With the death of Emir Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah on December 16 and the ascension of Sheikh Mishal al-Sabah, Kuwait is preparing for a period of continuity in its energy sector. Bader al-Saif, assistant professor of history at Kuwait University, points out that the country’s orderly successions don’t usually lead to major changes in energy policy, traditionally left in the hands of technocrats.
Oil Production Challenges and Targets
Kuwait, OPEC’s fourth largest oil producer, aims to increase its crude oil production capacity to 4 million barrels per day by 2035 and 2 billion cubic feet per day of non-associated gas by 2040. These increases will come from its domestic fields as well as from the Neutral Zone shared with Saudi Arabia. However, the country has to overcome stagnant political challenges, a lack of foreign investment and aging oil fields.
Frequent cabinet reshuffles and changes of government have left little time for officials to implement policies aimed at developing the country’s oil and gas fields. The appointment of a new Emir could lead to the designation of a new Crown Prince, with current Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed al-Sabah as a potential successor.
Upstream Challenges and Production Capacity
Kuwait’s upstream sector requires significant investment, particularly for the Burgan oil field, which is facing a natural decline. The Neutral Zone offers a potential source of increased capacity, but operational challenges and political reshuffles have hampered the serious development of shared fields.
Kuwait, where oil accounts for 90% of government revenues, is in danger of being left behind by its regional peers when it comes to energy transition. At the COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai, Kuwait abstained from supporting a critical text calling for the phasing out of fossil fuels. Kuwait Petroleum Corp. has outlined plans to develop technologies such as carbon capture and storage, but without specific plans or timetables.
Kuwait, under the leadership of its new emir, must navigate a complex energy landscape, balancing oil production needs with the imperatives of energy transition. The country’s ability to adapt and innovate in this crucial sector will determine its position in the global energy economy.
