

Advertising