Connection

popular articles

Europe struggles to meet its rare earth targets
BP discovers new oil field 190 km off the coast of Louisiana
PetroChina reaches new milestone in 2024 with net profit of $22.7 billion
Coolant leak at Olkiluoto 3 reactor in Finland
Macron Announces Construction of Eight New Nuclear Reactors

IEA revises world oil demand downwards for 2024

The IEA cuts its oil demand forecast for 2024 due to low deliveries and reduced consumption, with implications for OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers.
Prévisions demande pétrole 2024
  • [favorite_button]

Please share:

The IEA has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) for 2024, from 1.3 million b/d previously, due to “exceptionally low” first-quarter deliveries in OECD countries and reduced consumption by vehicles. For 2025, growth is estimated at 1.1 million b/d.

Impact on refining capacity

The refinery throughput growth estimate for 2024 has also been revised downwards, to 1 million b/d from 1.2 million b/d in the previous report. This revision is due in part to production cutbacks in Russia following drone attacks, unplanned outages in Europe, and moderate economic activity in China. For 2025, the IEA forecasts an increase in refining capacity of 830,000 b/d, reaching 84.2 million b/d.

Increase in overall production forecast

The IEA forecasts that global oil production will increase by 770,000 b/d this year, in line with last month’s report. By 2025, growth is expected to double to 1.6 million b/d, led by non-OPEC+ producing countries, with production up by 1.4 million b/d. The USA, Brazil, Guyana and Canada, all non-OPEC+ members, are expected to add 1.2 million b/d in 2024 and 1 million b/d in 2025.

Lower demand for OPEC+ oil

Following production increases by non-OPEC+ countries, the IEA has increased its forecast for lower demand for OPEC+ crude oil this year to 500,000 b/d, forecasting “demand” for OPEC+ crude at 41.8 million b/d. A further decline of 300,000 b/d is expected in 2025, to 41.5 million b/d.

Diverging outlooks on demand

Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights are slightly more optimistic than the IEA on demand, with a forecast for liquids demand growth of 1.7 million b/d in 2024, slowing to 1.2 million b/d in 2025. In its monthly oil market report of April 11, OPEC maintains its forecast for global demand growth of 2.2 million b/d in 2024, slowing to 1.8 million b/d in 2025.

Adjustments to IEA forecasts suggest a complex 2024 for the global oil market, potentially impacting production and consumption. The discrepancies between the main forecasting agencies reflect ongoing uncertainty in the energy sector.

Register free of charge for uninterrupted access.

Publicite

Latest news

Craig Steinke appointed CEO of BluEnergies following James Deckelman’s departure
Siemens Energy raises annual outlook after 52% surge in orders
Enel posts €2bn net profit rise despite falling electricity prices
Six years sought in Sweden over Think Pink case and its 200,000 tonnes of waste
Elcogen signs agreement with Casale to integrate green hydrogen into ammonia

Recently published in

US shale oil drilling costs to rise 4.5% in 2025

US oil operators will face moderate drilling cost increases in 2025, driven by tariffs, despite price drops in several key service segments.
Craig Steinke appointed CEO of BluEnergies following James Deckelman’s departure
BluEnergies Ltd. has announced the immediate appointment of Craig Steinke as Chief Executive Officer, succeeding James Deckelman, who is stepping down for personal reasons.
en_1140290951540-4
Craig Steinke appointed CEO of BluEnergies following James Deckelman’s departure
BluEnergies Ltd. has announced the immediate appointment of Craig Steinke as Chief Executive Officer, succeeding James Deckelman, who is stepping down for personal reasons.
en_1140290951540-4
US-China tariff war disrupts China’s petrochemical market
The increase in tariffs between the United States and China is radically reshaping China's petrochemical supply flows, threatening to raise costs and intensify supply challenges in an already strained strategic sector.
en_1140290943540-4
US-China tariff war disrupts China’s petrochemical market
The increase in tariffs between the United States and China is radically reshaping China's petrochemical supply flows, threatening to raise costs and intensify supply challenges in an already strained strategic sector.
en_1140290943540-4
Washington targets Chinese buyers of Iranian crude with new sanctions
The United States imposes sanctions on several Chinese entities involved in purchasing and transporting Iranian oil, disrupting a petroleum supply chain worth several hundred million dollars.
en_1140290953540-4
Washington targets Chinese buyers of Iranian crude with new sanctions
The United States imposes sanctions on several Chinese entities involved in purchasing and transporting Iranian oil, disrupting a petroleum supply chain worth several hundred million dollars.
en_1140290953540-4

Oil rises over 3% following trade agreement between Washington and London

Brent and WTI prices surged after the announcement of a trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom, raising expectations of a rebound in global crude demand.
US crude oil inventories fall by 2 million barrels
US commercial crude oil reserves dropped more than expected in early May, supported by increased refinery activity, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration.
en_1140290949540-3
US crude oil inventories fall by 2 million barrels
US commercial crude oil reserves dropped more than expected in early May, supported by increased refinery activity, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration.
en_1140290949540-3
Opec+ weighs on crude market with production increase in June
Oil prices are trending downward under the combined pressure of increased output from Opec+ members and the potential for a nuclear deal between Iran and the United States.
en_1140290943540-3
Opec+ weighs on crude market with production increase in June
Oil prices are trending downward under the combined pressure of increased output from Opec+ members and the potential for a nuclear deal between Iran and the United States.
en_1140290943540-3
Venezuela to take over Chevron oil fields before May 27
The Venezuelan government confirmed it will continue operating Chevron’s oil fields after the US-imposed withdrawal of the American company.
en_1140290943540-2
Venezuela to take over Chevron oil fields before May 27
The Venezuelan government confirmed it will continue operating Chevron’s oil fields after the US-imposed withdrawal of the American company.
en_1140290943540-2

Shell considers BP takeover as group valuation declines

BP rises on the London Stock Exchange amid acquisition rumours by Shell, which may wait for a further drop in oil prices before taking action.
Ecuador awards Sinopec a $105mn oil drilling contract in the Amazon
Petroecuador signed an agreement with Sinopec to drill new wells in the northeastern Amazon, aiming to increase output by 12,000 barrels per day.
en_1140290944540-2
Ecuador awards Sinopec a $105mn oil drilling contract in the Amazon
Petroecuador signed an agreement with Sinopec to drill new wells in the northeastern Amazon, aiming to increase output by 12,000 barrels per day.
en_1140290944540-2
Oil rebounds over 3% driven by gasoline demand
Crude prices gained momentum after a drop triggered by OPEC+, supported by strong gasoline demand in the United States ahead of the summer season.
en_1140290955540-2
Oil rebounds over 3% driven by gasoline demand
Crude prices gained momentum after a drop triggered by OPEC+, supported by strong gasoline demand in the United States ahead of the summer season.
en_1140290955540-2
Subsea7 secures major contract with Petrobras for Búzios 11 field
Petrobras has awarded Subsea7 a large-scale contract for the development of the Búzios 11 field, located in the pre-salt Santos basin offshore Brazil.
en_1140290967540-2
Subsea7 secures major contract with Petrobras for Búzios 11 field
Petrobras has awarded Subsea7 a large-scale contract for the development of the Búzios 11 field, located in the pre-salt Santos basin offshore Brazil.
en_1140290967540-2

Equinor sells its 60% stake in the Peregrino field for $3.5 billion

Norway’s Equinor sells its majority stake in Brazil’s offshore Peregrino field to PRIO for $3.5 billion, shifting focus to Bacalhau and the Raia gas project.
Shell strengthens its position in the Gulf of Mexico with majority stake in Ursa
Shell has completed the acquisition of additional shares in the Ursa oil platform and its associated pipeline, raising its stake to over 61% in both assets.
en_1140290966540-1
Shell strengthens its position in the Gulf of Mexico with majority stake in Ursa
Shell has completed the acquisition of additional shares in the Ursa oil platform and its associated pipeline, raising its stake to over 61% in both assets.
en_1140290966540-1
Opec+ ramps up production despite crude falling below $62
Eight Opec+ members will raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in June, boosting global supply amid falling prices and ongoing trade tensions.
en_1140290964540-2
Opec+ ramps up production despite crude falling below $62
Eight Opec+ members will raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in June, boosting global supply amid falling prices and ongoing trade tensions.
en_1140290964540-2
US crude oil stocks fall by 2.7 million barrels in one week
Commercial crude inventories in the United States saw an unexpected drop, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
en_1140290958540-16
US crude oil stocks fall by 2.7 million barrels in one week
Commercial crude inventories in the United States saw an unexpected drop, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
en_1140290958540-16

TotalEnergies posts 33% drop in net profit in first quarter

TotalEnergies saw its net profit fall to $3.9bn in the first quarter, impacted by lower oil prices, despite an increase in its hydrocarbon and electricity production.
Repsol posts 62% drop in net profit in first quarter
Repsol’s quarterly performance plunged due to the combined impact of falling crude prices, shrinking refining margins and trade tensions between the United States and its partners.
en_1140290955540-17
Repsol posts 62% drop in net profit in first quarter
Repsol’s quarterly performance plunged due to the combined impact of falling crude prices, shrinking refining margins and trade tensions between the United States and its partners.
en_1140290955540-17
OMV posts 70% drop in net profit for Q1 2025
Austrian group OMV sees profits collapse amid halted Russian gas flows, strategic repositioning in chemicals and shift toward new industrial partnerships.
en_1140290950540-17
OMV posts 70% drop in net profit for Q1 2025
Austrian group OMV sees profits collapse amid halted Russian gas flows, strategic repositioning in chemicals and shift toward new industrial partnerships.
en_1140290950540-17
Ecopetrol obtains authorisation for a $500mn loan with Banco Santander
Ecopetrol received approval from the Ministry of Finance to contract a $500mn loan with Banco Santander, intended to cover non-investment expenses under its 2025 financing plan.
en_1140290950540-16
Ecopetrol obtains authorisation for a $500mn loan with Banco Santander
Ecopetrol received approval from the Ministry of Finance to contract a $500mn loan with Banco Santander, intended to cover non-investment expenses under its 2025 financing plan.
en_1140290950540-16

PetroChina records a 2.3% increase in net profit in the first quarter of 2025

PetroChina announced stable growth in operational results for the first quarter of 2025, supported by an increase in oil and gas production and accelerated development in renewable energies.
CNOOC Limited records 4.8% production growth in the first quarter of 2025
CNOOC Limited announced an increase in production and maintained profitability in the first quarter of 2025, despite an 8.3% drop in Brent crude oil prices compared to last year.
en_1140290957540-14
CNOOC Limited records 4.8% production growth in the first quarter of 2025
CNOOC Limited announced an increase in production and maintained profitability in the first quarter of 2025, despite an 8.3% drop in Brent crude oil prices compared to last year.
en_1140290957540-14
Eni confirms major oil discovery offshore Namibia
Eni announced the successful drilling of the Capricornus 1-X well in Namibia's Orange Basin, revealing a significant light oil reservoir after positive production tests.
en_1140290950540-15
Eni confirms major oil discovery offshore Namibia
Eni announced the successful drilling of the Capricornus 1-X well in Namibia's Orange Basin, revealing a significant light oil reservoir after positive production tests.
en_1140290950540-15
Tariffs, Oversupply: Oil Industry Faces Imminent Global Contraction
The global oil industry anticipates a significant decline in exploration and production investments from 2025, amid persistent oversupply, exacerbated by increased U.S. tariffs and recent decisions by OPEC+.
en_1140290990540
Tariffs, Oversupply: Oil Industry Faces Imminent Global Contraction
The global oil industry anticipates a significant decline in exploration and production investments from 2025, amid persistent oversupply, exacerbated by increased U.S. tariffs and recent decisions by OPEC+.
en_1140290990540

Advertising

LEGAL

FOSSILS

POLICY

RENEWABLE

PLUS

VERVANT

Welcome

Your subscription

Included in this subscription:

COMMUNICATE ON ENERGYNEWS