The climate debate, often fueled by alarming observations, sees some encouraging signals emerge. As COP29 nears, three positive trends could transform the environmental dynamic.
The reduction in warming trajectory, although fragile, offers hope for slowing climate change. In 2015, during the Paris Agreement, forecasts placed the world on a trajectory of +3.5°C by 2100, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, by 2023, adjusted climate commitments reduced this estimate to between 2.6 and 2.8°C, according to UN Environment. Although this narrowing is insufficient to meet the +1.5°C goal, it demonstrates progress in emissions management.
Stabilizing Emissions in China
China, the world’s leading CO2 emitter, shows signs of stabilizing its emissions. Despite sustained coal use, data from the site CarbonBrief reveal that, in the third quarter of 2024, China’s emissions remained stable or slightly lower than in 2023. This result is attributed to the rapid growth in solar installations, though the trend remains sensitive to economic variations. Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), observes that if the construction sector remains contained, China could peak its emissions before the official 2030 target.
Global Fossil Fuel Peak Expected Before 2030
Worldwide, fossil fuel consumption, including oil, natural gas, and coal, is expected to reach a peak before 2030, according to IEA forecasts. This goal is supported by the growth of clean technologies, although oil-producing countries express doubts and still anticipate prolonged demand. Should this projection materialize, the world may witness a sustained decline in fossil fuel dependency, marking a crucial step towards carbon neutrality.
Energy Transition and Economic Growth
The former notion that economic growth and increased CO2 emissions go hand in hand now seems outdated. An analysis by the Potsdam Institute reveals that of the 1,500 regions studied over the past 30 years, about 30% succeeded in combining economic growth with emission reductions. The European Union (EU) exemplifies this trend: since 1990, CO2 emissions have decreased by 37%, while GDP increased by 68%. Additionally, the European Commission forecasts that renewable energy will surpass coal by 2025 to become the leading source of electricity production.
The rise of clean energy is also reflected in the increased adoption of heat pumps, electric vehicles, and especially solar power, which grew by 50% in 2023, the fastest rate in two decades. This gradual shift towards renewable energy indicates a global transformation, propelling the sector into a new era where economic development and sustainability are no longer mutually exclusive.
