IEA oil forecasts for 2024 revised downwards

The International Energy Agency adjusts its oil demand forecasts for 2024, reflecting a slowdown in Europe and OECD countries.
industrie pétrolière

Partagez:

In its latest report, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised downwards its estimates of global oil demand growth for 2024. Initially forecast to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), demand has been adjusted to 960,000 barrels per day, 140,000 barrels less than previously forecast. This revision reflects a downturn in the first quarter, mainly in Europe. A mild winter and an increase in energy efficiency influenced this downturn. This is due to a reduction in the number of diesel vehicles on the road.

Regional dynamics and outlook for 2025

TheIEA maintains a stable forecast for 2025, with demand growth estimated at 1.2 mb/d, suggesting a slight improvement on 2024. The report points out that the pace of this growth is slowing down compared to the post-Covid recovery of 2023. Although emerging countries, led by China, are the main drivers of growth. This dynamic illustrates the challenges and opportunities facing the global oil market in the face of fluctuating economic and climatic variables.

Oil supply analysis and producer strategies

On the supply side, the IEA forecasts an increase of 580,000 barrels per day in 2024. Non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, Guyana, Canada and Brazil contribute to this supply. However, US supply growth is showing signs of slowing. However, OPEC+ supply could fall by 840,000 barrels per day if the coalition maintains its restrictive production policy. Opep+ has scheduled a key meeting for June 1. The aim is to redefine its future strategies in response to current market trends.
The IEA’s downward revision of oil demand for 2024 highlights the impact of economic and environmental conditions on the global energy market. Producers are adjusting their supply, and future decisions will be crucial to balancing markets and supporting economic recovery.

British company Prax Group has filed for insolvency, putting hundreds of jobs at its Lindsey oil site at risk, according to Sky News.
Orlen announces the definitive halt of its Russian oil purchases for the Czech Republic, marking the end of deliveries by Rosneft following the contract expiry, amid evolving logistics and diversification of regional supply sources.
Equinor and Shell launch Adura, a new joint venture consolidating their main offshore assets in the United Kingdom, aiming to secure energy supply with an expected production of over 140,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Equinor announces a new oil discovery estimated at between 9 and 15 mn barrels at the Johan Castberg field in the Barents Sea, strengthening the reserve potential in Norway's northern region.
Sierra Leone relaunches an ambitious offshore exploration campaign, using a 3D seismic survey to evaluate up to 60 potential oil blocks before opening a new licensing round as early as next October.
Faced with recurrent shortages, Zambia is reorganising its fuel supply chain, notably issuing licences for operating new tanker trucks and service stations to enhance national energy security and reduce external dependence.
The closure of the Grangemouth refinery has triggered a record increase in UK oil inventories, highlighting growing dependence on imports and an expanding deficit in domestic refining capacity.
Mexco Energy Corporation reports an annual net profit of $1.71mn, up 27%, driven by increased hydrocarbon production despite persistently weak natural gas prices in the Permian Basin.
S&P Global Ratings lowers Ecopetrol's global rating to BB following Colombia's sovereign downgrade, while Moody’s Investors Service confirms the group's Ba1 rating with a stable outlook.
Shell group publicly clarifies it is neither considering discussions nor approaches for a potential takeover of its British rival BP, putting an end to recent media speculation about a possible merger between the two oil giants.
The anticipated increase in the tax deduction rate may encourage independent refineries in Shandong to restart fuel oil imports, compensating for limited crude oil import quotas.
Petro-Victory Energy Corp. starts drilling of the AND-5 well in the Potiguar Basin, Brazil, as the first phase of an operation financed through its strategic partnership with Azevedo & Travassos Energia.
The Texan Port of Corpus Christi has completed major widening and deepening work designed to accommodate more supertankers, thus strengthening its strategic position in the US market for crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust is offering its interest in Prudhoe Bay, North America’s largest oil field, as part of its planned dissolution, assisted by RedOaks Energy Advisors for this strategic asset transaction.
CNOOC Limited’s Hong Kong subsidiary and KazMunayGas have concluded a nine-year exploration and production contract covering nine hundred and fifty-eight square kilometres in Kazakhstan, sharing investment and operations equally.
Donald Trump announced that the United States will no longer oppose Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, immediately triggering a drop in global crude oil prices and profoundly reshaping international energy trade partnerships.
Research firm S&P Global Commodity Insights lifts its outlook for the fourth straight year, betting on three point five mn barrels per day from 2025 despite lower prices.
Enbridge plans to expand its infrastructure to increase oil transportation from the American Midwest to the Gulf Coast, anticipating rising exports and addressing current market logistical constraints.
US commercial crude inventories significantly decline by 3.1 million barrels, widely surpassing initial forecasts and immediately pushing international oil prices higher.
The UK could have hydrocarbon reserves twice as large as current official estimates, according to Offshore Energies UK, highlighting the impact of fiscal policies on forecasts and the economic future of the North Sea.