Russia

Serbian oil company NIS, partially owned by Gazprom, faces newly enforced US sanctions after a nine-month reprieve, testing the country's fuel supply chain.
Russian oil output moved closer to its OPEC+ allocation in September, with a steady rise confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

Russia formally exits bilateral nuclear agreement with the United States

The State Duma has approved Russia’s formal withdrawal from a treaty signed with the United States on the elimination of military-grade plutonium, ending over two decades of strategic nuclear cooperation.
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Crude prices rose following the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to increase production only marginally in November, despite ongoing signs of oversupply.
The Ukrainian government is preparing to raise natural gas imports by 30% to offset damage to its energy infrastructure and ensure supply continuity during the winter season.

Belarus quadruples fuel exports to Russia in September

Rail shipments of Belarusian gasoline to Russia surged in September as Moscow sought to offset fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian attacks on its energy infrastructure.
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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said it was not in Poland’s interest to extradite to Germany a Ukrainian citizen suspected of taking part in the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022.
Denmark is intensifying inspections of ships passing through Skagen, a strategic point linking the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, to counter the risks posed by the Russian shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil.

China opts for quarterly thermal coal contracts with Indonesia for 2026

Chinese buyers begin negotiations for 2026 thermal coal deliveries, favouring shorter contracts to maintain flexibility in a stable price environment.
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A night-time attack on Belgorod’s power grid left thousands without electricity, according to Russian local authorities, despite partial service restoration the following morning.
Opec+ slightly adjusts its quotas for November, continuing its market share recovery strategy amid stagnant global demand and a pressured market.

OPEC+ prepares new production hike amid rift between Riyadh and Moscow

Eight OPEC+ countries are set to increase oil output from November, as Saudi Arabia and Russia debate the scale of the hike amid rising competition for market share.
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Hungary has signed a ten-year agreement with Engie for the annual import of 400 mn m³ of liquefied natural gas starting in 2028, reinforcing its energy diversification strategy despite its ongoing reliance on Russian gas.
The potential removal by Moscow of duties on Chinese gasoline revives export prospects and could tighten regional supply, while Singapore and South Korea remain on the sidelines.

Russian strike cuts power to Chernobyl site, reigniting nuclear safety concerns

The containment structure over Chernobyl’s destroyed reactor lost power after a Russian strike, as Zaporizhzhia remains cut off from external electricity for over a week.
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An unprecedented overnight offensive targeted gas infrastructure in Ukraine, damaging several key facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions, according to Ukrainian authorities.
Vladimir Putin responded to the interception of a tanker suspected of belonging to the Russian shadow fleet, calling the French operation “piracy” and denying any direct Russian involvement.

Macron urges Europe to act against Russian shadow fleet after offshore seizure

France intercepted a tanker linked to Russian exports, prompting Emmanuel Macron to call for a coordinated European response to hinder vessels bypassing oil sanctions.
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After being intercepted by the French navy, the Boracay oil tanker, linked to Russia's shadow fleet, left Saint-Nazaire with its oil cargo, reigniting tensions over Moscow’s circumvention of European sanctions.
Russian seaborne crude shipments surged in September to their highest level since April 2024, despite G7 sanctions and repeated drone strikes on refinery infrastructure.
Despite internal disagreements, OPEC+ decided to maintain its production cuts until March 2025, extending their gradual removal to avoid a price drop in an uncertain market environment.
A leak detected on a branch of the Druzhba pipeline in Poland reignites debates on the security of energy infrastructures in Europe amid geopolitical tensions and reliance on strategic networks.

Completion of the “Power of Siberia” Gas Pipeline: Strategic Implications for Russia and China

Russia and China complete the "Power of Siberia" gas pipeline six months ahead of schedule. This strategic infrastructure, designed to transport 38 billion cubic meters per year, is reshaping Eurasian energy and economic dynamics.
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Qatar will supply China with 3 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually starting in 2025, under a long-term agreement with Shell, reinforcing its position in the Asian and global LNG market.
Gazprom sets its 2025 investment budget at 1.52 trillion rubles, marking a notable reduction. The focus remains on China with the expansion of the "Power of Siberia" pipeline to meet growing demand.

HSFO Margins Narrow in Singapore Despite Stable Supply

HSFO premiums in Singapore fall in December as geopolitical tensions and limited demand from Chinese refineries signal persistent volatility in marine fuel markets.
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Elengy, a leading French LNG terminal operator, has implemented measures to comply with European sanctions banning the transshipment of Russian LNG starting March 2025.
For the week ending December 8, the United States is expected to become Brazil’s leading diesel supplier, delivering 6% more than Russia, according to preliminary data from S&P Global.

OPEC+ faces strategic choices to stabilize the oil market in 2024

Amid weakened global demand, the rise of U.S. shale oil, and internal divisions, OPEC+ seeks to preserve its influence on prices while adapting its production strategy.
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The new HPCL Rajasthan Refinery Ltd. integrated refinery is set to transform India's petrochemical sector. With an annual capacity of 9 million tons, it aims to reduce petrochemical imports and increase refining margins.
The American bank anticipates a decline in Brent crude oil prices to $76 per barrel in 2025, driven by an oversupply in the global oil market, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

OPEC+ faces strategic challenges ahead of a decisive meeting on oil production

OPEC+ members meet amidst tensions over production targets, global economic uncertainties, and weak demand, particularly in China.
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Offshore wind farm projects in the Baltic Sea are deemed incompatible with Sweden's national defense due to the disruptions they would cause to critical military sensors.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is welcomed in Kazakhstan to discuss major energy projects amidst international rivalries with China and the West.

Bolivia signs a historic agreement with a Chinese company to exploit lithium

A major contract has been signed between Bolivia and Hong Kong CBC Investment for the construction of two lithium carbonate plants, strengthening the country's strategic position in the renewable energy sector.
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Turkey seeks a waiver from U.S. sanctions to continue paying for its gas imports via Gazprombank, which is critical to its energy security, according to Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar.
Saudi, Russian, and Iraqi ministers met in Baghdad to discuss production quotas and oil market stability ahead of the crucial OPEC+ meeting scheduled for December 1.

India and Guyana: A Growing Energy Partnership

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic visit to Guyana paves the way for long-term crude oil import agreements, strengthening India’s energy ambitions amidst fierce European competition.
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Despite commitments to OPEC+ to limit production, the United Arab Emirates shows oil export volumes well above quotas. This situation raises questions and rekindles tensions within the cartel.
Kogas and several Japanese LNG buyers confirmed they do not use the Russian bank Gazprombank, sanctioned by the United States, for transactions related to the Sakhalin 2 project, ensuring no impact on their imports.