COP29 in Baku: A Climate Summit Under Post-U.S. Election Tensions

World leaders will gather in Baku for COP29, a climate summit that may be disrupted by the U.S. election results, with crucial stakes surrounding the financing of the fight against global warming.

Share:

The upcoming United Nations Conference on Climate Change, or COP29, will be held in Baku from November 11 to 22. This summit is centered on the issue of climate financing, a crucial matter for developing countries facing the growing challenges of climate change. While the annual financing target of $100 billion set in 2009 was belatedly achieved in 2022, COP29 aims to establish a new financial goal to meet the current and future needs of vulnerable nations affected by global warming.

However, international negotiations could be influenced by the results of the U.S. presidential election, which will occur just days before the summit. The potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency raises concerns among delegates and observers. During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, casting doubt on American commitment to international climate goals. Although the U.S. is not the largest bilateral climate aid provider, its role remains central to negotiations, and a shift in American climate policy could impact global momentum.

A Fragile Geopolitical Context

COP29 unfolds in a tense geopolitical climate marked by major conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as trade tensions between the West and China. Additionally, many developed countries are adopting austerity policies, limiting their room to finance climate projects. The question of who will finance the next steps of the green transition remains unanswered, as financial needs are estimated by some experts at approximately $1 trillion per year.

Rachel Cleetus, a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists, emphasizes that this is a necessity rather than an option. She notes that without immediate investments, the long-term costs associated with climate-related disasters and pollution will be much higher. Amid geopolitical divisions, some observers argue that the pressure to expand the contributor base to emerging economies like China and the Gulf States may reignite North-South tensions.

The Shadow of the U.S. Election

Li Shuo, an expert from the Asia Society Policy Institute, warns that if Donald Trump is re-elected, a “crisis moment” could emerge in negotiations. China, for its part, has pledged to send a message of continuity, expressing hope that the United States will maintain a stable climate policy. Other countries will likely wait for the election results before finalizing their long-term climate commitments, illustrating the critical role of American policy in global climate dynamics.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, with an ambition of 1.5°C. However, global warming has already reached 1.3°C, and the United Nations Environment Program estimates that current pledges would lead to a temperature increase of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100, far exceeding the set thresholds. The impacts of warming are already visible, with more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, and floods.

A Financial Tug-of-War

Negotiations over financing are particularly sensitive given that Baku, the host country, is a major hydrocarbon exporter. During COP28 in Dubai, a transition towards phasing out fossil fuels was discussed. This theme may resurface, highlighting the contradictions between political discourse and the economic realities of some countries.

Wealthier nations, currently the main contributors, argue for other actors, such as China or Gulf countries, to also participate in climate financing. This position encounters complexities around historical responsibilities and current financial capacities, generating intense debate. Some experts emphasize the urgency of directing funding toward the green economy, particularly by promoting renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage technologies.

Nations are also preparing for COP30 in Brazil, where they will need to submit new climate commitments. According to Li Shuo, beyond UN commitments, progress is increasingly visible in sectors like solar energy, wind power, and technological innovation. The private sector and countries investing in the green economy seem to be leading the transition, suggesting that climate dynamics may gradually shift from large diplomatic summits to a focus on economic and technological advancements.

BRICS adopt a joint financial framework aimed at supporting emerging economies while criticizing European carbon border tax mechanisms, deemed discriminatory and risky for their strategic trade relations.
The European Commission is launching an alliance with member states and industrial players to secure the supply of critical chemicals, amid growing competition from the United States and China.
Trade between Russia and Saudi Arabia grew by over 60% in 2024 to surpass USD 3.8 billion, according to Russian Minister of Industry and Trade Anton Alikhanov, who outlined new avenues for industrial cooperation.
Meeting in Rio, BRICS nations urge global energy market stability, openly condemning Western sanctions and tariff mechanisms in a tense economic and geopolitical context.
Despite strong ties, Iran's dependence on oil revenues limits its ability to secure substantial strategic support from Russia and China amid current international and regional crises, according to several experts.
Egypt’s Electricity Minister engages in new talks with Envision Group, Windey, LONGi, China Energy, PowerChina, and ToNGWEI to boost local industry and attract investments in renewable energy.
The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz places Gulf producers under intense pressure, highlighting their diplomatic and logistical limitations as a blockage threatens 20 million daily barrels of hydrocarbons destined for global markets.
Budapest and Bratislava jointly reject the European Commission's proposal to ban Russian energy supplies, highlighting significant economic risks and a direct threat to their energy security, days ahead of a key meeting.
Libya officially contests Greece's allocation of offshore oil permits, exacerbating regional tensions over disputed maritime areas south of Crete, rich in hydrocarbons and contested by several Mediterranean states.
Hungary, supported by Slovakia, strongly expresses opposition to the European Commission's plan to phase out imports of Russian energy resources, citing major economic and energy impacts for Central Europe.
Israeli military strikes on Iran's Natanz nuclear site destroyed critical electrical infrastructure but did not reach strategic underground facilities, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The French president travels to Nuuk on 15 June to support Greenlandic sovereignty, review energy projects and respond to recent US pressure, according to the Élysée.
Kazakhstan has selected Rosatom and China National Nuclear Corporation to build two nuclear power plants totaling 2.4 GW, a decision following a favorable referendum and coinciding with Xi Jinping’s upcoming strategic visit.
Israeli strikes against Iranian nuclear sites disrupt US-Iranian talks on the nuclear deal. Tehran now considers canceling the upcoming negotiation round in Oman, heightening regional economic concerns.
Facing alarming breaches of uranium enrichment thresholds by Iran and explicit existential threats, Israel launches targeted military strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure, escalating regional tensions dramatically.
The Kremlin has confirmed that Vladimir Putin aims to help resolve the nuclear dispute between the United States and Iran, leveraging strengthened strategic ties with Tehran.
President Lee Jae-myung adopts an energy diplomacy rooted in national interest, amid a complex international landscape of rivalries that could create challenging situations for the country and its energy businesses.
Paris and Warsaw held a bilateral workshop in Warsaw to strengthen coordination on electricity infrastructure investments and supply security under the Nancy Treaty.
Donald Trump firmly rejects any uranium enrichment by Iran, while Russia affirms Tehran’s right to civil nuclear power, intensifying tensions in negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program.
Syria has signed a $7bn agreement with a consortium of companies from Qatar, Turkey and the United States to rebuild its national power sector.