Decline of oil and fall of natural gas in 2023

In 2023, global energy markets experienced a surprising dynamic: a significant drop in oil prices and a drastic fall in natural gas prices.

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This year, the oil sector was marked by falling prices, despite fears of supply disruptions and tensions in the Middle East. North Sea Brent and US WTI both recorded declines, with prices ending at $77.04 and $71.65 respectively. Analysts like Exinity’s Han Tan point out that the geopolitical risk premium has already been factored into prices, mitigating the impact of regional tensions.

European Natural Gas down sharply

The European natural gas market ended the year on an even gloomier note. The Dutch TTF futures contract fell by 4.59% to 32.095 euros per megawatt-hour. This drop is attributed to weaker-than-expected European gas demand, despite the recent cold snaps. DNB analysts note that high storage levels in Europe and a warmer-than-normal winter have contributed to this trend.

Sector Analysis and Outlook

Oil and gas markets were influenced by a series of factors in 2023. OPEC+ reduced its production, but this was not enough to stimulate the appetite for oil. Geopolitical tensions, in particular the Hamas offensive against Israel, initially raised concerns, but did not significantly disrupt supplies. Disagreements within OPEC+ and the group’s loss of power also left investors skeptical.

While 2023 ended on mixed notes for the energy sector, fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices testify to the complexity and uncertainty that now characterize the market. These trends, influenced by a range of geopolitical and economic factors, remind industry players of the importance of strategic intelligence and adaptability in the face of a constantly changing environment. This year serves as a reminder that when it comes to energy, yesterday’s certainties are not necessarily tomorrow’s realities.

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Occidental Petroleum announces a decrease in its production in the Gulf of Mexico in the second quarter, citing third-party constraints, extended maintenance, and scheduling delays.
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Permex Petroleum Corporation has completed a US$2mn fundraising by issuing convertible debentures, aimed at strengthening its cash position, without using intermediaries, and targeting a single institutional investor.
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Petro-Victory Energy announces the completion of drilling operations for the AND-5 well in the Andorinha field, Brazil, with positive reservoir results and next steps for production.
The Colombian prosecutor’s office has seized two offices belonging to the oil company Perenco in Bogotá. The company is accused of financing the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) in exchange for security services between 1997 and 2005.
Indonesia has signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States to increase its energy imports. This deal, involving Pertamina, aims to diversify the country's energy supply sources.
VAALCO Energy continues to operate the Baobab field by renovating its floating platform, despite modest production. This strategy aims to maintain stable profitability at low cost.
An empty reservoir exploded at a Lukoil-Perm oil facility in Russia, causing no injuries according to initial assessments pointing to a chemical reaction with oxygen as the cause of the accident.
The British Lindsey refinery has resumed fuel deliveries after reaching a temporary agreement to continue operations, while the future of this strategic site remains under insolvency proceedings.
McDermott secures contract worth up to $50 million with BRAVA Energia to install subsea equipment on the Papa-Terra and Atlanta oil fields off the Brazilian coast.