The expansion of coal production in China could upset its commitments to reduce greenhouse gases. According to a study by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), increased coal capacity and the development of new mines could significantly increase emissions of methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas.
While China has positioned itself as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, its dependence on coal continues to weigh heavily on its climate ambitions.
Coal Production and High Risks of Methane Emissions
In 2023, coal production in China reached a record 4.7 billion tonnes, or around 50% of global output.
Added to this is a project to increase production capacity by 1.2 billion tonnes per year.
This expansion could generate a considerable increase in methane emissions, estimated by GEM at around 35 million tonnes, compared with 20 million according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
If production plans materialize, these emissions could rise by a further 10 million tonnes, exacerbating existing environmental challenges.
The Challenges of Methane Emissions Control
Methane is a greenhouse gas with a higher warming capacity than carbon dioxide, even though it decomposes more rapidly.
In 2023, methane emissions from fossil fuel operations reached around 170 billion cubic meters, more than Qatar’s annual natural gas production.
China, as the largest emitter of methane in the coal sector, faces major challenges in reducing these emissions.
The complexity of calculating emissions, exacerbated by invisible leaks detected by satellite, underlines the scale of the problem and the need for a proactive policy to mitigate these impacts.
Energy Strategies and Security of Supply
Despite the rapid development of renewable energy capacity, Beijing continues to invest in coal to guarantee its energy security.
This hybrid strategy is motivated by recent events such as prolonged droughts, which have affected hydroelectric production and led to power cuts.
At the same time, China maintains a set of “inactive but operational” mines, ready to be used in the event of an urgent need for energy supplies.
Progress and Obstacles in Reducing Emissions
In 2024, permits for new coal-fired power plants fell by 83%, signalling a possible shift in China’s energy policy.
However, global methane emissions remain well above the levels required to meet global climate targets.
IEA believes that significant methane reductions in fossil fuel operations can be achieved at low or even negative cost, if existing technologies are properly deployed.
New policies and initiatives, including Sino-American cooperation on methane, could offer long-term solutions, but their effectiveness will depend on strict and rapid implementation.
