Decline of oil and fall of natural gas in 2023

In 2023, global energy markets experienced a surprising dynamic: a significant drop in oil prices and a drastic fall in natural gas prices.

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This year, the oil sector was marked by falling prices, despite fears of supply disruptions and tensions in the Middle East. North Sea Brent and US WTI both recorded declines, with prices ending at $77.04 and $71.65 respectively. Analysts like Exinity’s Han Tan point out that the geopolitical risk premium has already been factored into prices, mitigating the impact of regional tensions.

European Natural Gas down sharply

The European natural gas market ended the year on an even gloomier note. The Dutch TTF futures contract fell by 4.59% to 32.095 euros per megawatt-hour. This drop is attributed to weaker-than-expected European gas demand, despite the recent cold snaps. DNB analysts note that high storage levels in Europe and a warmer-than-normal winter have contributed to this trend.

Sector Analysis and Outlook

Oil and gas markets were influenced by a series of factors in 2023. OPEC+ reduced its production, but this was not enough to stimulate the appetite for oil. Geopolitical tensions, in particular the Hamas offensive against Israel, initially raised concerns, but did not significantly disrupt supplies. Disagreements within OPEC+ and the group’s loss of power also left investors skeptical.

While 2023 ended on mixed notes for the energy sector, fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices testify to the complexity and uncertainty that now characterize the market. These trends, influenced by a range of geopolitical and economic factors, remind industry players of the importance of strategic intelligence and adaptability in the face of a constantly changing environment. This year serves as a reminder that when it comes to energy, yesterday’s certainties are not necessarily tomorrow’s realities.

Khartoum et Juba annoncent un mécanisme commun pour protéger les oléoducs transfrontaliers, sans clarifier le rôle des forces armées non étatiques qui contrôlent une partie des installations.
The Namibian government signed an agreement with McDermott to strengthen local skills in offshore engineering and operations, aiming to increase oil sector local content to 15% by 2030.
Nigeria deploys a 2.2 million-barrel floating storage unit funded by public investment, strengthening sovereignty over oil exports and reducing losses from theft and infrastructure failures.
Despite open statements of dialogue, the federal government maintains an ambiguous regulatory framework that hinders interprovincial oil projects, leaving the industry in doubt.
Canada’s Sintana Energy acquires Challenger Energy in a $61mn all-share deal, targeting offshore exploration in Namibia and Uruguay. The move highlights growing consolidation among independent oil exploration firms.
The 120,000-barrel-per-day catalytic cracking unit at the Beaumont site resumed operations after an unexpected shutdown caused by a technical incident earlier in the week.
An agreement was reached between Khartoum and Juba to protect key oil installations, as ongoing armed conflict continues to threaten crude flows vital to both economies.
Alnaft has signed two study agreements with Omani firm Petrogas E&P on the Touggourt and Berkine basins, aiming to update hydrocarbon potential in key oil-producing areas.
Import quotas exhaustion and falling demand push Chinese independent refineries to sharply reduce Iranian crude volumes, affecting supply levels and putting downward pressure on prices.
Serbian oil company NIS, partially owned by Gazprom, faces newly enforced US sanctions after a nine-month reprieve, testing the country's fuel supply chain.
US-based Chevron appoints Kevin McLachlan, a veteran of TotalEnergies, as its global head of exploration, in a strategic move targeting Nigeria, Angola and Namibia.
Lycos Energy finalises the sale of its Alberta assets for $60mn, planning an immediate $47.9mn cash distribution to shareholders and the launch of a share buyback programme.
Russian oil output moved closer to its OPEC+ allocation in September, with a steady rise confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.
Fuel shortages now affect Bamako, struck in turn by a jihadist blockade targeting petroleum flows from Ivorian and Senegalese ports, severely disrupting national logistics.
McDermott has signed a memorandum of understanding with PETROFUND to launch technical training programmes aimed at strengthening local skills in Namibia’s oil and gas sector.
The example of OML 17 highlights the success of an African-led oil production model based on local accountability, strengthening Nigeria’s position in public energy investment.
ExxonMobil has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Iraqi government to develop the Majnoon oil field, marking its return to the country after a two-year absence.
Crude prices rose following the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to increase production only marginally in November, despite ongoing signs of oversupply.
Cenovus Energy modifies terms of its acquisition of MEG Energy by increasing the offer value and adjusting the cash-share split, while reporting record third-quarter results.
Hungarian oil group MOL and Croatian operator JANAF are negotiating an extension of their crude transport agreement as the region seeks to reduce reliance on Russian oil.

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