Abdelmadjid Tebboune, candidate for a second term, is emphasizing his economic record to convince voters ahead of the September 7 ballot.
Since coming to power in 2019, he has focused his policies on restructuring public finances, fighting corruption and supporting the population’s income.
The Head of State has emphasized economic growth of 4% since 2022, supported by rising natural gas prices, a key sector for Algeria.
However, energy dependency remains a structural vulnerability of the Algerian economy.
Public finances strengthened but dependent
Tebboune announced an increase in foreign exchange reserves, now estimated at $70 billion, and boasted that he had “put the country back on track” in terms of financial management.
The State, which remains dependent on hydrocarbon revenues accounting for 95% of foreign exchange earnings, is benefiting from a favorable international context, with high energy prices since the start of the conflict in Ukraine.
These conditions have enabled the government to improve its budget balance and limit the deficit.
Internally, Tebboune’s anti-corruption policy has resulted in the prosecution of several influential figures from Bouteflika’s former regime, which is also contributing to this financial recovery.
However, the question of economic diversification remains a pressing one.
The reforms proposed remain insufficient to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
At a time when the world is moving towards energy transitions, Algeria is struggling to find growth drivers beyond hydrocarbons.
This situation exposes the country to the risk of volatility on international markets, with a direct impact on public finances and social policies.
Social strategy to ease internal tensions
In response to public expectations, Tebboune is implementing support measures such as raising public sector wages and pensions, and creating an unemployment benefit for young people.
At a recent rally in Oran, he promised to create 450,000 jobs and increase the monthly unemployment benefit.
This strategy aims to mitigate internal criticism, particularly from the Hirak movement, which denounces a lack of substantial political reform since the fall of Bouteflika.
Criticism persists, however.
Analysts such as Hasni Abidi of CERMAM in Geneva believe that these measures are more short-term crisis-management tactics than substantive solutions to Algeria’s socio-economic challenges.
The continued repression of dissenting voices and the absence of an inclusive national dialogue indicate that Tebboune’s governance remains rooted in the continuity of the existing system, rather than in a far-reaching political transformation.
Foreign relations and diplomacy under pressure
On the international stage, Tebboune is attempting to reassert Algeria’s influence, notably within the United Nations Security Council.
However, bilateral relations are under increasing strain.
A new crisis erupted with France, following Paris’s support for Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara, prompting the immediate recall of the Algerian ambassador.
This diplomatic chill complicates Algeria’s position in its relations with its Western and regional partners.
Tensions with Morocco, particularly over the Western Sahara, continue to fuel friction.
At the same time, the security situation and relations with Mali pose challenges for Algeria, which is seeking to play a stabilizing role in North Africa and the Sahel.
These diplomatic and security issues call for constant adjustments in a region marked by instability.
Tebboune’s next mandate, if renewed, will probably focus on consolidating economic gains and managing political and diplomatic dynamics.
Algeria’s ability to diversify its economy and calm its international relations will be decisive for its future stability.
