Emission decline slows in France with a limited 1.8% drop in 2024

France’s decarbonisation pace slowed significantly in 2024, according to Citepa, putting its 2030 climate targets at risk.

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Following a sharp reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2023, France recorded a modest 1.8% decrease in 2024, reaching 366 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e). The Centre interprofessionnel technique d’études de la pollution atmosphérique (Citepa), mandated by the French government to monitor emissions, released a provisional report on Friday highlighting the increasing difficulty in decarbonising key sectors of the economy. This reduction represents approximately 6.7 Mt CO2e less than the previous year, significantly below the average annual reduction trajectory of 15 Mt CO2e required through 2030 to meet European commitments.

Highest-emitting sectors remain stagnant

In 2023, French emissions had declined by 5.8%, largely due to the reactivation of nuclear power plants and reduced energy consumption following higher prices. However, this momentum dissipated in 2024, despite an 11.6% decrease in the energy industry sector. Road transport, residential and commercial buildings, as well as heavy industry, continue to act as barriers to more substantial progress. These sectors still show minimal emissions reductions, and in some instances, stagnation.

Strategic review and institutional pressure

The National Low-Carbon Strategy (Stratégie nationale bas-carbone, SNBC), currently under revision, targets a reduction to 270 Mt CO2e by 2030. According to Citepa, the current estimates may be overvalued due to insufficient consolidated data on the waste and agriculture sectors. The Haut Conseil pour le climat, an independent body established by President Emmanuel Macron, reiterated the need for increased efforts to stay on course. As of now, France has cut 31% of its gross emissions compared to 1990.

Political remobilisation and climate uncertainty

An Ecological Planning Council will be held on Monday under the leadership of Emmanuel Macron, with the participation of around fifteen ministers. The stated aim is to strengthen public policies in sectors with strong inertia, such as construction, transport, and forest management. According to the Elysée, several existing schemes could be scaled up to meet European requirements.

France’s trajectory reflects a broader international context. Germany recorded a 3% emissions reduction in 2024, while the United Kingdom posted a 4% decline. The United States stagnated at -0.2%, and China continued to increase emissions, despite strong growth in renewable energy capacity.

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