Decline of oil and fall of natural gas in 2023

In 2023, global energy markets experienced a surprising dynamic: a significant drop in oil prices and a drastic fall in natural gas prices.

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This year, the oil sector was marked by falling prices, despite fears of supply disruptions and tensions in the Middle East. North Sea Brent and US WTI both recorded declines, with prices ending at $77.04 and $71.65 respectively. Analysts like Exinity’s Han Tan point out that the geopolitical risk premium has already been factored into prices, mitigating the impact of regional tensions.

European Natural Gas down sharply

The European natural gas market ended the year on an even gloomier note. The Dutch TTF futures contract fell by 4.59% to 32.095 euros per megawatt-hour. This drop is attributed to weaker-than-expected European gas demand, despite the recent cold snaps. DNB analysts note that high storage levels in Europe and a warmer-than-normal winter have contributed to this trend.

Sector Analysis and Outlook

Oil and gas markets were influenced by a series of factors in 2023. OPEC+ reduced its production, but this was not enough to stimulate the appetite for oil. Geopolitical tensions, in particular the Hamas offensive against Israel, initially raised concerns, but did not significantly disrupt supplies. Disagreements within OPEC+ and the group’s loss of power also left investors skeptical.

While 2023 ended on mixed notes for the energy sector, fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices testify to the complexity and uncertainty that now characterize the market. These trends, influenced by a range of geopolitical and economic factors, remind industry players of the importance of strategic intelligence and adaptability in the face of a constantly changing environment. This year serves as a reminder that when it comes to energy, yesterday’s certainties are not necessarily tomorrow’s realities.

Russia plans to ship 2.1 million barrels per day from its western ports in September, revising exports upward amid lower domestic demand following drone attacks on key refineries.
QatarEnergy obtained a 35% stake in the Nzombo block, located in deep waters off Congo, under a production sharing contract signed with the Congolese government.
Phillips 66 acquires Cenovus Energy’s remaining 50% in WRB Refining, strengthening its US market position with two major sites totalling 495,000 barrels per day.
Nigeria’s two main oil unions have halted loadings at the Dangote refinery, contesting the rollout of a private logistics fleet that could reshape the sector’s balance.
Reconnaissance Energy Africa Ltd. enters Gabonese offshore with a strategic contract on the Ngulu block, expanding its portfolio with immediate production potential and long-term development opportunities.
BW Energy has finalised a $365mn financing for the conversion of the Maromba FPSO offshore Brazil and signed a short-term lease for a drilling rig with Minsheng Financial Leasing.
Vantage Drilling has finalised a major commercial agreement for the deployment of the Platinum Explorer, with a 260-day offshore mission starting in Q1 2026.
Permex Petroleum has signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with Chisos Ltd. for potential funding of up to $25mn to develop its oil assets in the Permian Basin.
OPEC+ begins a new phase of gradual production increases, starting to lift 1.65 million barrels/day of voluntary cuts after the early conclusion of a 2.2 million barrels/day phaseout.
Imperial Petroleum expanded its fleet to 19 vessels in the second quarter of 2025, while reporting a decline in revenue due to lower rates in the maritime oil market.
Eight OPEC+ members will meet to adjust their quotas as forecasts point to a global surplus of 3 million barrels per day by year-end.
Greek shipping companies are gradually withdrawing from transporting Russian crude as the European Union tightens compliance conditions on price caps.
A key station on the Stalnoy Kon pipeline, essential for transporting petroleum products between Belarus and Russia, was targeted in a drone strike carried out by Ukrainian forces in Bryansk Oblast.
SOMO is negotiating with ExxonMobil to secure storage and refining access in Singapore, aiming to strengthen Iraq’s position in expanding Asian markets.
The European Union’s new import standard forces the United Kingdom to make major adjustments to its oil and gas exports, impacting competitiveness and trade flows between the two markets.
The United Kingdom is set to replace the Energy Profits Levy with a new fiscal mechanism, caught between fairness and simplicity, as the British Continental Shelf continues to decline.
The Italian government is demanding assurances on fuel supply security before approving the sale of Italiana Petroli to Azerbaijan's state-owned energy group SOCAR, as negotiations continue.
The Dangote complex has halted its main gasoline unit for an estimated two to three months, disrupting its initial exports to the United States.
Rosneft Germany announces the resumption of oil deliveries to the PCK refinery, following repairs to the Druzhba pipeline hit by a drone strike in Russia that disrupted Kazakh supply.
CNOOC has launched production at the Wenchang 16-2 field in the South China Sea, supported by 15 development wells and targeting a plateau of 11,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2027.

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