The upcoming United Nations Conference on Climate Change, or COP29, will be held in Baku from November 11 to 22. This summit is centered on the issue of climate financing, a crucial matter for developing countries facing the growing challenges of climate change. While the annual financing target of $100 billion set in 2009 was belatedly achieved in 2022, COP29 aims to establish a new financial goal to meet the current and future needs of vulnerable nations affected by global warming.
However, international negotiations could be influenced by the results of the U.S. presidential election, which will occur just days before the summit. The potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency raises concerns among delegates and observers. During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, casting doubt on American commitment to international climate goals. Although the U.S. is not the largest bilateral climate aid provider, its role remains central to negotiations, and a shift in American climate policy could impact global momentum.
A Fragile Geopolitical Context
COP29 unfolds in a tense geopolitical climate marked by major conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as trade tensions between the West and China. Additionally, many developed countries are adopting austerity policies, limiting their room to finance climate projects. The question of who will finance the next steps of the green transition remains unanswered, as financial needs are estimated by some experts at approximately $1 trillion per year.
Rachel Cleetus, a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists, emphasizes that this is a necessity rather than an option. She notes that without immediate investments, the long-term costs associated with climate-related disasters and pollution will be much higher. Amid geopolitical divisions, some observers argue that the pressure to expand the contributor base to emerging economies like China and the Gulf States may reignite North-South tensions.
The Shadow of the U.S. Election
Li Shuo, an expert from the Asia Society Policy Institute, warns that if Donald Trump is re-elected, a “crisis moment” could emerge in negotiations. China, for its part, has pledged to send a message of continuity, expressing hope that the United States will maintain a stable climate policy. Other countries will likely wait for the election results before finalizing their long-term climate commitments, illustrating the critical role of American policy in global climate dynamics.
In 2015, the Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, with an ambition of 1.5°C. However, global warming has already reached 1.3°C, and the United Nations Environment Program estimates that current pledges would lead to a temperature increase of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100, far exceeding the set thresholds. The impacts of warming are already visible, with more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, and floods.
A Financial Tug-of-War
Negotiations over financing are particularly sensitive given that Baku, the host country, is a major hydrocarbon exporter. During COP28 in Dubai, a transition towards phasing out fossil fuels was discussed. This theme may resurface, highlighting the contradictions between political discourse and the economic realities of some countries.
Wealthier nations, currently the main contributors, argue for other actors, such as China or Gulf countries, to also participate in climate financing. This position encounters complexities around historical responsibilities and current financial capacities, generating intense debate. Some experts emphasize the urgency of directing funding toward the green economy, particularly by promoting renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage technologies.
Nations are also preparing for COP30 in Brazil, where they will need to submit new climate commitments. According to Li Shuo, beyond UN commitments, progress is increasingly visible in sectors like solar energy, wind power, and technological innovation. The private sector and countries investing in the green economy seem to be leading the transition, suggesting that climate dynamics may gradually shift from large diplomatic summits to a focus on economic and technological advancements.
