IEA oil forecasts for 2024 revised downwards

The International Energy Agency adjusts its oil demand forecasts for 2024, reflecting a slowdown in Europe and OECD countries.

Share:

industrie pétrolière

Gain full professional access to energynews.pro from 4.90$/month.
Designed for decision-makers, with no long-term commitment.

Over 30,000 articles published since 2021.
150 new market analyses every week to decode global energy trends.

Monthly Digital PRO PASS

Immediate Access
4.90$/month*

No commitment – cancel anytime, activation in 2 minutes.

*Special launch offer: 1st month at the indicated price, then 14.90 $/month, no long-term commitment.

Annual Digital PRO Pass

Full Annual Access
99$/year*

To access all of energynews.pro without any limits

*Introductory annual price for year one, automatically renewed at 149.00 $/year from the second year.

In its latest report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downwards its estimates of global oil demand growth for 2024. Initially forecast to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), demand has been adjusted to 960,000 barrels per day, 140,000 barrels less than previously forecast. This revision reflects a downturn in the first quarter, mainly in Europe. A mild winter and an increase in energy efficiency influenced this downturn. This is due to a reduction in the number of diesel vehicles on the road.

Regional dynamics and outlook for 2025

TheIEA maintains a stable forecast for 2025, with demand growth estimated at 1.2 mb/d, suggesting a slight improvement on 2024. The report points out that the pace of this growth is slowing down compared to the post-Covid recovery of 2023. Although emerging countries, led by China, are the main drivers of growth. This dynamic illustrates the challenges and opportunities facing the global oil market in the face of fluctuating economic and climatic variables.

Oil supply analysis and producer strategies

On the supply side, the IEA forecasts an increase of 580,000 barrels per day in 2024. Non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil contribute to this supply. However, US supply growth is showing signs of slowing. However, OPEC+ supply could fall by 840,000 barrels per day if the coalition maintains its restrictive production policy. Opep+ has scheduled a key meeting for June 1. The aim is to redefine its future strategies in response to current market trends.
The IEA’s downward revision of oil demand for 2024 highlights the impact of economic and environmental conditions on the global energy market. Producers are adjusting their supply, and future decisions will be crucial to balancing markets and supporting economic recovery.

A drone attack on a Bachneft oil facility in Ufa sparked a fire with no casualties, temporarily disrupting activity at one of Russia’s largest refineries.
The divide between the United States and the European Union over regulations on Russian oil exports to India is causing a drop in scheduled deliveries, as negotiation margins tighten between buyers and sellers.
Against market expectations, US commercial crude reserves surged due to a sharp drop in exports, only slightly affecting international prices.
Russia plans to ship 2.1 million barrels per day from its western ports in September, revising exports upward amid lower domestic demand following drone attacks on key refineries.
QatarEnergy obtained a 35% stake in the Nzombo block, located in deep waters off Congo, under a production sharing contract signed with the Congolese government.
Phillips 66 acquires Cenovus Energy’s remaining 50% in WRB Refining, strengthening its US market position with two major sites totalling 495,000 barrels per day.
Nigeria’s two main oil unions have halted loadings at the Dangote refinery, contesting the rollout of a private logistics fleet that could reshape the sector’s balance.
Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd. enters Gabonese offshore with a strategic contract on the Ngulu block, expanding its portfolio with immediate production potential and long-term development opportunities.
BW Energy has finalised a $365mn financing for the conversion of the Maromba FPSO offshore Brazil and signed a short-term lease for a drilling rig with Minsheng Financial Leasing.
Vantage Drilling has finalised a major commercial agreement for the deployment of the Platinum Explorer, with a 260-day offshore mission starting in Q1 2026.
Permex Petroleum has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Chisos Ltd. for potential funding of up to $25mn to develop its oil assets in the Permian Basin.
OPEC+ begins a new phase of gradual production increases, starting to lift 1.65 million barrels/day of voluntary cuts after the early conclusion of a 2.2 million barrels/day phaseout.
Imperial Petroleum expanded its fleet to 19 vessels in the second quarter of 2025, while reporting a decline in revenue due to lower rates in the maritime oil market.
Eight OPEC+ members will meet to adjust their quotas as forecasts point to a global surplus of 3 million barrels per day by year-end.
Greek shipping companies are gradually withdrawing from transporting Russian crude as the European Union tightens compliance conditions on price caps.
A key station on the Stalnoy Kon pipeline, essential for transporting petroleum products between Belarus and Russia, was targeted in a drone strike carried out by Ukrainian forces in Bryansk Oblast.
SOMO is negotiating with ExxonMobil to secure storage and refining access in Singapore, aiming to strengthen Iraq’s position in expanding Asian markets.
The European Union’s new import standard forces the United Kingdom to make major adjustments to its oil and gas exports, impacting competitiveness and trade flows between the two markets.
The United Kingdom is set to replace the Energy Profits Levy with a new fiscal mechanism, caught between fairness and simplicity, as the British Continental Shelf continues to decline.
The Italian government is demanding assurances on fuel supply security before approving the sale of Italiana Petroli to Azerbaijan's state-owned energy group SOCAR, as negotiations continue.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.