COP29 in Baku: A Climate Summit Under Post-U.S. Election Tensions

World leaders will gather in Baku for COP29, a climate summit that may be disrupted by the U.S. election results, with crucial stakes surrounding the financing of the fight against global warming.

Share:

Comprehensive energy news coverage, updated nonstop

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access • Archives included • Professional invoice

OTHER ACCESS OPTIONS

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

FREE ACCOUNT

3 articles offered per month

FREE

*Prices are excluding VAT, which may vary depending on your location or professional status

Since 2021: 35,000 articles • 150+ analyses per week

The upcoming United Nations Conference on Climate Change, or COP29, will be held in Baku from November 11 to 22. This summit is centered on the issue of climate financing, a crucial matter for developing countries facing the growing challenges of climate change. While the annual financing target of $100 billion set in 2009 was belatedly achieved in 2022, COP29 aims to establish a new financial goal to meet the current and future needs of vulnerable nations affected by global warming.

However, international negotiations could be influenced by the results of the U.S. presidential election, which will occur just days before the summit. The potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency raises concerns among delegates and observers. During his first term, Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, casting doubt on American commitment to international climate goals. Although the U.S. is not the largest bilateral climate aid provider, its role remains central to negotiations, and a shift in American climate policy could impact global momentum.

A Fragile Geopolitical Context

COP29 unfolds in a tense geopolitical climate marked by major conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as trade tensions between the West and China. Additionally, many developed countries are adopting austerity policies, limiting their room to finance climate projects. The question of who will finance the next steps of the green transition remains unanswered, as financial needs are estimated by some experts at approximately $1 trillion per year.

Rachel Cleetus, a member of the Union of Concerned Scientists, emphasizes that this is a necessity rather than an option. She notes that without immediate investments, the long-term costs associated with climate-related disasters and pollution will be much higher. Amid geopolitical divisions, some observers argue that the pressure to expand the contributor base to emerging economies like China and the Gulf States may reignite North-South tensions.

The Shadow of the U.S. Election

Li Shuo, an expert from the Asia Society Policy Institute, warns that if Donald Trump is re-elected, a “crisis moment” could emerge in negotiations. China, for its part, has pledged to send a message of continuity, expressing hope that the United States will maintain a stable climate policy. Other countries will likely wait for the election results before finalizing their long-term climate commitments, illustrating the critical role of American policy in global climate dynamics.

In 2015, the Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C, with an ambition of 1.5°C. However, global warming has already reached 1.3°C, and the United Nations Environment Program estimates that current pledges would lead to a temperature increase of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100, far exceeding the set thresholds. The impacts of warming are already visible, with more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts, and floods.

A Financial Tug-of-War

Negotiations over financing are particularly sensitive given that Baku, the host country, is a major hydrocarbon exporter. During COP28 in Dubai, a transition towards phasing out fossil fuels was discussed. This theme may resurface, highlighting the contradictions between political discourse and the economic realities of some countries.

Wealthier nations, currently the main contributors, argue for other actors, such as China or Gulf countries, to also participate in climate financing. This position encounters complexities around historical responsibilities and current financial capacities, generating intense debate. Some experts emphasize the urgency of directing funding toward the green economy, particularly by promoting renewable energy, electric vehicles, and energy storage technologies.

Nations are also preparing for COP30 in Brazil, where they will need to submit new climate commitments. According to Li Shuo, beyond UN commitments, progress is increasingly visible in sectors like solar energy, wind power, and technological innovation. The private sector and countries investing in the green economy seem to be leading the transition, suggesting that climate dynamics may gradually shift from large diplomatic summits to a focus on economic and technological advancements.

A report highlights the financial burden of fossil imports during the energy crisis and points to electrification as key to European energy security.
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced a review of public funding for renewable energy, without changing national targets, to avoid rent-seeking effects and better regulate the use of public funds.
The 2025 edition of the Renewable Electricity System Observatory warns of the widening gap between French energy ambitions and industrial reality, requiring immediate acceleration of investments in solar, wind and associated infrastructure.
Kogi State Electricity Distribution Limited reported a ₦1.3bn ($882,011) loss due to power fraud, threatening its operational viability in Kogi State.
More than 40 developers will gather in Livingstone from 26 to 28 November to turn Southern Africa’s energy commitments into bankable and interconnected projects.
Citepa projections confirm a marked slowdown in France's climate trajectory, with emissions reductions well below targets set in the national low-carbon strategy.
The United States has threatened economic sanctions against International Maritime Organization members who approve a global carbon tax on international shipping emissions.
Global progress on electricity access slowed in 2024, with only 11 million new connections, despite targeted efforts in parts of Africa and Asia.
A parliamentary report questions the 2026 electricity pricing reform, warning of increased market exposure for households and a redistribution mechanism lacking clarity.
The US Senate has confirmed two new commissioners to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, creating a Republican majority that could reshape the regulatory approach to national energy infrastructure.
The federal government launches a CAD3mn call for proposals to fund Indigenous participation in energy and infrastructure projects related to critical minerals.
Opportunities are emerging for African countries to move from extraction to industrial manufacturing in energy technology value chains, as the 2025 G20 discussions highlight these issues.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global renewable power capacity could more than double by 2030, driven by the rise of solar photovoltaics despite supply chain pressures and evolving policy frameworks.
Algeria plans to allocate $60 billion to energy projects by 2029, primarily targeting upstream oil and gas, while developing petrochemicals, renewables and unconventional resources.
China set a record for clean technology exports in August, driven by surging sales of electric vehicles and batteries, with more than half of the growth coming from non-OECD markets.
A night-time attack on Belgorod’s power grid left thousands without electricity, according to Russian local authorities, despite partial service restoration the following morning.
The French Academy of Sciences calls for a global ban on solar radiation modification, citing major risks to climate stability and the world economy.
The halt of US federal services disrupts the entire decision-making chain for energy and mining projects, with growing risks of administrative delays and missing critical data.
Facing a potential federal government shutdown, multiple US energy agencies are preparing to suspend services and furlough thousands of employees.
A report reveals the economic impact of renewable energy losses in Chile, indicating that a 1% drop in curtailments could generate $15mn in annual savings.

All the latest energy news, all the time

Annual subscription

8.25$/month*

*billed annually at 99$/year for the first year then 149,00$/year ​

Unlimited access - Archives included - Pro invoice

Monthly subscription

Unlimited access • Archives included

5.2$/month*
then 14.90$ per month thereafter

*Prices shown are exclusive of VAT, which may vary according to your location or professional status.

Since 2021: 30,000 articles - +150 analyses/week.