The French government does not anticipate any significant increase in regulated electricity sales tariffs (TRVE) for the years 2026 and 2027, even though the regulated access to historical nuclear electricity (Arenh) mechanism will end on December 31. Approximately 56% of residential customers, or around 19.75 million subscribers, will remain under TRVE, according to the Ministry of the Economy. This expected stability is based on the currently low wholesale prices for French electricity.
A new tariff framework replaces the Arenh system
Since 2011, Électricité de France (EDF) was required to sell up to 100 terawatt-hours (TWh) of nuclear electricity to alternative suppliers at a fixed price of €42/MWh, in line with European rules promoting competition. This mechanism ends at the close of the year, replaced by a new framework described by the ministry as a “tariff safeguard”. This system allows EDF greater freedom to sell its nuclear output on the open market while incorporating a redistribution mechanism in the event of excess revenue.
The new framework is based on the universal nuclear payment (VNU), introduced in the 2025 finance bill. It sets progressive thresholds at €78/MWh and €110/MWh, above which EDF’s revenues will be partially taxed and redistributed to all consumers, including both households and businesses, to reduce their bills.
A mechanism with no short-term effect for consumers
Based on current French wholesale electricity prices, around €50/MWh, consumers are unlikely to benefit from the redistribution mechanism in 2026. This forecast was also made by the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) in September.
The ministry states that the new mechanism aims to ensure EDF has the financial capacity to invest in the nuclear fleet while shielding consumers from potential price spikes. However, the effectiveness of the system remains dependent on future wholesale price developments, which could influence redistribution in the coming years.
