SUBSCRIBE
PROFILE

IEA oil forecasts for 2024 revised downwards

The International Energy Agency adjusts its oil demand forecasts for 2024, reflecting a slowdown in Europe and OECD countries.

Share:

industrie pétrolière

Gain full professional access to energynews.pro from 4.90$/month.
Designed for decision-makers, with no long-term commitment.

Over 30,000 articles published since 2021.
150 new market analyses every week to decode global energy trends.

Monthly Digital PRO PASS

Immediate Access
4.90$/month*

No commitment – cancel anytime, activation in 2 minutes.

START NOW — 4.90$/month

*Special launch offer: 1st month at the indicated price, then 14.90 $/month, no long-term commitment.

Annual Digital PRO Pass

Full Annual Access
99$/year*

To access all of energynews.pro without any limits

SUBSCRIBE — 99$/year

*Introductory annual price for year one, automatically renewed at 149.00 $/year from the second year.

Sign up for free to unlock this article

In its latest report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downwards its estimates of global oil demand growth for 2024. Initially forecast to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), demand has been adjusted to 960,000 barrels per day, 140,000 barrels less than previously forecast. This revision reflects a downturn in the first quarter, mainly in Europe. A mild winter and an increase in energy efficiency influenced this downturn. This is due to a reduction in the number of diesel vehicles on the road.

Regional dynamics and outlook for 2025

TheIEA maintains a stable forecast for 2025, with demand growth estimated at 1.2 mb/d, suggesting a slight improvement on 2024. The report points out that the pace of this growth is slowing down compared to the post-Covid recovery of 2023. Although emerging countries, led by China, are the main drivers of growth. This dynamic illustrates the challenges and opportunities facing the global oil market in the face of fluctuating economic and climatic variables.

Oil supply analysis and producer strategies

On the supply side, the IEA forecasts an increase of 580,000 barrels per day in 2024. Non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil contribute to this supply. However, US supply growth is showing signs of slowing. However, OPEC+ supply could fall by 840,000 barrels per day if the coalition maintains its restrictive production policy. Opep+ has scheduled a key meeting for June 1. The aim is to redefine its future strategies in response to current market trends.
The IEA’s downward revision of oil demand for 2024 highlights the impact of economic and environmental conditions on the global energy market. Producers are adjusting their supply, and future decisions will be crucial to balancing markets and supporting economic recovery.

  • Popular on energynews.pro
Independent producers generated $563bn in US GDP in 2024
Gibson Energy renews share buyback programme for 12 months
QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies launch final phase of major gas project in Iraq
Hydrostor secures $55mn Canadian support for its storage project in Australia
US crude oil stocks rise by 3.9 million barrels
Syrian tanker docks in Trieste, first crude delivery in 14 years
A Syrian vessel carrying 640,000 barrels of crude has docked in Italy, marking the country’s first oil shipment since the civil war began in 2011, amid partial easing of US sanctions.
Canadian exports to China rise on back of expanded TMX pipeline
Canadian crude shipments from the Pacific Coast reached 13.7 million barrels in August, driven by a notable increase in deliveries to China and a drop in flows to the US Gulf Coast.
Oil and gas to remain dominant in global energy mix through 2050
Faced with rising global electricity demand, energy sector leaders are backing an "all-of-the-above" strategy, with oil and gas still expected to supply 50% of global needs by 2050.
UK sanctions 70 tankers to reinforce Russian oil price cap
London has expanded its sanctions against Russia by blacklisting 70 new tankers, striking at the core of Moscow's energy exports and budget revenues.
Iraq and Oman in talks to build new oil pipeline to secure exports to Asia
Iraq is negotiating with Oman to build a pipeline linking Basrah to Omani shores to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz and stabilise crude exports to Asia.
Vallourec signs $1bn contract with Petrobras for Brazilian offshore operations
French steel tube manufacturer Vallourec has secured a strategic agreement with Petrobras, covering complete offshore well solutions from 2026 to 2029.
IEA warns of 3.3 million barrel oil surplus in 2026
Increased output from Opec+ and non-member producers is expected to create a global oil surplus as early as 2025, putting pressure on crude prices, according to the International Energy Agency.
Petrobras takes 27.5% stake in Block 4 offshore São Tomé with Shell and Galp
The Brazilian company expands its African footprint with a new offshore exploration stake, partnering with Shell and Galp to develop São Tomé and Príncipe’s Block 4.
Drone strikes major Bachneft refinery in Ufa, fire breaks out
A drone attack on a Bachneft oil facility in Ufa sparked a fire with no casualties, temporarily disrupting activity at one of Russia’s largest refineries.
Transatlantic rift over Russian oil reduces Indian volumes in October
The divide between the United States and the European Union over regulations on Russian oil exports to India is causing a drop in scheduled deliveries, as negotiation margins tighten between buyers and sellers.
Russia increases oil exports from western ports by 11% in September
Russia plans to ship 2.1 million barrels per day from its western ports in September, revising exports upward amid lower domestic demand following drone attacks on key refineries.
QatarEnergy secures offshore exploration licence in Congo
QatarEnergy obtained a 35% stake in the Nzombo block, located in deep waters off Congo, under a production sharing contract signed with the Congolese government.
Phillips 66 takes full control of two US refineries for $1.4bn
Phillips 66 acquires Cenovus Energy’s remaining 50% in WRB Refining, strengthening its US market position with two major sites totalling 495,000 barrels per day.
Union strike threatens fuel deliveries from Dangote refinery
Nigeria’s two main oil unions have halted loadings at the Dangote refinery, contesting the rollout of a private logistics fleet that could reshape the sector’s balance.
ReconAfrica secures offshore block in Gabon with production sharing contract
Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd. enters Gabonese offshore with a strategic contract on the Ngulu block, expanding its portfolio with immediate production potential and long-term development opportunities.
BW Energy raises $365mn for Maromba FPSO and secures drilling rig
BW Energy has finalised a $365mn financing for the conversion of the Maromba FPSO offshore Brazil and signed a short-term lease for a drilling rig with Minsheng Financial Leasing.
Vantage Drilling signs 260-day contract for the Platinum Explorer
Vantage Drilling has finalised a major commercial agreement for the deployment of the Platinum Explorer, with a 260-day offshore mission starting in Q1 2026.
Permex signs agreement for potential $25mn funding with Chisos
Permex Petroleum has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Chisos Ltd. for potential funding of up to $25mn to develop its oil assets in the Permian Basin.
OPEC+ approves 137,000 barrels/day increase starting in October
OPEC+ begins a new phase of gradual production increases, starting to lift 1.65 million barrels/day of voluntary cuts after the early conclusion of a 2.2 million barrels/day phaseout.
Imperial Petroleum invests in seven vessels despite a 22.8% drop in revenue
Imperial Petroleum expanded its fleet to 19 vessels in the second quarter of 2025, while reporting a decline in revenue due to lower rates in the maritime oil market.

Log in to read this article

You'll also have access to a selection of our best content.